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SPY closed near 776 after a third straight weekly gain, but Friday’s failed retest of record highs signals early hesitation near 780
Daily trend stays bullish, price above the 5, 50 and 200 day MAs. 4 hour MACD histogram is compressing near resistance, a stall in momentum rather than a breakdown so far. 772 to 775 is the key support zone to defend; a break below 770 opens the door toward 760
This week: FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Walmart earnings (Thursday), flash PMIs (Friday) and rising oil prices on Iran and Lebanon tensions are this week’s main catalysts.
SPY closed out last week near 776, capping a third straight weekly gain but stumbling into Friday after failing to retest Thursday’s record close. The daily trend remains constructive: price is holding above the 5, 50 and 200 day moving averages (roughly 777, 773 and 754 respectively), RSI sits in the mid 60s, and MACD is still positive, all of which points to an intact uptrend rather than a reversal. That said, the RSI creeping toward overbought territory and Friday’s rejection near 779 suggest the tape is getting stretched, and the next leg likely depends on whether buyers can clear the 780 area with conviction or whether the market needs to digest gains first.
On the 4 hour chart, the picture is more cautious. Momentum has flattened after the failed push to new highs, with the MACD histogram compressing rather than expanding, a sign that upside thrust is fading near resistance even though no clean breakdown has occurred yet. The key zone to watch is 772 to 775, the confluence of the 50 day moving average and last week’s consolidation shelf. A clean hold there keeps this a shallow, healthy pullback within the broader uptrend, while a slide beneath 770 would open the door toward 760, the next meaningful support shelf from early August. Above the tape, 780 remains the line in the sand for a fresh breakout attempt.
This week’s macro calendar adds real texture to that setup. Wednesday afternoon brings the minutes from July’s FOMC meeting, a split decision that has grown more consequential after a weak July jobs report and soft inflation data initially cooled hike odds, only for expectations to swing back toward a possible year end hike as markets parse Chair Warsh’s cautious tone. Tuesday delivers a wave of housing and industrial data (building permits, housing starts, industrial production), Thursday brings jobless claims and the Philly Fed index, and Friday closes the week with flash PMIs. On the earnings side, Home Depot already reported Monday and Walmart follows Thursday, rounding out the read on the health of the consumer. Layered on top of all that is rising geopolitical noise: oil has climbed toward the mid 80s on fading hopes for an extended Iran deal and renewed fighting in Lebanon, pushing yields higher and giving the VIX a modest bid. None of this breaks the uptrend on its own, but it raises the odds of a choppier, headline driven week than the steady grind higher SPY has enjoyed lately.
Records were tested but not broken last week, and this week's mix of Fed minutes, retail earnings and oil headlines out of the Middle East should keep predictors on their toes. Keep an eye on how SPY behaves around the 780 resistance and 772 support zone, since Wednesday's FOMC minutes could be the tiebreaker that decides which way this range finally breaks.
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