Reading · The Crisis Report

Polling shows that (ONLY) somewhere between 62% and 74% of Americans think that increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century are mainly or somewhat due to “pollution from human activities”.

34% attribute rising temperatures to “natural changes in the environment”.

In America, the science you believe in depends on who you vote for.

About half of MAGAt voters don’t accept the reality of “human caused” Climate Change. Together with the roughly 30% who accept that reality but, don’t think it’s very serious, they form a majority of voters. This is WHY there has never been enough social pressure to DO anything “real” about it.

Around half of the population STILL doesn’t think Climate Change is going to personally effect them.

Most people aren’t paying attention to “climate change” stories and most people aren’t talking about or discussing climate change. The result of this, is that MOST people actually know very little about “Climate Change”.

Even people who do think they they will be “harmed” by Climate Change, often think that it will be LATE this century before it becomes “severe”. Like in the 2070’s or 2080’s. Which, if you are 30 or older, means you have a reasonable likelihood of dying before “Climate Change” becomes “Climate Crisis”.

That’s what the Majority thinks, and they vote accordingly. To them, 2100 still seems “far away”.

For those who are five to twenty five, “GenZ”, the Climate Crisis is going to be the rest of their lives. Their “best years”, when the world wasn’t dying, are already behind them. Ahead lies only the ruin that will be the rest of their lives.

Those being born today, this year, are Gen Omega. The “End of the Line” Gen. The first kids born, not in the golden age of their elders, but in it’s twilight and collapse.

For children being born today, the Climate Crisis is going to be the “defining reality” of their lives. They will be 75 in 2100. Our actions up to this point have sentenced them to live with that, for “the rest of their natural lives”.

Here’s how much the dialog has shifted in the last few years. I USED to get asked fairly often, “How much warming do you think will happen this century”?

This is a critical question and one that generates a LOT of discussion. Here are some basic facts.

Currently the atmospheric CO2 level is at 424.29ppmCO2. The yearly median level for 2022 was 417.2ppm.

The yearly median level will probably be around 427ppm for 2025.

Atmospheric CO2 levels saw a significant increase from 2023 to 2024, with the global average increasing by a record +3.75ppm. This was after a +3.21ppm increase in 2023 and what looks like another +3ppm increase in 2025.

That’s the BAU level of CO2 if nothing gets better or worse.

For different reasons in both Alarmist Climate Science and the paleoclimate record it means about +6°C of warming.

**Case 1** — Mainstream CS says +3°C of warming at 560ppm, a 2XCO2 iteration of +280ppm. **Case 2** — Alarmist CS says +6°C of warming at 560ppm, a 2XCO2 iteration of +280ppm. **Case 3** — My interpretation of the paleoclimate data indicates warming of +6°C from the +280ppmCO2 jump from 280ppm in 1850 to the projected 560ppm level by 2070. The Alarmist model and the paleoclimate record don’t start really diverging until around 1120ppmCO2. At that point the paleoclimate record indicates a GMST about +2°C hotter that the Alarmist models and about +8°C hotter than the Mainstream models.

The Mainstream value for the CO2 equivalence (CO2e) of that CH4 is 53.2ppmCO2e. That’s based on the 100 year warming (GWP100) potential of the CH4.

CALCULATION

1900 parts per billion (ppb) of methane (CH4) is equivalent to approximately 53.2 ppm of CO2 when using a 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 28, as a GWP of 21–25 is sometimes used for this calculation. To calculate this, 1900 ppb is converted to 1.9 ppm, then multiplied by the GWP value of 28ppmCO2e to get 53.2 ppm of CO2e.

The short term GWP for CH4 is GWP20 and its CO2e value is around 85. This is based on the “half-life” of CH4’s warming effect being 12–14 years.

So, in the first 20 years a single tonne of CH4 is released it is equal to about 85 tonnes of CO2 but, over a 100 year period this value drops down to about 28 tonnes of CO2.

Global methane (CH4) emissions increased by approximately 20% over the last 20 years, rising from about 530 million tons (per year) in 2000 to around 630 million tons (per year) by 2020, with the rate of increase accelerating in recent years. The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker report said over 120 million tons was released from the fossil fuel sector in 2024, close to the record high in 2019.

The last 20 years the CH4 level has increased about +150ppm or +0.15ppm. Its GWP value is roughly 0.15 x 85 = 12.75ppmCO2e.

If you consider the increase in CH4 levels from about 750ppb (preindustrial) to the current 1950ppb then the effect of CH4 becomes 1,200ppb or 1.2ppm x 28 (GWP100 value) equals 33.6ppmCO2e.

There are a number of ways to look at the increasing levels of CH4.

Looking at it from warming since the preindustrial period, CH4 has caused somewhere between 26% to 38% of the warming we have experienced over the last 200 years.

This is really BAD news. This is FAST warming that’s “on top of” or “in addition” to the expected CO2 warming.

For example, suppose you expect to get +2°C of warming from increasing CO2 levels from 280ppm to 360ppm. CO2 levels increase from 280ppm to 360ppm and temperatures increase +2°C.

Then you find out that 32% of the warming, or around +0.7°C was due to increases in the atmospheric CH4 level. That implies that you STILL have an ADDITIONAL +0.7°C of warming to go from the CO2.

If CH4 levels are falling, then your endpoint will be less than +2.7°C. However, if they are stable, or increasing, then +2.7°C is, at a minimum, where you will end up.

In our case of +1.5°C of warming over the 1850 baseline.

If approximately 1/3 of planetary warming since the preindustrial period has been due to CH4 (+0.5°C), then there are two ways to SEE that fact. Either the +140ppm increase in the CO2 level from 280ppm to 420ppm caused ONLY +1.0°C of warming and the Mainstream estimate for 2XCO2 was 30% too high.
OR, there is AT LEAST +0.5°C of additional CO2 warming that is now “locked in”. Which, if CH4 levels stay constant, will result in around +2.0°C of warming when equilibrium is reached.

I consider the latter case to be the most likely. What I think, based on my analysis, is that the CH4 is “masking” some of the warming implied at these CO2 levels. We have hit +1.5°C of warming and we THINK “well that’s all the warming”. Ummm…no.

Today’s warming of 1.5°C over the 1850 baseline is — +1.0°C of CO2 warming and +0.5°C of CH4 warming. This implies that another +0.5°C of CO2 warming is on its way.

EVEN IF WE HIT NET-ZERO TOMORROW

The implication of the CH4 increase since the preindustrial period is that a roughly 30% increase in the GMST is “locked in”.

In any case, using a value of 53.2ppmCO2e for the CH4 ENERGY forcing gives us a current CO2e level of:

425ppmCO2 + 53.2ppmCO2e(CH4) = 478ppmCO2e (CO2+CH4)

The 36-month running average for Earth albedo (reflectivity) hit another record low as of the latest data release for July, 2025 by CERES. Notice how the albedo declines sharply around 2013 when China starts phasing out high sulfur coal. Then around 2017 it stabilizes for a couple of years, only to start gradually declining as high sulfur marine diesel is being phased out by 2020. Then, about 3 years later, the albedo plunges again as those cooling sulfate aerosols have been “washed out” of the atmosphere. Since 2014 this drop in the albedo has had the same effect as adding 138ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere. Effectively pushing us to 560ppmCO2e.

The -0.5% dimming of the albedo since 2014 has a climate forcing equal to either 60–70ppmCO2e or +138ppmCO2e being added to the atmosphere.

CORRECTION/REFINEMENT

I have been saying that “Both Hansen and NASA/GISS agree on that number.” Ahh, foolish me. GISS and Hansen agree on the amount of ENERGY forcing this represents, they disagree on how that translates into CO2 “forcing”. Because they assign a HIGH value to 2XCO2 the Alarmists predict a climate forcing response to be about double that of Mainstream Climate Science. Hansen is estimating the HIGH value of 138ppmCO2e for the change in the Albedo since 2014. GISS is placing this value at 60–70ppmCO2e.

Using the “Best Case” NASA/GISS estimates, the CO2e level has reached.

BEST CASE — MAINSTREAM

425ppmCO2 + 53.2ppmCO2e(CH4) + 65ppmCO2e(Ab)= 543.2ppmCO2e (CO2+CH4+Albedo Dimming)

543ppmCO2e — Right Now, here today.

WORST CASE — ALARMIST and PALEOCLIMATE FINDINGS

425ppmCO2 + 53.2ppmCO2e(CH4) + 137ppmCO2e(Ab)= 543.2ppmCO2e (CO2+CH4+Albedo Dimming) = 616.2ppmCO2e(CO2+CH4+Albedo Dimming)

616.2ppmCO2e — Right Now, here today.

EITHER WAY

2XCO2 has effectively been breached. Mostly due to changes in the albedo, mostly due to “cloud diminishment”.

Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity — May 2025 James Hansen…..columbia.edu/~jeh1/mail…

Rapid surge in global warming mainly due to reduced planetary albedo…..12/05/24

Researchers find a potential explanation for the unusually sudden temperature rise in 2023: reduced low-level cloud cover limits Earth’s ability to reflect solar radiation

IMPORTANT POINT

Albedo Dimming has NOTHING to do with the CO2 level. Even if Net-Zero stabilizes temperature increases from our CO2 emissions. Temperatures will STILL GO UP from the “albedo effect”. This has potentially doubled the effect of the +125ppm increase in CO2 since 1850. IN JUST THE LAST 11 YEARS.

Any statement that reaching Net-Zero will “halt warming” that doesn’t deal with the “albedo effect” is pure Hopium.

Yet, that is what Mainstream Climate Science is telling us.

SO.

Could the Earth really warm another +1.5°C to reach +3°C in just the next 25 years. Is that even possible?

This chart shows a “side by side” comparison of what Mainstream Climate Science, Alarmist Climate Science, and the paleoclimate record indicate the level of warming will likely be at different concentrations of atmospheric CO2. ORANGE lines represent “doubling” points or 2XCO2 intervals. The Mainstream 2XCO2 value is +3°C to +4°C, the Alarmist value is +5°C to +6°C, The paleoclimate value is +8°C for each iteration of 2XCO2 and its iteration values are different from the Mainstream/Alarmist models. This is MY INTERPRETATION of what the paleoclimate data indicates. It’s where I think the science is heading. The RED bars represent a possible “cloud diminishment” feedback that could boost temperatures +8°C RAPIDLY.

Imagine two scenarios A and B.

In Case “A” the CO2 level is 180ppm, the GMST is around +8°C, and CO2 levels increase SLOWLY. Like +100ppm over 6,000 years slowly.

In Case “B” the CO2 level is 180ppm, the GMST is around +8°C, and CO2 levels JUMP SUDDENLY by +100ppm. Like in less than 100 years suddenly.

Now, we KNOW from scenario A that the GMST increases by +6°C at a rate of about +1°C per 1,000 years. That’s actually what’s happened multiple times over the last 800,000 years and we can see and measure it in the ice core record.

Scenario B is the one that there is NO geologic analog for in the entire 485my history of life on Earth. The ONLY thing that comes close is the Chicxulub Impact Event (dino killer 65mya).

However, we do know that the minimum answer in case B has to +6°C.

The same amount of CO2 should generate the same Equilibrium Climate Response. However, there is no guideline for “how fast” the Climate System is capable of processing a “bump” in CO2 levels on that scale.

Which means.

Case B is different than Case A. The SPEED at which Climate Change happens makes the response to the increase in CO2 MUCH WORSE.

In my papers looking at Mass Extinction Events, I point out that there are periods when the GMST got to the same level as the End Triassic Extinction. However, in these other “hot periods” there was no mass extinction event. The level of extinctions was barely above the normal background rate.

The earliest ME’s (Ordovician and Devonian) are the two BLUE lines. It is believed that they were the result of falling temperatures causing mass die offs of oceanic life. The Permian ME is the first ORANGE line 250mya. At that time the planet was about +4°C (+7.2F) hotter than our current GMST temperature of 15°C (59°F) (GREEN line). We now know that the GMST jumped as much as +20°C (+46°F) up to +35°C (95°F) in just 75,000 years. 90% of life on the planet died during this period. The next ORANGE line is the Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction around 200mya. About 80% of life on Earth died. However, look at the two GREEN lines. Both of them coincide with relatively minor extinction events. Despite global temperatures climbing to levels that in the Permian and Triassic caused devastation to the planetary biosphere. The main difference between a MAJOR extinction event and a minor event seems to be the SPEED at which they happen.

The difference is the SPEED of the warming.

Case B could see Equilibrium Temperature levels that are MUCH higher than Case A. Because of the cascade of environmental feedbacks caused by the speed of the warming.

The paleoclimate record suggests that’s the “most likely” outcome.

NOW

We just lived through temperatures going from +1.1°C over baseline in 2021 to +1.6°C by 2024. A Rate of Warming of +0.125°C PER YEAR.

At that Rate of Warming, that’s +1.25°C per decade and +3°C happens by 2040.

We just lived through 3 years of warming at that rate, clearly the Earth “is capable” of it. To say it’s”impossible” is to ignore reality, AND it could be WORSE than that. We DO NOT know how fast the Earth is capable of responding to a jolt of CO2 of the magnitude caused by the albedo decline.

SO.

Theoretically, +1.5°C of warming can happen in just the next 15 years. Based on just what we have seen, it is possible.

THAT WOULD BE “WORST CASE”.

A CO2e level of effectively 560ppm, or 2XCO2, implies +3°C of warming — “Best Case”. That’s 100% Mainstream Climate Science numbers.

We ARE about to see how FAST it actually takes the Climate System to respond to a jolt of this magnitude.

Case Mainstream

Mainstream Climate Models are saying +3°C of warming over baseline in about 60 years (2085) at a Rate of Warming of +0.27°C per decade. They also are saying that warming will effectively halt when Net-Zero is reached AND that CH4 levels will rapidly fall as well.

Case Alarmist

Alarmist Climate Models are saying +3°C of warming over baseline in about 40 years (2065) at a Rate of Warming of +0.36°C per decade. They don’t see that as an endpoint. Ultimately they think as much as +12°C of warming may be “in the pipeline”. Although their models indicate much of this warming will happen gradually over several thousand years, up to +5°C of warming is possible by 2100.

Standard and Poors Global think there is a 50% chance of +2.3°C by 2040, implying +3°C by 2055.

Sustainability Insights: Why Planning For A 2.3°C Warmer World Is Critical This Decade And Next — S&P Global 09/15/25

Here are the “key” points of their modeling.

The German Physical Society (German: Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft, DPG), the oldest organization of “physicists” globally with a worldwide membership of 50,668, stated recently in their climate analysis.

Global warming is accelerating — A call for decisive action — Sept 2025

Global warming has entered a period of acceleration.

Already around 2050, warming could reach even +3°C compared to the pre-industrial period, with the rise in temperature in Germany being significantly higher than the global average.

Results from climate models suggest that warming to +5°C is likely by the end of the century.

These are not “crazy doomers” or “woke” environmentalists.

If you want to argue for a longer timeframe that’s fine.

It could be 2055.

Or 2065.

Or 2085.

No matter what, +3°C of warming is what’s coming.

This is what “the rest of their natural life” holds for “Gen Omega”

If you are GenZ now is the time to reassess your planned career choices and “life trajectory”.

Morgan Stanley is advising their clients that demand for air conditioning is going to BOOM over the next five years. There’s also a worldwide shortage of elevator repair technicians. Either of these jobs are likely to be in demand for a long time, even as things “fall apart slowly”.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

rc 10/10/2025

ADDENDUM

In 2009 ABC did a documentary on Climate Change that is still one of the best things out there in terms of depicting how it is a “slow motion” catastrophe that will play out over a lifetime.

Here it is.

Earth 2100 is a television program that was presented by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) network on June 2, 2009, and was aired on the History Channel in January 2010 and was shown through the year.

Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what “a worst-case” future might look like if humans did not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include current climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.

The events following the life of a fictitious storyteller, “Lucy” (told through the use of motion comics, or limited animation), as she describes how the events affect her life. The program included predictions of a dystopian Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085, and 2100 by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists, including Jared Diamond, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Peter Gleick, James Howard Kunstler, Heidi Cullen, Alex Steffen, and Joseph Tainter.

It ended with a quote from writer Alex Steffen, saying “Kids born today will see us navigate past the first greatest test of humanity, which is: Can we actually be smart enough to live on a planet without destroying it?”

For Gen Omega this is going to be their life.

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