Republicans Are Building Their Own Reckoning

In November of 2024, just one week after the presidential election, I published one of my first Substack essays. It was titled “Courage Won’t Save America, but Stupidity Might.”

Looking back, it is clear the piece reflected an earlier stage of my writing. It lacked the refinement and discipline I aim for now. But its central argument still holds: Republicans were allowing rigid ideology to override political strategy, even when it came at the expense of their own power.

I used the Senate leadership election as my example. Republicans chose South Dakota Senator John Thune over Texas Senator John Cornyn for Majority Leader. At the time, I wrote:

Instead of choosing the candidate who feared losing his primary, who was already at odds with his party, and who was close to losing his political power, they chose the man who would not face voters again until 2028.

By electing a leader they have no leverage over, MAGA Republicans cannot credibly claim they control the U.S. Senate. They can only hope John Thune falls in line.

Cornyn was passed over for one simple reason. He was seen as too bipartisan. His willingness to work with Democrats under President Biden made him insufficiently MAGA for leadership.

Now, Cornyn may lose his primary entirely, potentially to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, one of the most extreme Republican officials in the country. That is where Republican strategy turns inward and devours itself.

Polls consistently show that Paxton is the Republican most likely to lose to a Democrat in a general election. With Democratic contenders such as Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico, who has already raised more than $13 million, Republicans would be forced into an expensive and divisive race, one with consequences far beyond a single Senate seat.

The environment Republicans are creating is now bleeding into down ballot races. Their extremism has left their incumbents stranded on ground that cannot hold, even those who once seemed politically secure.

Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz won her South Texas district by 14 points last year, yet she is now campaigning as if she represents a razor-thin swing district. She recently voted with Democrats to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies and has publicly criticized Trump administration immigration policies, saying:

“They elected me to represent them in Washington, D.C., and to be their voice, even when it pushes against the Trump administration.”

A stark departure from her former behavior.

Republicans govern, if it can be called that, with a five seat margin in the House and an even thinner margin for error. Their control is so fragile that Congressman Steve Womack was forced back to Washington for votes just days after his wife’s death. Midterm losses are widely expected. The only real question is how many Senate seats will fall with them, and the Trump administration’s conduct is accelerating that risk. John Thune, elevated as one of MAGA’s leaders, now serves as the messenger of that reality, tasked with pressing vulnerable senators to indulge Trump’s latest tantrum rather than persuading voters for their own political survival.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Maine. The administration has sent ICE agents into the state just as Senator Susan Collins faces a well-funded Democratic challenger, whether that is Governor Janet Mills or controversial progressive candidate Graham Platner. Collins, long insulated from national backlash, now finds herself politically exposed.

Texas presents another vulnerability. The Trump administration’s conduct has alienated two crucial blocs there, independents and Latino voters. Last year’s redistricting strategy relied heavily on Trump’s margins with Latino voters, a gamble that now threatens to backfire in key House races across South Texas.

At the same time, immigration enforcement has emerged as the fault line along which independent support is cracking. A recent New York Times Siena poll shows that fewer than 33% of Americans believe the country is better off than when Trump took office. 51% say his policies have made life less affordable. Only 34% of Independents approve of his performance, and more than twice as many say the country is worse off than better.

Most striking is immigration. While Republicans retain a narrow edge on border security at +3%, they are 17% underwater on immigration enforcement overall. What was once Trump’s strongest issue has become one of his greatest liabilities.

Public outrage over ICE conduct, including shootings, detentions of children, and serious injuries, has split immigration into two distinct questions. Voters may trust Republicans to manage the border, but they do not trust them to police communities or enforce immigration laws humanely.

A new YouGov poll finds that 63% of independents disapprove of ICE’s conduct, and 70% of Hispanic voters say the agency is too forceful.

Put simply, the issues that carried Trump into office, the cost of living and immigration, are now the very areas where voters trust him least, and where the coalition that once powered his victories is beginning to fracture.

Trump himself will not be on the ballot in 2026, but his administration will be. Recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia already offer a preview, with Democrats outperforming expectations by double digits in races Republicans believed would be competitive. Midterm electorates tend to favor highly engaged voters, a group which now highly favors Democrats, and outrage is a powerful motivator. Voters also understand that Republicans currently control all three branches of government, making the 2026 election a referendum on that power.

Some will argue that even a Republican defeat would not remove Trump from office. That is true. But Trump will not govern forever. And the likely Republican successor, J.D. Vance, polls even worse with independents while remaining closely tied to an administration that continues to generate chaos.

It is because of that predictable chaos that the administration’s panic over shifting electoral winds has become unmistakable. After federal immigration agents shot and killed 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, the Department of Homeland Security waited two hours before issuing a statement, and when it did, its tone was defensive rather than reassuring. Pretti’s death has sparked protests and widespread criticism, with local officials and Pretti’s family disputing the federal account and demanding transparency.

President Trump, known for his constant online presence and rapid reactions, did not address the incident until four hours later. The administration, which has become synonymous with high-volume social media posting, was instead silent as the truth unfolded on video: A U.S. citizen who worked as a healthcare provider at a Veterans Affairs hospital was killed by ICE while apparently trying to help others who were being attacked.

They know that this is not a moment they can easily spin. They know that visuals and eyewitness accounts will spread across airwaves and algorithms, and they understand that the political consequences could be profound.

Even Republican influencers appear divided, as the task of promoting narratives justifying ICE’s actions grows more challenging amid increasingly unfavorable coverage.

Tim Pool, a figure previously linked in reporting to a Russian funded media operation, known for having a more libertarian audience posted. “I don’t see Trump winning this one.”

Pro-life influencer Allie Beth Stuckey also weighed in, acknowledging how difficult it will be for Republicans to regain control of the narrative. She wrote that “Dems are winning the media war in Minneapolis” and called for more stories and images highlighting what she described as the professionalism and compassion of immigration officers and border patrol agents, along with greater attention to victims of violence she attributes to undocumented individuals.

Her response reflects a deeper anxiety within conservative media. It suggests an awareness that public trust in ICE has eroded and that raw footage of enforcement actions has become politically damaging. In effect, she is arguing that the agency must be redefined in the public imagination, and that emotionally charged counter-images are needed to blunt the impact of videos showing civilians harmed or detained. It is an appeal to narrative over evidence, aimed at restoring moral legitimacy to an enforcement regime that many voters increasingly view as abusive.

They know they are losing ground.

What is unfolding now is not confidence but collapse, not strategy but panic, not strength but self-inflicted ruin. Their unraveling is not imposed by opponents or circumstance. It is the result of their own decisions.

A significant midterm loss now seems inevitable. The only remaining question is the scale of it. And with every turn deeper into panic and excess, Republicans further weaken a coalition built around one man and destined to fracture without him.

Power rarely collapses from attack. More often, it collapses from within.

I would like to close this post with a moment of humanity and remembrance. On January 24, 2026, 37-year-old Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse at the Minneapolis Veterans Affairs hospital known for his compassionate care of veterans, was fatally shot by ICE agents in Minneapolis. Pretti was remembered by colleagues, friends, and family as a kind and dedicated caregiver who devoted his life to helping others.

Below is a video of Alex Pretti reading some final words for a veteran he cared for. The video, shared by the veteran’s son, offers a glimpse of the conviction and compassion that defined his life and service.

Video courtesy of the veteran’s son, posted on X by Derek Guy