Polis Analysis · Aug 19, 2026
Climate and Instability Intelligence Briefing: El Niño and Food Security – How Climate Shocks Could Deepen Hunger Across Vulnerable Regions
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El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, has re-emerged after a multi-year La Niña and is strengthening across the tropical Pacific. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a roughly 60% chance that the event potentially becomes "very strong," and one of the strongest on record.
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