A Few Things which Caught My Attention
A few concepts and questions investors should ponder!
Paulsen Perspectives
A 40-year retired Wall Street Economist and Chief Investment Strategist offers periodic perspectives on the economy and the financial markets. Please sign up for a free 1-month trial subscription.
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Latest posts
August Excess Return Video Interview
Monthly Conversation with the gang from Excess Return Podcast
Earnings – “To Infinity and Beyond!”
Will the forces pushing EPS higher continue to strengthen or are pressures emerging which could dampen trends and disappoint expectations?
A Sentiment Shift?
Economic momentum is slowing. Expect inflation worries to be replaced by recession concerns and for stock prices & bond yields to both decline.
Productivity Booms are Rare
Periods of “Real Productivity Booms” --sustainable simultaneous above average gains in real GDP, employment and productivity --are rare during the post war era occurring only in the 1960s and 1990s.
Observations
A New Era Bear without an S&P correction, low New vs. Old Era correlation, nobody worries about a recession anymore, Hawkish Fedspreak, Gold prices to fall more, R1000 Growth underperforming & more.
Excess Return Month-End Video
A 10-minute interview with Excess Returns on the stock market.
Capital Spending & the Stock Market?
During 2026, oil prices have surged, the U.S. dollar has increased, and bond yields have risen – all with a lag, representing negative forces for capital spending.
Policy Pain!
Historically, the performance of both the economy and the financial markets have — "with a lag" — been significantly impacted by rising oil prices and by restrictive economic policies.
Back to the Future for Bonds?
Real GDP growth, inflation, and bond yields surged higher during 2021-22. Real growth & inflation have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels, but bond yields haven't!