The Bear Cave #337

Welcome to The Bear Cave! What a week.

Our next special investigation for paid readers comes out this Thursday, August 6.

Spruce Point Capital Management published on China Gold International Resources (TSX: CGG / HKEX: 2099 — CAD $12.5 billion), a Chinese state-backed gold and copper miner. Spruce Point alleges the company is effectively captive to its parent, with roughly 99.6% of revenue coming from related-party sales to China National Gold, and highlights auditor Deloitte’s unexpected resignation.

Pelican Way Research published on REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY — $600 million), a rare-earth “mine-to-magnet” company that went public through a February 2026 reverse merger. Pelican Way brands it “a painfully stereotypical mining promotion,” noting its flagship Hoidas Lake deposit sold out of a prior owner’s bankruptcy for just $20,024 in 2015. Pelican Way wrote:

“We see no reason for this time to be any different from the rest. Every prior venture touched by this group of promoters has ended in bankruptcy, revocation, or a dead shell, and we believe REalloys shareholders are holding the latest iteration of the same trade.”

Hunterbrook Media published a follow-up on Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE — $60 billion), the solid-oxide fuel-cell maker whose stock climbed roughly 1,000% over the past year on promises to power AI data centers faster than the grid. Drawing on government meter data across four regions, Hunterbrook found the cells fall short of the efficiency, output, and lifespan Bloom has told investors to expect. The Bear Cave is owned and authored by Hunterbrook Media.

Bloom was at one point the largest position of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund.

Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:

1. Chief Financial Officer of Fortrea Holdings (NASDAQ: FTRE — $2 billion) was “placed on a paid leave of absence” three weeks following his appointment to CFO after a court restrained him “from working for the company as Chief Financial Officer.” The order came in a lawsuit filed by the CFO’s prior employer against him and Fortrea, alleging he “violated certain restrictive covenants and retained confidential information belonging to his prior employer.”

2. EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Warner Music Group (NASDAQ: WMG — $14 billion) “stepped down for personal reasons” on July 31, 2026 — barely 15 months after becoming CFO and less than three months into the added COO role. The company named an acting CFO and “has commenced a search for a new Chief Financial Officer.”

3. SVP, Chief Marketing Officer and Chief Revenue Officer of Unity Software (NYSE: U — $14 billion) was quietly removed from the company’s leadership page after roughly two and a half years. Unity’s VP and Head of Marketing was similarly dropped from the leadership page in February, after nine years, before leaving the company. In the past two weeks, Unity has appointed a new Chief Accounting Officer and one of the company’s independent directors resigned from the board.

4. Senior Vice President of Business Development at Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ: RCAT — $1.1 billion) left after just five months for a similar role at rival Redwire, in a departure the company did not disclose. Last week, the company’s Chief Revenue Officer was terminated for “cause” after less than two years in the job.

5. VP of Engineering at Fastly (NASDAQ: FSLY — $3.3 billion) jumped ship in an undisclosed departure after just sixteen months with the company. Last month, Fastly’s EVP of Strategy and Operations left in another undisclosed departure. Last summer, Fastly’s CEO and CFO departed.

Unannounced departures courtesy of Canary Data.

“Situational Awareness Down 67% in July in AI Stock Rout” — (The Wall Street Journal)

“Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge-fund firm Situational Awareness is down around 67% so far in July after incurring heavy losses on AI stocks…

Situational’s gains earlier in the year were so large that, even including July’s losses, the fund remains up about 80% on the year, the letter said…

Aschenbrenner partially blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run.”

In July, The Bear Cave and Hunterbrook Media published on StepStone (NASDAQ: STEP — $5.29 billion). Now, StepStone’s signature SPRING fund appears to have just had its worst month in history. Based on SPRING’s annual report, SpaceX represented roughly 20% of the fund at the end of Q1 — combining direct and indirect exposure. Given the initial surge after its IPO (which led to a banner June for SPRING), SpaceX could have represented ~25% (or more) of the SPRING fund as of July 1st.

SPCX drew down 36% in July. That means SPRING, all else equal, might have seen a roughly 8–9% drawdown (if it accurately / quickly remarks the stake). Based on its most recent tear sheet, that would represent SRPING’s biggest drawdown ever — by a factor of more than 15 — which kind of makes sense considering StepStone sets its own marks and rarely marks down its investments since they are not publicly traded. (The fund’s worst month in 44 months of operation appears to have been −0.48%.)

The good news for StepStone: Because it charges fees on marks — rather than realized returns — significant performance fees on the SpaceX gains have already been collected. That’s less good news for the everyday investors in the SPRING fund.

Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, Hunterbrook Capital is short STEP and long a basket of comparable securities at the time of publication. Hunterbrook Capital is also short BE and long a basket of comparable securities. Positions may change at any time. This newsletter is not investment advice or any recommendation. See full disclosures on our website.

PAA Research@ActAccordingly

Enormous applause for Edwin (@StockJabber) today for all of his hard work on $RBLX. I traded this name poorly given the opportunity set. His persistence here really paid off. This was a spectacular call.

1:49 PM · Jul 31, 2026 · 3.81K Views

1 Reply · 14 Likes

Raging Capital Ventures@RagingVentures

Some thoughts of mine on Archegos from May 2021 (below). Was Leopold using swaps? The value of Situational’s reported Q1 13F holdings pale in comparison to some of the exposure numbers being mentioned today, even adjusting for appreciation. I would observe that once Archegos

5:06 PM · Jul 30, 2026 · 9.29K Views

2 Replies · 2 Reposts · 35 Likes

dalibali@dalibali2

If everyone believes the sell off is an amazing entry point then you have to sell software since it’ll be a source of funds

4:58 AM · Jul 30, 2026 · 12.4K Views

9 Replies · 4 Reposts · 108 Likes

Yellow Lab Life Capital@YellowLabLife

Call the Koala crazy but being offline for 10 days, perhaps that July 22 news release from Sigma $SGML should have anticipated that little detail getting out and proactively saying whether or not 3Q guidance is maintained (from JPM conference presentation June 2026)

Pepper @Pepper31327139

@YellowLabLife https://t.co/Y7bjBHP9PM

12:07 PM · Jul 24, 2026 · 14.4K Views

2 Replies · 1 Repost · 16 Likes

MuddyWatersResearch@muddywatersre

In our mining short book, we almost always pair against 1+ junior miners with exposures to the same metal, so we’re playing underperformance. We also generally avoid shorting non-producing mines because there’s not yet a mechanism to force reality upon the hype.

Activ8Insights @Activ8Insights

"A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top." ; attributed to Mark Twain We reviewed 33 activist short campaigns against mining companies, from Bre-X's salted cores to the bottom of the Pacific, for our deepest dive yet into why the sector attracts investigators and how

2:13 PM · Jul 28, 2026 · 21.3K Views

2 Replies · 32 Likes

TBU@TBU12345678

some L/S pairs for H2 2026: - long Luckin / short Blank Street (max size) - long Cava / short Dos Toros - long Pop Up Bagels / short Apollo Bagels - long European weekends / short Hamptons - long Leopold memes / short Leopold haters - long vibes / short deep fundamental analysis

2:24 PM · Jul 31, 2026 · 20.2K Views

13 Replies · 1 Repost · 215 Likes

Blackmrprophet74, CPA@Blackmrphophet

$DKNG incurred $6.4billion in losses since going public. Investors hold material unrealized losses and yet Robins, with approval from the board, has charged the cost of his private jet to the company for the past years, shareholders bearing the expense. No respect🍸 @mattkalish

12:08 AM · Jul 28, 2026 · 5.05K Views

1 Reply · 4 Reposts · 24 Likes

John Arnold@johnarnold

My philosophy when I used to hire traders was that the optimal number of past blow ups was one.

12:55 AM · Jul 31, 2026 · 243K Views

63 Replies · 79 Reposts · 2.46K Likes

Until Thursday,

The Bear Cave

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The Bear Cave is Not Investment Advice. See Full Disclosures Here. Twitter: @BearCaveEmail