FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Are Democrats on a summer sugar high?
They’re polling surprisingly strongly in some Senate races. But should you bet on those numbers falling back to earth? Plus, some quick thoughts on Alaska and Florida.
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
How popular is the Iran War?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
Why does everyone hate data centers?
My chat with Jasmine Sun about what role data centers could play in the midterms, how the backlash caught Silicon Valley by surprise — and why Claude can be so weird.
A tour of the 7 key Senate races
There’s a 71 percent chance this is where control of the chamber is decided.
Prediction markets aren't magic
My chat with Galen Druke on Wisconsin, models, polls and prediction markets.
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?
Our midterms model finds that polls, fundamentals and history all point toward a strong Democratic year. The House is theirs to lose, but winning four Senate seats is still a tall order.