Tough Times for the Three Amigos

It seems like just yesterday that Vladimir Putin was going take over Ukraine in a matter of weeks while bolstering both his popularity and his unquestioned rule at home; Benjamin Netanyahu had cleverly and effectively used Hamas terrorism as an excuse to take over Gaza, expand settlements in the West Bank, and launch attacks on Lebanon, all while avoiding a trial for corruption; and Donald Trump had roared into office with a huge mandate and control of all three branches of government, while avoiding sentencing after his felony conviction for corruption.

Not only were all three riding high—it appeared as if they had become unassailable, their positions so powerful, that none of them could be derailed from their inexorable crusade for personal glory, despite, in each case, serious and widespread disapproval at home. But, as the San Antonio Spurs discovered to their amazement and chagrin in Game Four of the NBA finals, seemingly insurmountable leads can vanish if you get lazy, play thoughtlessly, and fail to fully respect an opponent whose determination you have vastly underestimated. As a result, in what must be as much of a shock to them as it has been to the rest of the world, all three would-be or actual autocrats are now losing—in Putin’s and Netanyahu’s case, because of their own arrogance and an opponent who proved far wilier than they were given credit for, and in Trump’s, arrogance and his own stupidity.

When Putin invaded Ukraine, he assumed that Russia, with a vast advantage in men and materiel and what he had been assured was far superior weaponry, would simply overwhelm an undermanned and unsophisticated Ukrainian military. In February 2022, a tens-of-miles long Russian column cruised down the road to Kyiv, only to be ambushed and decimated. From there, Russia bogged down, sometimes literally, and the war eventually settled into a stalemate. Russia held on to territorial gains in the east but was unable to expand its control to the heart of the country. Putin continued to employ what was a glorified human wave strategy, eventually losing hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, as Ukraine hung on, absorbing huge casualties of its own and enduring repeated attacks on its cities and civilian infrastructure.

But Ukraine adapted. Rather than try to counter Russia’s advantages by employing similar tactics, Ukraine chose to fight perhaps the world’s first 21^st century war. They developed an advanced technology to achieve stunning results with low-cost unmanned weapons. Suddenly, there were huge explosions near Moscow and St. Petersburg, which Putin could not explain away and which fully punctured the myth of eventual victory that he had been peddling to the Russian people. Even worse, he had lost so many front-line troops that his ability to fight a “conventional” war had been seriously degraded. Russian military bloggers, who even Putin dares not touch, have increased their blistering condemnation of Putin’s stewardship.

Whether Putin can survive a war without end that he has consistently lied about to the Russian people is not clear—but Peter the Great he ain’t.

Unlike Putin, who was coasting along just fine before his unfortunate decision to invade his neighbor, Netanyahu desperately needed a change of circumstance, which Hamas, stretching its streak of self-destructive initiatives, helpfully provided. Netanyahu had grown increasingly unpopular in Israel. His attempt to fix the judiciary had backfired, his far-right cabinet members seemed to be Nazis in yarmulkes, and he was facing the loss of his position and perhaps his freedom because of quite persuasive accusations of bribery and fraud.

Then his war started.

At first, there were few critics. After all, Israel had been brutally and barbarically attacked by a band of terrorists whose atrocities were unspeakable and gratuitous. Israel wanted revenge and the destruction of Hamas and Netanyahu was just the leader to provide it. Suddenly, his most virulent cabinet members, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, did not look so bad and seemed, in fact, prescient.

Even when Netanyahu pushed ever harder and was widely accused of genocide, many Israelis and Jews and conservatives in the United States remained supportive. Israel was being extreme, it was true, but how else to eradicate an enemy bent on your destruction who chose to ensure its safety by hiding among innocent civilians and children?

But if Putin’s error was in underestimating Ukrainian creativity, Netanyahu’s was in underestimating Donald Trump’s perfidy.

Hamas had been so brutal because its aim was to ignite regional war, which is exactly what transpired. Netanyahu convinced Trump than the Iranian regime was a mere series of paper dominos ready to be blown over by a gust of wind. They should attack it together and rid the world of radical Islam. Trump fell for it.

After “destroying the Iranian military and winning the war on day one,” Trump discovered to his annoyance that the regime did not fall, nor was it going to. Instead, Iran flexed its considerable economic muscle and choked off much of the world’s oil supply, causing gas prices in America to soar while Trump’s approval ratings plunged.

So Trump got out, signing a “memorandum of understanding” that was little more than surrender, leaving Iran more powerful than when the war began and Netanyahu forced to face a coming election looking like a dupe and a fool. Netanyahu has had nine political lives. This might be number ten.

But the biggest loser is Trump himself. Unlike Putin, who was merely following in the footsteps of centuries of autocratic leaders of one sort or another in Russia, or Netanyahu who had inherited the mantle of wartime leader in Israel, Trump had the chance to totally remake American governance, to take this nation where it had never been before. The electorate was behind him, Congress was cowed, the Supreme Court was compliant, and opponents were dismissed as radical or weak.

Instead, like the Spurs, he remained oblivious as the score grew closer until, at some point, he realized his victory was no longer assured. Like them, he panicked, becoming more shrill, more stubborn, more dissociated from reality. Congress, especially the Senate, has grown traces of a backbone, the midterms are closer than anyone could have predicted, and Democrats, who are usually most notable for blowing opportunities, are generally handling themselves with surprising effectiveness. If Trump does lose Congress in November, he will be unlikely to be able to significantly advance his agenda during his last two years in office, a stretch he may well find extrmely unpleasant. The reflecting pool will not be the only thing in Washington turning green.

There are no guarantees, of course, but at this point, it seems that all three might need a lot of luck to survive.

The world will be a far better place if none of them do.