Rakes Report #283: I think you know what's right this time

Good day, folks. Before we dive in fully I wanted to plug a few items at the top. A couple of podcasts (Spotify) (Apple) since we last spoke here, one going deep on the Fighting Irish basketball programs and the other going through every new head coaching hire at the FBS level. I didn’t realize until I sat down to write this that two of the Power 4 hires Jess and I both felt were among the worst on paper (Pat Fitzgerald at Sparty and Tavita Pritchard at Stanford) are the two new coaches Notre Dame will face this year. Funny how that works out.

A lot of the new hires will fail because that’s what happens when winning is hard, but going through the list a vast majority of them make sense. (And it’s possible Fitzgerald and/or Pritchard do well.) It’s a long episode but if you need a college football audio fix at some point this month it’s worth your time. If you’re looking for some offseason swag, the merchandise link is here and there’s a sale on through the end of the week.

Late Sunday night add: Congrats to Julian Love (an interception!) and Rylie Mills (first career sack!) on becoming Super Bowl champions. Really cool stuff. Let’s get to it.

Mike Mickens left for the NFL, which is very sad because he is one of the best coaches in the modern history of Notre Dame, taking a position that hadn’t been a strength1 and turning it into one of the best rooms in the country, if not the very best. As sad as it is for Mickens to depart, it’s also something we’ve been dreading/expecting because when you’re that young and that good either the right college team with a coordinator role or the professional ranks are inevitably going to come calling.

To replace Mickens, Marcus Freeman turned to Aaron Henry, who was serving as defensive coordinator for Illinois. After a disappointing year for their defense Illini fans weren’t sad to see Henry go but there’s no reason to believe he’s not great at the thing he’ll be tasked to do for the Irish: develop elite defensive backs. In Champaign, Henry worked to hone No. 5 overall pick and Super Bowl standout Devon Witherspoon, all-pro safety Kerby Joseph and a pair of Day Two draft picks (Quan Martin and Sydney Brown). Henry has a co-defensive coordinator title for Notre Dame but I suspect the playcalling will stay fully with Chris Ash. Henry played under Ash at Wisconsin and coached under him at Rutgers so it should be a smooth operation.

(I am curious how this plays out if Mickens is promoted to defensive coordinator after Al Golden’s departure and Ash isn’t hired. Is the defense better for the first two games because there’s no attempt to reinvent the wheel, or just as bad/worse? Does it not improve as quickly as it did after halftime of Purdue and the Irish end up on the wrong side of a shootout against Arkansas, NC State or Southern Cal? Does Mickens still get an NFL offer and leave so right now we’d be looking for a defensive coordinator plus lack the consistency we’ll have going into the 2026 season? Is that enough unknowable hypotheticals for one parenthetical?)

The Irish also lost defensive line-turned-linebacker coach Al Washington to the NFL. They went outside the Freeman/Ash tree to replace him, hiring Brian Jean-Mary2. Jean-Mary has coached at a number of major programs, including Michigan (his most recent stop), Texas, Tennessee, Louisville and Georgia Tech, where he developed mid-00s demon Phillip Wheeler (35 tackles for loss in his college career, seemingly half of those coming in his two games against Charlie Weis’ offense). Jean-Mary also spent three years at South Florida under Charlie Strong as his defensive coordinator and has a good overall track record of development.

I like the idea of adding the fresh voice of a respected veteran to a defensive staff where Ash, Henry and Charlie Partridge are used to working with each other. (Jean-Mary got the run game coordinator title, for whatever that is worth.) On the recruiting front, my assumption is Freeman won’t hire someone who isn’t willing to put in the work so not concerning myself there. A fun wrinkle per Football Scoop is that because Jean-Mary was let go from a multi-year deal in Ann Arbor as they attempt to retool from the Sherrone Moore Era, the Wolverines will be covering part of his salary. Thanks, friends.

We’ve said this a bunch over the years but this kind of coaching staff turnover is the sign of a healthy program. If assistants are taking coordinator roles, coordinators are taking head coaching roles or the NFL comes calling, you tip your hat to a job well done and turn to the list of potential options that should be continually refreshed. I’m not really concerned with all three primary defensive assistants turning over with Ash and Freeman at the top and a bunch of other staffers also returning.

Notre Dame-related coaching news that’s pretty fun: Former Irish running backs coach Lance Taylor is head coach at Western Michigan and coming off a MAC title. When his defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary (former Irish safeties coach) got hired to the same role with the Chargers (quite a leap, congrats to O’Leary), Taylor promoted former Irish linebacker Greer Martini to replace O’Leary. I think this marks the first time a player we named a tailgate cocktail after has earned the role of FBS coordinator but I’ll have to triple-check the archives to be sure.

I was debating whether to fire out a newsletter this week or wait a bit but then we got huge news on Friday with the release of new uniform numbers and I knew the time was now.

• The most important note is Tionne Gray chose No. 0, a perfect decision for someone listed at 6’5 and 333 pounds. Throw in Christopher Burgess, Jr. taking No. 6 and Francis Brewu taking No. 7 that’s three defensive linemen combining to weigh 900 pounds with single digits.

• Christian Gray is going back to No. 29. Feels like this (complimentary).

• Nolan James, Jr. switching to No. 2 and taking the power of Dexter Williams helps assuage the sadness of losing Love and Price a bit.

• It is very cool that Rodney Dunham — the five-star defensive end who’s the highest rated recruit in an elite freshman class — is taking No. 44, which was also worn at Notre Dame by a gentleman named Justin Tuck. Fellow blue-chip defensive end Ebenezer Ewetade is taking No. 14 -- a potentially potent mix.

• Devin Fitzgerald has No. 11, the same number his future Hall of Fame father wore in the NFL.

Malachi Fields had an awesome Senior Bowl week and it seems like the arrow is pointing toward him being a Day Two pick at the very worst, with a chance to slip into the bottom of the draft’s opening night. With Jeremiyah Love going in the top ten of a lot of projections and Jadarian Price seemingly slated to be selected within the first three rounds as well it’ll be a busy start of the draft for Mike Denbrock’s charges.

With Fields gaining so much early pre-draft hype and flashing the potential to be the program’s first wide receiver to go in the first round since Will Fuller in 2016 it’s natural to ask if he was underused in 2025 after putting up solid but not eye-popping stats (36 catches for 630 yards and five touchdowns). The Notre Dame offense finished third in F+ so overall I would say that’s unfair with one exception, which was him only getting three targets against Miami (which were converted into three catches and 48 yards). Even there, though, Fields lost a fumble on the second drive of the game and it’s tough to set up deep shots when the opponent’s defensive line is terrorizing a quarterback in his first career start.

Fields had 11 targets against Texas A&M and had season highs in catches (7), yardage (99) and touchdowns (2) against Pittsburgh. Only three targets and a single catch against Southern Cal but you might remember that game occurred in inclement weather and the Irish rushed for 306 yards in a 10-point victory so no complaints there.

According to the extremely unscientific but still interesting compilation over at the mock draft database, Eli Raridon, Aamil Wagner and Jalen Stroman are projected to be Day Three picks with Billy Schrauth just outside that range. Long way until April and it only takes one team to fall in love for a prospect to go higher than expected, especially if Schrauth can prove his health is on the mend.

Couple quick schedule things: Blue-Gold Game is on April 25. So many early enrollees, returning guys in elevated roles and the start of the QB2 derby combined with the latest possible date to potentially wring some decent weather out of northern Indiana might result in a pretty nice time.

Additionally, if you were planning on attending the Sparty game, I would brace for that being a late kickoff (along with Miami on Nov. 7) because our friend Michael Bryan over at the Spreadsheets & Tailgates newsletter flagged the Big Ten competition for that week’s primetime slot:

Top options for NBC to handpick from the mighty B1G are either USC at Rutgers, Purdue at UCLA, Virginia Tech at Maryland, or Colorado at Northwestern. Very cool to have a bloated 18-team league where some weeks there are zero compelling games.

Yikes yikes yikes. If you assume the Hurricanes are a lock then your non-Sparty options for a second night game are Rice on Sept. 12 (no), Stanford on Oct. 10 (perhaps, it’s the only home game in October), Boston College on Nov. 14 (seems borderline impossible the week right after Miami for a team that went 2-10 last year) and SMU on Nov. 21 (this would be 11 days later than the 2018 Florida State primetime kickoff so I wouldn’t think so but the Mustangs are on a lot of the way-too-early Top 25 projections; quality of opponent versus quality of weather debate).

Let’s close out talking basketball. On the men’s side, things are quite bleak. They have won just two of their last dozen games, the latest loss coming at home to a sub-.500 Florida State team that was barely ranked in the Top 100 of KenPom at tip. Some allowance needs to be made for losing an all-conference level player like Markus Burton to injury but for being in year three of Micah Shrewsberry’s tenure you would hope there would be more to point to as far as an identity and/or positive strides.

In his first season, Shrewsberry had a completely new roster and leaned on defense (39th in KenPom, versus 234th in offense) to establish a baseline competency. In his second season, the defense slipped all the way to 121st and the offensive improvement was sizable but nowhere near good enough (95th) to make up for allowing far more points. As we sit here in year three, Notre Dame is balanced but not particularly good at anything (mid-90s in offense, mid-80s in defense).

Shrewsberry signed a seven-year deal so despite the turn this has taken I would still be a little surprised if he’s relieved of his duties before next season, regardless of how dire things get between now and Selection Sunday (provided he does not attempt to fight any more officials). This will be the first portal season with Pat Garrity as general manager and if Notre Dame can retain the top players on this roster there’s legitimate reason to think the leap could come in his fourth season. If guys like Burton, Jalen Haralson, Cole Certa or Brady Koehler bounce, it will stay just as ugly.

My baseline view on coaches is if things are dicey, you’re 50/50 on whether to retain for another season and you don’t have a slam-dunk replacement in mind then give the coach the additional season. However, 1) This feels worse than 50/50 after the recent stretch, as the Irish might not even qualify for the ACC Tournament 2) Pete Bevacqua and Garrity did not hire Shrewsberry which means his position could be more precarious. With the lack of interest/investment in hoops in South Bend I suspect he’ll get another year but I don’t think anyone would weep or call it unfair if it’s three and out for him. I am sad this team is so bad the nation won’t have a chance to fall in love with Carson Towt come March, as the Northern Arizona transfer has been excellent providing rebounding, energy, good vibes and comically bad free throw shooting. For anyone who thought the program’s nadir was when Mike Brey was struggling to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, at least you don’t have to worry about that anymore.

On the women’s side, things felt like they were starting to spiral but gutsy wins against Stanford and Virginia Tech have stabilized things a bit in addition to getting K.K. Bransford back from the injury list. Hannah Hidalgo has been transcendent save for the loss of her three-point accuracy but if one of a half dozen things goes wrong the roster construction is such it looks real rough3. This doesn’t feel like a team with the capability to go on a deep run but anything can happen once you get to single elimination basketball against a terror like Hidalgo and some veteran guards around her. (Uniform note: I liked The Bend uniforms when they were announced but they’ve only grown on me since then.)

For as relatively disappointing as the last calendar year of the Notre Dame women’s team has been, I think there’s reason to be optimistic. The primary issue this season has been a lack of bodies and that’s being addressed with a recruiting class 247 has rated as the second best in the country that’s five players deep (including a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans and another two Top 25 prospects). You’ll also have five-star Leah Macy, the lone recruit in the previous class who redshirted this year rehabbing a leg injury. This will also be Garrity’s first portal for the women as well, and ideally the grace we’ve seen given to football admissions will extend to other programs with title aspirations.

Despite a few ugly results this season and the downer end last March, I don’t think Niele Ivey is anywhere near a hot seat at this moment. Over the previous four seasons she has four Sweet Sixteens, two ACC regular season titles, an ACC Tournament title and reached the top spot of the AP poll (albeit briefly). It’s also important to note that she was the starting point guard for one of the program’s national titles, an associate head coach for the other and was the chosen replacement by the legend who has a statue outside the arena and still is a presence on campus. If this season has a really disappointing ending, maybe we can start talking about some pressure on next year, but how much the concept of a hot seat in women’s basketball even exists is an interesting conversation into which I recently stumbled.

I talked about this a little with The Athletic’s Sabreena Merchant on last month’s pod but the basic pitch is that for there to be a hot seat, there has to be a threat of losing your job. However, if schools aren’t willing to pay buyouts to get rid of a coach nor to get a new hire out of their previous deal, that lowers the temperature. I was discussing this further with Paul Coletti of The Irish Alert newsletter and he pointed out there is one example of this in women’s college basketball: Tennessee has gone through three coaches since the late great Pat Summit retired in 2012, not an incredible burn rate but still notable. For the hot seat to activate, you need a school that’s had consistent high level success by a previous coach.

I think there are three coaches where you could apply this rubric: Stanford’s Kate Paye (replacing Tara VanDerveer, who won three national titles), Baylor’s Nicki Collen (hired after Kim Mulkey also won three national titles) and…Ivey. (Note: Both Paye and Ivey are alumnae and served lengthy stints as assistants under the legends they replaced.) If women’s basketball continues to grow and more established forces move on from their current roles (such as in Storrs or Columbia, for example) maybe we see more terminations but as of yet you can’t apply a quick trigger football mentality to this sport.

One more quick basketball thing before we go: If you missed Marina Mabrey’s performance when Unrivaled took their show on the road to Philadelphia last month, it was euphoric as she put up 27 points in five minutes in front of a packed house. (Favorite part: How excited the play-by-play announcer is when she gets to 16 in the first quarter, having no idea how many more are yet to come.) Unrivaled will hold a one-on-one tournament this week and Mabrey’s first round opponent is none other than Sonia Citron, who hit a game-winner Friday night against Paige Bueckers and Cam Brink. The league’s ratings have been down in its sophomore year but it’s still fun to have another venue to watch Irish excellence, and the success of their visit to Philadelphia bodes well for its future.

That’s it from me -- thanks very much for reading. If you’re interested in today’s musical accompaniment artist, my friend Mike Laskey wrote about them last fall for Notre Dame Magazine. Until next time, take care of yourselves and each other.