One of the best-performing investment theses we have developed this year has been Optical Fibre, generating a total return of more than 593% (as of 28 July).
* Preview of the Optical Fibre Thesis on Altis Terminal
The return itself isn’t the most interesting part.
The most interesting part is that every position, every trade, every major event, and every investment decision was documented in real time as the thesis unfolded.
If you’ve never heard of this investment thesis before, here’s the short version.
Inside an AI data centre, performance isn’t determined only by processors (GPUs). It also depends on how quickly data can move between them. Training frontier AI models requires tens of thousands of chips communicating with one another continuously.
At that scale, copper cables simply reach their limits. They lose too much signal over long distances while consuming significantly more power.
The only scalable solution is optical fibre—moving data through glass using light.
This creates a simple but powerful investment dynamic.
As AI clusters become larger, demand for optical fibre grows even faster than the number of GPUs themselves.
Doubling the number of GPUs requires more than double the amount of optical networking infrastructure. Every time Microsoft, Amazon, Google or Meta announces another gigawatt of AI capacity, it mechanically creates another wave of demand for optical fibre.
Rather than trying to predict which AI model or application will ultimately dominate, we invested in the companies building the infrastructure that every AI winner depends on: Corning (optical fibre and cable), Ciena (optical networking equipment), and Lumentum (lasers and optical transceivers).
It is an upstream investment thesis—one that benefits regardless of which AI company ultimately wins.
The fundamentals remain exceptionally strong.
Lumentum has said it can currently satisfy only around 70% of customer demand, while Ciena has indicated that customers would purchase virtually everything it could produce if capacity were available.
Yet despite this, all three companies have fallen between 33% and 50% since June.
The business hasn’t deteriorated.
The market has simply become concerned about the emergence of co-packaged optics and valuations have compressed after an extraordinary rally.
In other words, the price has fallen—not the thesis.
We first started building this investment thesis in March 2025. Since then, the portfolio has returned nearly 600%, peaking above 700% just a few weeks ago.
But our objective has never been to showcase successful trades after the fact.
Our objective is to let subscribers follow an investment thesis while it is still unfolding.
Until now, we have documented these ideas through Macro Notes Premium on Substack. Every trade, every update and every major development was explained inside the newsletter.
The problem is that a newsletter isn’t designed to track a portfolio over months or years.
That’s why we built Altis Terminal.
Starting 14 August, every Macro Notes Premium subscriber will receive access to a live portfolio for each investment thesis.
Instead of reading about a thesis once, you’ll be able to follow it every day.
See every position.
Review every trade.
Track performance in real time.
Understand why positions were increased, reduced or closed.
Receive alerts whenever an important event changes the investment thesis.
Browse every thesis we’ve published, compare their historical performance, and identify which ideas continue to generate the strongest returns.
In other words, Altis Terminal transforms our research from a collection of newsletters into a living investment database.
Access is included at no additional cost for every Macro Notes Premium subscriber.
If you’re not yet a subscriber, join today to secure access before the Terminal launches on 14 August and receive exclusive development updates through our private Telegram channel.
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In the remainder of this edition, we’ll dive much deeper into the Optical Fibre thesis.
We’ll analyse whether the opportunity remains attractive today, examine industry order books, understand how they influence equity prices, evaluate the competitive landscape, and discuss the medium- and long-term outlook.
Because our goal isn’t simply to publish great investment ideas.
It’s to help you discover them early, understand them deeply, and follow them from the first position to the final exit.
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