Daily Briefing: The United States Cites “Security Threat” As Cause For One-Week Suspension Of USDA Inspections In Mexican State Of Michoacán

On Tuesday, 11 August, the Mexican government announced the arrest of 12 persons accused of operating an extortion ring targeting the avocado industry in the southwestern state of Michoacán. The detainees are alleged participants in a long-standing system wherein cartel operatives demand tribute payments in exchange for protection and allowance to operate in the region. In addition to these arrests, the Sheinbaum government has taken additional measures to increase security presence in the state, deploying an additional 1,500 troops to the region and working with the Trump Administration on a security plan.

This crackdown follows the United States government’s 5 August decision to suspend operations in Michoacán due to an unspecified “threat against American interests.” The decision effectively halts avocado processing in the state, as produce destined for the United States is required to undergo inspections by local United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) officers prior to export. The vast majority of avocados sold in the United States are grown in Michoacán and producers in the state, one of only two states authorised to grow avocados for export to the US, are highly dependent on export economies. Consequently, any pause in industry operations in the state has the potential to cause shortages in the US and destabilise the local economy.

This most recent incident is not the first time the US has paused operations in Michoacán in response to security concerns. Avocado imports were suspended from 12 to 18 February 2022, in response to a threatening message left on the phone of an inspector operating in Uruapan, Michoacán. In June 2024, avocado exports were again suspended following the assault and detainment of two USDA employees in the state. Unlike these previous episodes, the August 2026 suspension does not follow a specific incident, nor does the security alert provide any details surrounding the nature of the cited threat. Statements from Mexican officials confirm that the suspension was not imposed in response to a particular event. In a 11 August statement, Mexican Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch maintained that no specific threats against US personnel have been reported.

In Michoacán, organised crime is deeply interconnected with the avocado industry. Reporting has concluded that two cartels founded in the 1990s, Los Cunis and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, relied on the extortion of avocado producers to establish operations in the region, most often by threatening kidnappings if payments were not made. The practice continues today, with many cartels operating in Michoacán engaging in this type of coercive behaviour. Over the past three decades, as international consumption of avocados has grown, organised crime groups have leveraged increasing demand pressures to exert greater influence over the industry. A 2024 report from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime details the tacit exchange between producers and cartels, wherein cartel operatives forcibly displace populations and engage in illegal logging to clear lands to be sold for avocado production. Avocado producers, in turn, purchase these lands to meet the growing global demand for avocados. This collusion, facilitated by corruption in local government, has allowed the local avocado industry to expand to meet market pressures all while bolstering the strength of organised crime groups.

With American demand growing year over year and a local industry dependent on export markets, any interruption to the avocado trade has potentially disastrous economic effects. Mexico exports an estimated $3.7 billion (about £2.7 billion) worth of avocados to the United States each year, around 90% of which are grown in Michoacán. This makes avocado prices in the US hypersensitive to changes in the state’s avocado industry. A 2024 analysis of the US avocado market by researchers at the University of Florida concluded that recent increases in avocado prices are due, in part, to the reductions in supply resulting from pauses in USDA inspections. In Michoacán, where hundreds of thousands of residents’ livelihoods depend on the avocado industry, trade disruptions can cause widespread economic insecurity. The California Avocado Commission, the association of avocado growers in the US state of California, has long advocated for additional restrictions on the import of avocados from Michoacán. In a statement released days after the announced pause, the association’s president, Ken Melban, applauded the decision and reiterated his organisation’s call for a tariff-rate quota on Mexican avocados to incentivise the purchase of US-grown avocados.

On Thursday, 13 August, US Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that the US government would resume operations, including USDA inspections, in Michoacán. However, the statement did not provide any additional details on the security threat that triggered the eight-day pause. This, coupled with the Trump Administration’s demonstrated willingness to exert significant pressure on negotiating partners, often using non-traditional, if not illegal, means, calls into question whether the US Government used the suspension of operations as an additional lever in its ongoing negotiations with the Sheinbaum Administration over trade and security policy.

Moreover, it is unclear whether the policy changes resulting from the pause will prove effective in limiting the influence of organised crime groups over the avocado and other licit industries in Mexico. Though this pause, like those previous, was met with concessions on additional security measures by the Mexican government, appears to have had little to no long-term effect on the issues of extortion and entanglement between cartels and the companies that make up the Michoacán avocado industry.

Best wishes,  

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