Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear
"Mum-ification," the Yen/Bonds/Oil Confluence, a Special Situation, and More -- 10 Aug 2026
PauloMacro’s Substack
My thoughts on global macro, micro, and everything in between
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Latest episodes
The Event Horizon Meets 'Narrowing In'
When Do Relationships Extend So Far That They Are Broken?
Pick Your Fighter: Precious Metals vs. Copper
When Positioning & Sentiment Becomes 90% of the Game
BoJ gets FX vol off the sideline and into the game, + Oil, Warsh, and Important Credit Comment
30 July 2026
The Second Mouse Gets the Cheese
Oil Positioning Suggests Investors Running Scared of Trump
An Emerging Credit Risk with Contagion Potential Revisited
What Happens When a Single Event Touches Off "Who's Next"?
Doing Little as Dispersion Infects Everything Across Macro
20 July 2026
Ramblings & Ruminations: Mid-Year 2026 Overview
Jobs, Inflation, USD + Risk + Positioning, a New Trade, Platinum, and (of course) Oil
Oil & The China Syndrome
Checkmate in Chinese Revisited
Quick Comments on Options Positioning, Equity Funding, and Oil
Mon 29 June 2026