Rakes Report #284: What can Notre Dame expect from C.J. Carr this season?

From nearly every available metric and perspective, C.J. Carr had a phenomenal first year as a starter. To remind: 67% completion rate, over nine yards per attempt, 27 total touchdowns to six interceptions. He was 8th in ESPN’s QBR stat, 13th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade among those who had at least 300 dropbacks and was a key cog in the third best F+ offense. In his first career start, on the road, against a team that would come within a drive of the national title, Carr rallied his team from a double-digit fourth quarter deficit to tie the game.

America noticed. Carr is one of the favorites for the Heisman and when Bill Connelly did his pre-spring Power 4 quarterback rankings, it was Carr he put atop the list, noting that despite the excellence on the run game the Irish still “ranked first nationally in third-and-long success rate (7 or more yards to go).” Here is a cool chart from Bill’s article I am borrowing (more area covered the better):

He wasn’t alone in his Carr respect. When Cover 3 did their returning quarterback rankings episode last month, Carr was ranked first, third and fifth on the three hosts’ lists and there was little discussion about the elevated positioning because everyone agreed he’s great. (If you were curious, the guys ranked ahead of Carr twice were Arch Manning and Dante Moore.)

(Sidebar: One broader takeaway from Connelly’s piece and the Cover 3 discussion is that this appears to be a really good and deep quarterback season. The guys ranked 18th to 23rd on Connelly’s list, for example: Marcel Reed, John Mateer, Demond Williams Jr., Avery Johnson, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Kevin Jennings. That’s three guys who’ve already gotten their teams to the playoff, some talented underclassman and a Kansas State dual threat who could finally reach his potential with Collin Klein back in Manhattan.)

And yet something bothersome is bouncing around the back of my mind. I’m glad Notre Dame didn’t have many stressful games over the second half of the season, but I do wish Carr had a few more opportunities in high-leverage situations against quality defenses and/or in adverse conditions. When a bit of pressure presented itself, more often than not the best backfield in the nation and/or the defense handled things. For example:

vs. Southern Cal (44th in F+ defense): Nasty weather and a Trojans defense dedicated to taking the pass away resulted in a subpar effort, including a bonkers interception on third-and-goal from the two. When the visitors took the lead in the second half it was setting up a major drive for Carr, but then Jadarian Price went ahead and saved everyone the trouble by running the kickoff back. Final three drives of the game were seven plays (five runs) ending in a missed field goal, seven plays (six runs) ending in a one-yard Carr touchdown rush for a ten-point lead and then eight plays (seven runs, only pass came on fourth and fifteen to conclude things) to essentially kill the clock. Carr’s second worst PFF grade of the season.

at Boston College (80th): After some scuffling from both sides of the ball for the Irish, Boston College was driving in the fourth quarter down 18-10 when Adon Shuler came down with an interception. Backed up all the way on their own six-yard line, Jeremiyah Love was kind enough to take the first snap for 94 yards and make it a two-score game. Good game overall by Carr, his second best PFF grade of the season.

vs. Navy (79th): A dominant performance going 13 of 16 for three touchdowns and no picks, averaging nearly 14 yards per attempt.

at Pittsburgh (33rd): Hostile road environment, hyped up GameDay crowd and some nerves after a missed field goal on the first drive but the Irish defused much of the pressure with a 56-yard Love spin move score and Tae Johnson pick six. Carr threw some touchdowns to Malachi Fields but two picks, including one returned for a score. Carr’s worst PFF grade of the season.

vs. Syracuse (87th): It was 21-0 before the offense was on the field, and on their second snap Love scored from 45 yards out. Marking this down as “Low Stress” for Carr.

at Stanford (65th): Crisp game from Carr but a run heavy gameplan over the Hellmouth. Notre Dame scored on its first four possessions — including the 84-yard Joshua Burnham dime — to put this away immediately.

Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse are quality college receivers but it’s unlikely either are drafted as high as Malachi Fields and Carr has to sort through a bevy of options to fill out the rest of his arsenal. I would wager Notre Dame gets quality tight end play (and a good chance it’s even better than that), but Eli Raridon was an athletic 6’7” target with good hands who will be selected in the NFL Draft (maybe as early as the second day). I do not need to remind you about what having the Love-Price combo does for easing the life of a quarterback, offense and football team as a whole. There’s a sense that “Good QB + Offseason = Better QB” but progress isn’t always linear and the arrow doesn’t always point up.

All hesitations expressed above are mitigated by the fact there’s so much to like and it makes sense everyone is so high on Carr. This is his second year starting, but it’s his third year of college football and his third year with the same offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. There’s the obvious arm talent, the sack avoidance ability and the smart pre-snap checks that are only going to become wiser and wiser as he gets more comfortable. Instead of an offseason in a heated quarterback battle with two other Power 4 starters, he can work to develop rapports with the new skill players and settle into his role as one of the most important players of the 2026 college football season. Also aiding the cause is that Carr will be paired with an elite defense that he will get to test himself against every single day before it limits the number of shootouts the Irish are involved in during the regular season.

We’ll get some sense early. For all their foibles and follies last year, Wisconsin was 28th in F+ defense and Luke Fickell is smart on that side of the ball. I don’t know if they’ll have the horses to make it that interesting, but Pat Fitzgerald, Barry Odom and Bill Belichick all have fielded successful defenses before and might show Carr something new. The major test looms on October 17, in what will likely be a night game in Provo, at elevation, against a defense that was 20th in F+ last year (although they did lose their coordinator). Good Miami and SMU teams come to town the following month.

I have faith that Mike Denbrock will have Carr comfortable and thriving by the time we get to Lambeau, but if there are wobbles along the way remember he’s still only started twelve games, he’ll need to adjust to life minus four skill players going in the top half of the draft and there’s plenty more room to grow.

A few other things I’m curious about when spring practice begins on Friday.

After a robust transfer portal haul and massively successful roster retention effort, there are very few questions about the Notre Dame defense. (“Who will play nickel?” is one of them, but there are so many options and enough arrows pointing toward Dallas Golden I’m not losing sleep over it at this point.) Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young returning is a big check-plus, and as we discussed when he transferred, Keon Keeley’s combination of pedigree, years in Alabama’s strength program and late season productivity in 2025 lead me to believe he’s a great fit as your third defensive end at worst.

But who steps in after him, or if an injury befalls our top three? Loghan Thomas played 39 snaps last year (and converted that into five pressures -- not bad!) but still appears to be too small to serve as a consistent early down option. Rodney Dunham is one of the best recruits in the nation and should be able to give the Irish something, but I like to keep expectations modest for freshmen along the lines. Junior Cole Mullins is a bigger bodied option you could try out there.

I’m curious what the staff does with Christopher Burgess Jr. coming off his redshirt year. Conventional wisdom is the Top 100 recruit has gained so much size he has to move inside but after adding Francis Brewu and Tionne Gray while retaining Jason Onye and Elijah Hughes, there isn’t a clear need there. Would it make sense to spend this year cross-training Burgess, playing him as a big end on early run downs then shifting him to tackle next season when more snaps are available? (The Rylie Mills path.) With Thomas’ ability and linebackers moving up to rush on passing situations the main concern is avoiding getting bullied and Burgess would likely aid with that but perhaps he’s outgrown the spot and Mullins is the more likely candidate. Excited to find out and hopefully Dunham is so good out of the box it’s not a concern.

There are a couple things I’m certain about: Anthonie Knapp and Guerby Lambert are going to start somewhere (maybe the spots they started at last season, maybe flip-flopping inside-outside, who knows) and as long as he’s healthy Ashton Craig will be the starting center. After that? Well. Charles Jagusah is a no-doubt starter if he’s healthy, but there’s plenty of doubt about his health. Will Black and Matty Augustine are uber-talented rising sophomores who could plug in anywhere. Sullivan Absher is a veteran option who could play guard if you shift Lambert out, or perhaps time share with one of the young guys if you wanted to get creative.

Joe Rudolph has dealt with horrific injury luck the last two seasons but things were kept afloat via the legs of Riley Leonard and the Love-Price combo. As much as Carr is going to have to adjust to life without two elite backs, so will the offensive line, because unless we’re extremely fortunate I doubt you’re going to see as many clear tackles for loss turned into lengthy touchdowns. Carr’s experience and a full complement of tight ends should help in short yardage situations, but that’s a weak point that needs improvement.

Faison and Greathouse are locks to be in the receiver rotation and I’d be very surprised if Aneyas Williams wasn’t a key factor in the backfield. However, after those three it is on Carr, Denbrock, Ja’Juan Seider and Mike Brown to sort through the rest of the positions and figure out who’s doing the heavy lifting in the offense. My wishlist for when we gather after Blue-Gold is to have names to fill in for “Carr has developed a great rapport with [RECEIVER NOT NAMED FAISON OR GREATHOUSE]” and “[TIGHT END] is clearly the A1 option and heir to Raridon.” Bonus points if we also get high praise on a non-Williams running back or two. We don’t need clarity on any of this until August but that doesn’t mean we can’t want some updates.

Speaking of Bill Connelly, he started putting together his returning production rankings and the early leader is your Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If you’re curious how that is possible with Love and Price out the door, tailback rushing yards are only 3% of the formula for offense versus 40% for offensive line snaps, 35% for wide receiver and tight end receiving yards (Greathouse’s 2024 counts for this) and 22% for returning quarterback passing yardage. On defense, it’s 66% for returning snaps, 19% for returning tackles and 15% for returning tackles for loss.

Last year’s returning production leader was Clemson, which is ominous, but consider the rest of the top ten contained three playoff teams (Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Oklahoma), two 10-win teams (Vanderbilt and Kennesaw State), three nine-win teams (Arizona State, Boise State and Illinois) and…Rutgers (a feisty 5-7).

With the Big Dances looming, let’s close with some basketball. Notre Dame missed the men’s ACC Tournament, which is not good. The other two teams to do so — Boston College and Georgia Tech — moved on from their coaches, who had been in their roles for five and three years, respectively. There is no indication Micah Shrewsberry won’t be returning next season with, well, I would say a great deal of pressure but again it swings back to the eternal question of how much does Notre Dame care about this program.

Mostly repeating myself from last time, but: Huge portal session ahead for Shrewsberry and general manager Pat Garrity. If they retain Markus Burton, Jalen Haralson and Cole Certa while adding a quality big, it would be reasonable to get hyped. If those players depart and they strike out in acquisitions, it’ll feel like we’re just playing out the string for the next calendar year. I’m good with Shrewsberry getting another season considering the injury luck he’s dealt with but I would love for any positive momentum or sense of a clear direction for the program.

Things are considerably rosier on the women’s side, where since we last spoke they went on a run of nine wins in their last 11 games, including blowing out NC State twice, denying Louisville a share of the ACC regular season title on their home floor and taking Duke to the wire in the tournament semifinals. That stretch was great for team achievements (the Irish improved their bracket position considerably) and for individual glory, as Hannah Hidalgo’s virtuosa performances locked her in a second ACC Player of the Year and third ACC Defensive Player of the Year (both unanimous) as well as sundry first-team All-American honors. (She was one of three no-brainer selections in my humble opinion, along with UConn’s Sarah Strong and Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes.)

These last two seasons have been an interesting study in putting Hidalgo on a team loaded with WNBA talent and then on a team with a more inconsistent supporting cast. The result of the experiment was finding out that no matter the situation you drop her into she will thrive because her intensity, grit and incredible talent are undeniable. How does someone that small come down with so many rebounds and finish so well around the basket? Seeing her build chemistry with Vanessa de Jesus and Iyana Moore (this season looks different if she’s healthy for the start) has been a joy and it’s been great to see K.K. Bransford getting her legs underneath her again. Making it to a fifth straight Sweet Sixteen will be a tough climb but the Irish are capable.

Even if they fall short of the second weekend after their trip to Columbus or even go one-and-done against Fairfield, there’s been a positive vibe shift from where we sat following the disappointing conclusion to last season, the portal departures and a frustrating first few months of this one. Need a couple additions in the portal — a capable big and a veteran combo guard, ideally — but Niele Ivey has a monster recruiting class coming in* and Hidalgo has proven she belongs in the pantheons of both the sport’s current elite and all-time Irish greats. The highs have to be higher than Sweet Sixteens, but if these are the down years, that’s not too shabby.

* Fun fact: One of those incoming freshmen, Jenica Lewis, finished her high school career with more state titles (3) than losses (2). Pretty solid work.

That’s it for today. There will be a basketball podcast in your feed (Spotify) (Apple) (I use Pocket Casts and it’s there as well) on Wednesday morning and if you’re feeling any kind of Oscar hangover we got into the Best Picture nominees on Friday’s episode in addition to talking Love draft stock. Last month the great Jamie Uyeyama joined to hash out some of the above questions and discuss the delightful A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms so check that out if you haven’t already. We’ll probably do another edition before Blue-Gold on April 25 but not 100% certain on that. Until then, take care of yourselves and each other. Good luck to the ladies on Saturday and ideally beyond.

Saying goodbye with a photo from the ACC Tournament that makes me very happy.