2026 Topps Flagship NFL Deep Dive

First things first...this release is massive.

And it’s not really in my nature to do things halfway, so this will be the first of at least two deep dives into 2026 Topps Flagship NFL.

For this one, we’re holding off on the typical Value Metrics. Anything involving dollars and where your money is best spent will come in the second installment. Probably in another two or three days.

Tonight, we’re talking production.

And let me be clear...I’m not here to bag on Flagship for doing Flagship things. This product is supposed to be big. It’s supposed to be everywhere. It’s the first Flagship NFL product in over a decade and it’s supposed to be in the hands of a billion people. 10x the hobby bro.

My objective here is to simply put some actual numbers behind this monstrosity. Anyone can tell you it’s printed to the moon.

But what if I told you it isn’t?

We’ll get to that.

If you’re interested at all in this release, you’ve probably already ripped some. You’ve watched breaks. You know what we’re working with here. So surely, there are no surprises, right?

OK, maybe a few.

Welcome to 2026 Topps Flagship NFL: Episode 1.

I’m going to keep this one civil. My purpose here is not to roast the odds sheet into oblivion. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention this absolute absurdity.

Over the last couple years of deep diving these things, the largest odds sheet I’d encountered was Topps Chrome Basketball at roughly 600 line items.

Flagship NFL scoffs at such amateurism. 42 pages and 1100 rows later, I have instant onset carpal tunnel from endless scrolling.

Good thing I’m my own boss at my day job. Somehow I don’t think “I wrestled with a football card odds sheet all weekend” is gaining me much sympathy from anyone.

You might think an interminable odds sheet would be a direct result of the size of the release. I mean, it kinda is. But not really.

The most peculiar thing about this beast is that huge swaths of it are unnecessary. For the life of me, I just can’t figure out what they were thinking.

I’m not going to bore you with the intricacies, but in a nutshell this thing is so unnecessarily and overtly overcomplicated that it feels intentional. I have a hard time believing any person with the desire to do spreadsheets as their job can make this many errors by accident.

At some point, you have to start wondering if they’re just trolling us. All the extraneous meaningless numbers indicate that’s a possibility. I assure you, there are not 100 million packs produced of any format in this release, despite what the odds sheet says multiple times.

It seems like Topps may not really want nerds looking deep into their soul. Well, whatever. I actually had a lot going on this weekend. I just chose violence and made time for their nonsense anyway.

Total cards in the product:

~591,893,900

Yes, it’s big. The biggest, in fact. Since the old junk wax days at least. How big is it, you might ask? The last biggest recent flagship release was 2026 Topps Series 1 at ~558m total cards. This is 6% more than that. 2025/26 Flagship NBA was a paltry 429.7m in comparison.

“But Squatch...you said it wasn’t printed to the moon!”

Well, it’s not. Technically.

20 point cards are .020 inches thick. And we have ~589.7m of them. Assuming 1.7m Silver Pack Mojos at 35 points, and roughly 600k Relics & Auto Relics at an average of 100 point thickness, stacking them all in a pile only reaches 188 miles high, or 0.08% of the way to the moon.

Does it get us into space? Yes. But it’s a far cry from the moon. We won’t get there until 2030 Flagship NFL.

Total production by format:

Keep in mind, this is not an exact science. Even though my numbers appear precise, they are merely estimates based on odds with the goal being a 5% margin of error.

Hobby- 196,600 boxes (16,383 cases)

Jumbo- 69,032 boxes (11,505 cases)

Hangers- 926,000 boxes (14,469 cases)

Fat Packs- 1,923,077 packs (17,806 cases)

Value Boxes- 1,349,583 boxes (33,740 cases)

Megas- 497,337 boxes (24,867 cases)

London Games Megas- 21,917 boxes (1,096 cases)

Wal Mart Exclusive Megas- 303,030 boxes (7,576 cases)

Super Box (Funko)- 94,200 boxes (7,850 cases)

Club Exclusive Boxes (Flagship Collection)- 483,793 boxes (40,316 cases)

Fanatics Value Boxes- 100,807 boxes (2,520 cases)

Bulk packs- 1,296,405 packs

Expected hit rates by format:

• Hobby: 0.5 autos (1/2 of boxes should contain an auto, half a relic), 1.8 parallels (this sounds abnormally low and may require watching some breaks to verify), 9.75 Inserts, 0.85 numbered cards

• Jumbo: 1 auto, 1 relic, 7.1 parallels, 14.25 inserts, 2.45 numbered cards

• Hangers: 1 auto per 63.5 boxes (1 per case), 1.25 parallels/box, 3.3 inserts, 1 numbered card per 8.75 boxes, 1 relic per 24.1 boxes

• Fat Packs: 1 auto per 146 packs, 0.3 parallels, 3 inserts, 1 numbered card per 18.9 packs, 1 relic per 52.4 packs

• Value Boxes: 1 auto per 53.2 boxes (0.75 per case), 2 parallels/box, 6.1 inserts, 1 numbered card per 5.9 boxes, 1 relic per 11.2 boxes

• Megas: 1 auto per 22.95 boxes (0.87 per case), 1.5 parallels/box, 17.4 inserts, 1 numbered per 2.85 boxes, 1 relic per 4.3 boxes

• Fanatics Value box: 1 auto per 61.5 boxes (1 per ~1.5 cases), 5.2 parallels/box, 7.75 inserts, 1 numbered per 3.75 boxes, 1 relic per 11.3 boxes

• Bulk packs: 1 auto per 252 packs, 0.1 parallels/pack, 1.7 inserts, 1 numbered per 129 packs, 1 relic per 266 packs

• London Games Megas: 1 auto per 20.9 boxes, 2.25 parallels/box, 3.3 inserts, 1 numbered per 8.7 boxes, 1 relic per 4.5 boxes

• WalMart Exclusive Mega Box: 1 auto per 10.7 boxes, 6.3 parallels, 14.9 inserts, 1 numbered card per 1.85 boxes, 1 relic per 5 boxes

• Super box odds (including Funko and Club Exclusive Flagship Collection SKUs) only call out odds for the “bonus packs” within. This allows us to calculate hit rates of the bonus packs, but not the regular packs they contain.

• Funko Pop Super Boxes contian 1 5-card bonus pack, which will has no Autos or Relics. Rare inserts (Funko Base cards) are found 1 per 192 Boxes.

• Club Exclusive Super Boxes (Flagship Collection), contain 3 5-card bonus packs with autos falling 1 per 580 boxes, no relics, 3 inserts/box and 1 numbered card per 6 boxes. For hit rates on the regular packs, I would assume they’re similar to mega packs.

You will also notice one more SKU on the odds- Kids Megas. Just avoid. They’re not even worth doing adding to the heat map because there is no heat. The best potential pulls are Aquas and Rainbow Foils. These should only come into play if they’re dirt cheap and your kid doesn’t care about actual hits.

Percentage of Numbered Autos by Format:

1) Hobby- 57.55%

2) Jumbo- 54.13%

3) WalMart Megas- 50.85%

4) Megas- 49.52%

5) Value boxes- 48.91%

6) Bulk Packs- 48.82%

7) Hangers- 47.3%

8) Fat Packs- 45.22%

9) London Games Megas- 19.91%

10) Fanatics Value Boxes- 16.66%

There are two styles of rare inserts in Flagship NFL. Some have a rainbow of parallels. Those include:

• Class of 26

• Touchdown Machines

• 1000 Yard Club

• 4000 Yard Club.

• Wild Card Moments

• Divisional Dominance

• Conference Kings

• All Hail the Champ

I’m including those because even the base of each are at least a case hit in rarity.

Then we have the actually rare inserts, which will end up being the most desirable.

Those include:

• Struttin’

• Billboard Material

• Touchdown

And of course All Kings, both vets and rookies.

Notably, there are two separate entries for All Kings on the odds sheet. The second one (at the very bottom of the sheet) was intended to be the 5-card checklist of Rookie All Kings (which interestingly all seem to be redemptions.) These look more scarce based on odds, but they actually have the same print runs as the vet versions, just with a smaller checklist.

Also of note, there are some interesting rare inserts which look to have been intended, but didn’t make it into the product. All Aces, King Me, Heavy Hitters, & Homefield Advantage. Interesting choice to leave these off.

Rare Insert Pull Rates (including all rare inserts):

• Hobby- 1 per 1.78 boxes

• Jumbo- 1 per 1.14 boxes

• Hangers- 1 per 66.25 boxes

• Fat Packs- 1 per 132.5 packs

• Value Boxes- 1 per 44.2 boxes

• Megas- 1 per 18.9 boxes

• Fanatics Value- 1 per 33.1 boxes

• Bulk Packs- 1 per 280.9 packs

• London Games Mega- 1 per 22.1 boxes

• WalMart Megas- 1 per 22.1 boxes

Now here’s the Rare Insert Pull Rate by format of only the rarest inserts (Struttin’, Billboard Material, Touchdown, All Kings):

• Hobby- 1 per 11.7 boxes (~1 per case)

• Jumbo- 1 per 5.9 boxes (~1 per case)

• Hangers- 1 per 1,166 boxes (~18 cases)

• Fat Packs- 1 per 2,332 packs (~21.6 cases)

• Value Boxes- 1 per 777.5 boxes (~19.5 cases)

• Megas- 1 per 333.2 boxes (~16.67 cases)

• Fanatics Values- 1 per 583 boxes (~14.6 cases)

• Bulk Packs- N/A

• London Games Mega- 1 per 388.75 boxes (~19.5 cases)

• WalMart Mega- 1 per 388.75 boxes (~19.5 cases)

Unfortunately, this is where I must leave you for the moment. In the next episode, I will dive deeper into format value metrics, my takeaways and add all the print runs to the Substack.

We are a long way from done, I assure you.