How Andy Burnham could succeed

My judgment on Starmer’s brief stint as prime minister - almost two years to the day - remains harsh. He was simply not up to the job. But removing prime ministers like football managers is becoming a habit. Britain’s easy come, easy go approach to politics means the business of government has become infinitely harder.

There is not much in Andy Burnham’s record as a minister or as a two-term mayor of Manchester to suggest he is up to the top job either. He is a people pleaser, not a lion-tamer. But he’s a good communicator who has conveyed an inevitability about his bid to become leader of the Labour Party.

In the last 24 hours, I have become a little bit more optimistic about a Burnham government, assuming he makes the right choices about his Cabinet and policy-mix. Here are my six suggestions offered without charge.

1. Sack Reeves, appoint Streeting. Starmer’s category error was making Rachel Reeves his chancellor. Her first Budget was a disaster, a job-destroying omnishambles which alienated business. True, she was boxed in by the manifesto commitment ruling out increase in income tax, national insurance and VAT; but she failed to think creatively and ended up captured by treasury orthodoxy. A man of the reformist Blairite right, Streeting believes in capitalism and wealth creation. He is a far superior communicator. A Burnham-Streeting ticket would reassure financial markets but would also offer political balance. Hiring ex Bank of England deputy governor Andy “two brains” Haldane and ex Goldman Sachs executive Lord Jim “Mr BRICs” O’Neill would also strengthen the economics bench immeasurably.

2. Nixon to China: Burnham is soft-left, but he is malleable. That’s one reason why Labour’s Blairist rump has swung behind him as the best chance of carrying through necessary public services reforms, notably curbing the bloated welfare budget. The (slightly strained) comparison is the way Republicans trusted RIchard Nixon to open relations with communist China. Starmer was never a convincing reformer.. Burnham has the Milburn Review, a Dutch-style welfare reform blueprint on NEETS (not in education, employment or training) ready for adoption. With Streeting’s backing, he could land a signature reform ahead of the next election.

3. Stick with Shabana Mahmoud: Whisper it softly, but the numbers of illegal immigrants are coming down. The Home Secretary’s crackdown is working and she’s making inroads into the backlog of asylum seekers. True, the number of boats crossing the English Channel remains unacceptably high, but the number of crossing are down 40 per cent compared to last year. Much depends on co-operation with the French. Mahmoud - who is also reportedly being considered for the chancellor’s job - should be given a chance to finish her job at the Home Office. Time to end the ministerial merry-go-round and give continuity a chance.

4. Man up on defence: The resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and his talented minister Al Carns were terminal blows to Starmer’s premiership. Healey’s comment that Starmer was unable and the UK treasury unwilling to devote the resources necessary for the security of the nation was the most damning of all. Burnham is said to minded to delay further the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) in order to sign off personally. More delays will undermine further morale in the armed forces and the best laid plans of British defence companies. Burnham should ally with Streeting to find the necessary funds (£20bn plus) to fund defence, if necessary by slashing the welfare bill.

5. Tame Ed Miliband, slow walk net zero: High energy prices are killing British industry and hurting British consumers. Some of the rises are inevitable - the Ukraine war, the US war against Iran and continuing uncertainty over oil supplies from the Persian Gulf - but some of the damage is self-inflicted. Ed Miliband is said to be angling for the chancellorship. Burnham should resist that temptation even if the advantage would be moving Miliband - a net zero fanatic - from the department of energy. In order to protect the UK car industry, Starmer had already begun to adopt a more realistic timetable for shifting to full electric. Burnham should follow suit.

6. Praise Starmer in order to bury him: New leaders are often tempted to bad mouth their predecessors in order to burnish their own credentials. Burnham should err on the side of generosity. Starmer’s legacy in rooting out anti-semitism and Corbynism in the Labour Party stands on its own merits. Moreover his government’s record was by by no means as bad as it was often portrayed. NHS waiting lists are down. Net migration is also well down from the Boris Johnson peak. Starmer’s inability to get his message across to the public remains one of his biggest weaknesses. Burnham can only do better. But to succeed he will need to be brave - and be lucky, like Napoleon’s generals.

ends