May tested every thesis at once and held. The stagflation anxiety of the first fortnight gave way into month-end as a strong NVIDIA print, a sharp oil reversal, and a softer-than-feared core inflation read flipped the tape risk-on. The S&P held its post-April highs, technology led again on the AI capital expenditure reaffirmation, and China stayed the regional standout on conflict insulation and domestic stimulus. WTI swung hard, towards $110 on fresh Hormuz strikes then back to $91 on an unsigned de-escalation. Core PCE ran at 3.8% headline, the highest since May 2023, with the core measure up just 0.2% on the month, neither disinflation nor a broken stagflation case.
The portfolio returned -1.05% for May, bringing year-to-date performance to 2.13%. China and US carried the book while the tactical themes gave it back and more. A month where the core held and the edges bled.
The first week of June has kept the same shape. Broadcom confirmed the AI build-out is still accelerating, a record quarter and a guide that doubles again, and the stock sold off anyway. When a blowout gets sold, expectations are already priced for perfection. The tape turned choppy and defensive into the week’s jobs report while oil stayed firm on the Gulf.
China (CNXT): +9.5%. The month’s best performer. The thesis that Chinese equities benefit from conflict insulation and supportive domestic policy held up cleanly. Position maintained into June.
US (VOO): +5.3%. Broad US did its job. For June I have closed the broad exposure and rotated into wide-moat US (MOAT), trading breadth for quality as valuations stretch into the melt-up and the easy beta gets harder to justify.
Ethereum (ETHA): -11.0%. The largest detractor. Crypto sentiment rolled over as rate-cut hopes faded and risk appetite narrowed. Closed for June.
Nuclear (NLR): -8.7%. A painful month, but the structural case, power demand from AI and electrification against a constrained supply of generation, is intact. The pullback does not break the thesis. Maintained into June.
Corn (CORN): -4.1%. The supply thesis did not pay. Price broke structure, and sentiment failed to firm even as the Iran conflict escalated. When a live geopolitical shock cannot bid the grain, the trade is not being rewarded. Closed for June.
Short Duration Bonds (DFSD): +0.3%. The stable core that lets the rest of the book take risk without strain. Increased to a 50% overweight for June, raising the ballast while the satellites are trimmed.
Closed this month:
Cosmetics (Apr), Mao Geping (1318.HK): -15.8%, closed on stop discipline. The founder-led brand premium ran into insider selling and a soft China consumer, and once price closed the week below the stop the position came off rather than being averaged down.
The open book, by theme, with the latest on each:
Health Tech (Jul): +80.8%. Still the strongest runner. The regulatory backdrop for tech-enabled distribution stays favourable and the disruptor keeps taking share, holding most of an $25.58 high from a $13.56 entry.
Agentic AI (Sep): +0.3%. Round-tripped from a +77.0% high. The application-software layer derated alongside a high-profile peer, leaving the position roughly flat on entry. On watch rather than conviction.
Cybersecurity Leader (Dec): +76.2%. Running on platform consolidation. This week’s sector earnings reaffirmed that enterprise security budgets are still expanding, which keeps the unified-platform thesis intact. Sitting just below a $150.07 high.
Humanoid Robotics (Jan): -15.5%. A normal pullback as China consumption data lags the recovery narrative. Commercialisation timelines for humanoids remain the swing factor, and the position stays within its budget.
Tea Beverages (Feb): -22.1%. Same China consumer backdrop. Store expansion continues while same-store trends are the watch item. Structural thesis intact and bounded by stops.
Brokerage (May): +5.0%. The newest pick. The catalyst the thesis was built on landed, re-rating the stock to a +20.2% high before it settled back above entry on the broad equity pullback.
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Disclaimer
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or risk tolerances of any of the recipients. The information or opinions provided are personal views and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein.
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