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PauloMacro’s Substack · Jul 8, 2026

Ramblings & Ruminations: Mid-Year 2026 Overview

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PauloMacro · PauloMacro’s Substack

Markets are highly unstable and have achieved a state of criticality. This will be a longer note today summarizing my thoughts across broader macro (jobs & inflation), USD, equity positioning, metals (specifically platinum), and a trade I put on yesterday which makes me want to throw up, so I guess it must be decent (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!). I will address oil at the very end due to feedback from readers that my focus has become too oil-centric over the past few months. Of course, this should be expected by the readership, as I am living through historic times and seeing so many things that have never happened before in the energy market. When you step back and realize the degree to which both physical and financial positioning have swung around since the start of the year, I probably should not apologize for having focused on what drew my attention (and my money), but there is more to the world than oil, so it’s time for a bit of a review and rambling thoughts first.

  • Jobs

  • Inflation

  • The US Dollar, Risk, and Positioning

  • New Trade

  • Platinum

  • Oil Positioning & Sentiment

Read the original on paulomacro.substack.com

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