The Respiratory Outlook update for July reports ongoing spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas and New Mexico, while the Ebola outbreak rages in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Respiratory Outlook 2025/26 is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.
Compared with the June edition, predictions this month show:
Forecasters now expect 140 confirmed animal cases of NWS this year, though estimates are climbing as detections spread. They anticipate slowed spread with increased USDA containment efforts, including sterile insect releases.
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has passed 2073 confirmed cases, with forecasters putting the eventual outbreak size over 15,000 as the outbreak appears largely uncontained. They give just a 10% chance of a case first confirmed on US soil before 2027, citing limited travel between current outbreak zones, but with an eye on the cities where the virus may spread.
Measles case estimates are maintained at 3,462 with confirmed cases now at 2,231 in the typically slow summer months. Forecasters raised the probability of The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) revoking the US’s measles elimination status before 2027 to 95%, with only direct political intervention preventing the act.
Hantavirus and Clade I Mpox stay low-risk. The MV Hondius outbreak is over, confirming forecasters’ consistently low projections around the disease. Clade I Mpox is expected to reach 39 US cases by year-end, amid uncertainty due to CDC surveillance issues.
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