Why the 2028 primary overhaul is bigger than you think

Let’s talk about the news this week.

It’s a day that ends in y, so Trump threatened to bomb another ally.

This time Oman, but who’s keeping track? Because hey, if you’re going to bomb someone, you have to first have munitions; and like Trump’s cardiologist told him about making it to 90, the numbers are really working against him on this one.

But that’s the first thing I’m watching this week, because no matter how hard we try, like low speed pileup on an icy interstate, we just can’t look away.

But if we do, it should be just to occasionally glance at the polls. Because it’s not Trump’s basement-dwelling approval rating I’m watching; it’s what his approval rating is doing to key Senate races, where the latest poll out of Alaska has Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan by an astonishing 6 points.

This is a state that went for Trump by 13 points.

Meanwhile over in Georgia, Jon Ossoff is up by 7 points on Mike the “scandal piñata” Collins.

Sherrod Brown is up by 8 points in Ohio, and apparently and old obese corrupt politician accusing 37-year-old James Talarico of having low-t isn’t working, because Talarico is leading Paxton in 4 of the last 5 polls to come out of Texas.

Back in D.C., the Supreme Court just rejected Trump’s final appeal to avoid paying $5 million to E Jean Carroll … which, hasn’t this already happened like six times?

Jesus Christ, Donald, just pay the woman and then treat her name like you’d treat a piece of broccoli. Keep it out of your mouth.

The court could also potentially decide whether or not to allow Trump to finish the ballroom construction, which was halted by a federal judge, who was then backed up by a federal appeals court.

And if the Supreme Court is struggling as to whether they should defend the house taxpayers own—or protect Trump—I’d encourage them to remember this is the same administration that argued in June that if they moved fast enough, they could bulldoze the Statue of Liberty without consequence.

Does the Supreme Court have one more good decision in them? As if I were walking past Trump, I’ll hold my breath just in case.

Next we have primaries this week in Alaska and Florida, and what I’m watching is not who wins—because each race is mostly decided—but instead, I’m watching the total vote count for Mary Peltola in Alaska.

Because as I mentioned earlier, she’s polling ahead of Sullivan for the general election. But since Alaska votes with an open ballot, today we get to see what happens when Peltola and Dan Sullivan are on the ballot together. If Peltola can take the top spot on the ballot—and also get more total votes than the Republicans, combined—it’ll provide her with a big shot of political and fundraising momentum ahead of November.

Lastly, we have to talk about 2028.

Because the Democratic Party just voted to move South Carolina to the first contest on the calendar, while moving Iowa and New Hampshire way back in the process (which I have to admit, is going to feel a little weird).

Now, the lazy headline writers are saying this benefits the “moderate” wing of the Democratic Party, or even worse, saying this benefits Black and Hispanic voters at the expense of working-class white voters.

But these are fucking awful takes.

Democrats in South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and the rest of the broader South want almost all of the same kinds of outcomes as what the media would call the “progressive wing” of the party.

It’s not a matter of the destination; it’s a matter of the strategy we use to get there. And the strategy of Southern Democrats is one born of pragmatism, out of necessity and survival.

Because when your community is suffering right now, today, you don’t have the time to study the intricacies of social democracy in Denmark. You fight for the progress that is in front of you, and you then defend it aggressively, because you know how hard you had to fight to get it.

As Nina Smith, a former Buttigieg advisor said, “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for” on policy, but also realists about what is possible. “Living through Jim Crow and other oppressive structures will force you to be take that approach.”

So I reject the characterization that this is a battle between moderates and progressives. What I see is a massive opportunity.

Because this new calendar gives Democrats a chance to curate an amazing candidate, built by the entire Democratic coalition.

To wit; the 6 states that choose before Super Tuesday are:

South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia.

When you look at these wildly diverse states, what I see is an opportunity for a big-tent candidate who isn’t driven by textbook ideology, but by delivered outcomes, sharpened and accelerated through the pragmatists of South Carolina, the union service workers of Las Vegas, the manufacturing unions of Michigan, and the white-collar suburban voters of northeastern Virginia.

Together, this is a map designed to potentially deliver the strongest general election candidate we’ve seen in a generation.

Which leaves only one question remaining: who do you think has what it takes to take it all?