Crypto Looks Cheap, Macro Still Looks Ugly

Welcome 👋🏽

Today’s update is a little different.

Instead of a full written newsletter, I’ve recorded a video State of the Market update walking through where I think we are across crypto, macro and the AI trade.

I hope you enjoy! 👇🏽

Crypto, specifically BTC, ETH and SOL, is trading at levels that I think offer attractive risk-to-reward (R/R).

Like February 2026, we are at or near the lows, and several bottoming signals are flashing:

• BTC monthly RSI is near prior bear market low levels

• BTC is trading close to its 200 week moving average

• Crypto sentiment remains clustered around “extreme fear” and at major lows

• BTC, ETH and SOL are all showing weekly bullish divergences

None of this guarantees the low is in. It simply tells me that, if the crypto thesis is still valid, this is the type of zone where the risk-to-reward starts to skew favourably.

For the record, this is the thesis:

At the same time, the RORO tool remains risk-off. That is mainly due to rising inflation pressure, a stronger US dollar, the global hiking cycle across the developed world, and the broader “death knell” setup of higher oil, higher yields and a stronger USD.

That means that the macro backdrop is not supportive enough for a risk-on rally just yet. My base case is that TradFi trades flat to down, with a bias towards lower prices in the short to medium term.

Crypto is slightly different because I think the market is already pricing in a lot of bad news. You can see this in assets like MSTR and STRC, where the market is effectively pricing in one of the worst-case narratives around Strategy and its potentially unplanned selling of BTC to service future debt obligations - I think this risk is overstated, as highlighted in the Community Chat.

Could BTC trade another 10-20% lower? Of course. That is always possible.

But again, if the thesis is valid, this is attractive R/R.

The other thing worth noting is the four-year cycle narrative. I do not believe in the four-year cycle as a hard rule, but I do think it is reflexive. If enough people believe BTC should bottom in Q4 2026, then many will try to front-run that by buying earlier. So the bearish cycle narrative that has been hanging over crypto is also getting closer to exhaustion, which could become a tailwind rather than a headwind.

The AI trade remains my key focus for reallocation. I believe AI is one of the strongest multi-year opportunities, but I am waiting for a better entry as macro pressure and parabolic charts create the pullback I have been expecting.

The opportunity I am most focused on is not broad AI exposure, but rather specific parts of the AI stack where I think the next major 5-10x opportunities may emerge, as shared here 👇🏽

Crypto looks like a high RR accumulation zone, but macro is not yet supportive enough for a rally in risk-on assets in crypto, AI or tech broadly.

My next major allocation/reallocation focus remains the AI trade once the setup improves.

Here is a PDF of the slides 👇🏽

That’s all for now.

Catch you next week ✌🏽

Filip Brnadic

DISCLAIMER:

PROJECT 10X (Filip Brnadic) does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Nor is PROJECT 10X registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer.

The material provided is FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PROJECT 10X is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your investments. Investing involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a COMPLETE LOSS OF FUNDS.

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.