Metaculus on Substack

We’ve created a Substack. In practical terms, not much changes for you: we’ll send periodic newsletters recapping recent work, including tournament announcements, contest winners, and new products. We’ll keep using our existing newsletter platform for some mailers, and we won’t send you the same content twice.

What Substack adds is room to experiment. We can try formats we haven’t used before, like Lives, Notes, and other short-form posts, all available in the Substack app and on the web. It also gives our newsletters a permanent home: every issue stays up as a post at Metaculus (metaculus.substack.com), so you can find something again once it has left your inbox.

We mean it when we call this an experiment. We want to learn which kinds of content are genuinely useful to you, and finding that out means trying some things outside our usual range. If something works well, or doesn’t, we’d like to hear it. Comment and let us know or reach out.

ICYMI, here are a few important announcements and updates from Metaculus:

Forecasts from the Metaculus community on contested races and the policies they will shape.

Metaculus forecasters track 15 representative US occupations through 2035. Pick a job to see the forecast trajectory, the why behind the numbers, and what comes next.

Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances.

The Epoch AI Robotics Series

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Jun 22

The Epoch AI Robotics series is a collaboration between Epoch AI and Metaculus, in support of Epoch's efforts to understand the trajectory of robotics. Building on prior research, including Where Autonomy Works and the production bottlenecks examined in

Respiratory Outlook June Update: New World Screwworm Enters the US

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Jun 22

The Respiratory Outlook update for June comes after New World Screwworm has crossed into the United States, with the USDA confirming the first locally acquired case in Texas on June 3. The Respiratory Outlook 2025/26 is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared wi…

News & Announcements

FutureEval: Metaculus's AI Forecasting Benchmark

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Jun 22

New research in FutureEval from April and May, 2026. We’ve published more analysis on what makes a forecasting bot work, covering model choice, research strategy, and advice from the bot makers themselves. Highlights are at the bottom of the post, with full writeups on our resources page. If you’re already familiar with FutureEval, scroll to Research Hi…