Here are a preliminary statewide turnout rates for the California, Georgia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia November 2025 statewide elections.
I calculate turnout rates for those eligible to vote, or what I call the voting-eligible population (VEP).
For the denominator, the turnout rates are the Census Bureau’s one-year American Community Survey 2022 and 2023 citizen-voting age population estimates extrapolated to November, 2025. From this I subtract the number of ineligible felons in prison or on probation or parole as reported by the Department of Justice year-end of 2022. I would like more recent data to extrapolate from, but alas the government shutdown. I do not expect major changes to these calculations with updated data when it becomes available.
For the numerator, I use data from the following sources (follow links). For California and Virginia I use the total ballots counted. For Georgia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania I use the vote for the highest turnout office on the ballot. For other elections I use total ballots cast.
Election officials have not counted all ballots yet, so these numbers will likely change. This is particularly true for California, which as I write this is still processing 2.7 million ballots. I add the counted and unprocessed ballots together. Election officials will not accept all of the unprocessed ballots, but it is also possible for California election offices to receive valid mail ballots post-marked by Election Day. The California turnout estimate will likely change as ballot counting proceeds.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State (retention vote for Christine Donohoe, which has the highest participation)
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