This one will be short and sweet.
You’re on your own.
The end.
OK, maybe you deserve a little explanation. The Squatch tries to be an equitable fella. And I’d sure love to help you out on this one. But for reasons only Topps knows, that just won’t be possible.
You might think that what is sure to be a super-limited product with a super tidy odds sheet would be an easy slam dunk from an odds calculation perspective.
And...you’d be wrong.
Topps just can’t get out of their own way and botched another one. Literally a 40-line odds sheet. About as simple as it gets. All wrong.
If you scored this one EQL, the Collector Box specifically, suffice it to say you did well. The Squatch and the Mrs went 0 for 2.
If there is a saving grace here, it’s that Topps was totally transparent about what to expect from the boxes before the product dropped.
Box price: $150
4 packs of 7 cards per box.
2 Numbered Parallels, 1 Insert.
Autos fall 1:10 boxes.
Also available on a per-pack bases from Topps direct for a few minutes, though the packs seem to be far less loaded with hits than the boxes. They are not simply packs from the same boxes as stated Auto pull rate from packs is 1:100 packs.
Checklist is out...and full of Japanese players you’ve probably never heard of. And some you have.
Cards look sick. And there will be some verifiable nukes come from this product- Autos of Ohtani, Ichiro, Roki, Yamamoto, Murakami, all with low numbered versions. There’s even a Dual Generational Greats Auto of Ohtani and Japanese legend Sadaharu Oh.
Seems like a fantastic product. Would be nice to put some numbers behind it.
Here’s the actual problem:
Odds guy must have come to work hungover again. In no way do the odds match what the actual product looks like.
For starters, aside from Sensational Samurai, none of the Insert sets match what’s on the checklist.
According to the official checklist, the remaining inserts sets are Generational Greats, Neon Nights, & Samurai Spirit. Yet somehow on the odds sheet we have Samurai Sluggers, Samurai Strikers, & Championship Memories. The checklist sizes don’t even match up, so it’s not simply a case of changing the Insert names at the last minute and not letting the odds sheet guy know.
If I go with the stated odds, then the math says there would be something like 150k boxes produced, which I highly doubt is accurate.
Additionally, with the long Auto odds, this would put the Auto pull rate at 1:312 boxes. Topps already said it’s 1:10.
So I am forced to just assume that the odds guy and checklist guy were squabbling that day and the result is we all lose. Except those that won the EQL...you’ll be fine.
If they happen to bestow some actual factual odds on us at some point, I’ll happily break it down for you.
As mentioned, the Squatch made an attempt...and took the obligatory EQLLLLLL.
I’m a little hesitant on the individual packs as they could be a little dry, but the boxes are an absolute no-brainer at $150. There’s no doubt they will go for considerably more after launch.
I love niche little products like this, even if it’s essentially an Ohtani money grab. But a 2-box limit or something would be nice so us plebs can actually get some. But hey, at least I have some cases of Chrome Jennie coming in a couple months.
SamuraiSquatch out.
Print Runs:
Sorry. No can do.
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