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Brutally Honest by Matej Lancaric · Aug 19, 2026

Brutally Honest #223 by Matej Lancaric

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Matej Lancaric · Brutally Honest by Matej Lancaric

Hey, FAM! What’s up?

Olala, new playable trends are here:

Playable Ads Trends in Mobile Games & Apps - July 2026

·

Aug 18

As the UA landscape evolves, so do the creative trends that shape how games communicate with their audiences. With the rise of Applovin and increased spend on SDK networks, I’ve decided to bring you a monthly trends review of top-performing playable ads

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One of the most interesting takeaways from ChinaJoy was a very different approach to testing new games. Instead of immediately trying to prove that a game can acquire users cheaply at scale, some publishers start with extremely small UA budgets and focus on proving the underlying economics first. The goal is to understand whether retention and monetization can support a healthy 2–3 month LTV, with D7 retention around 50–60% of the “END GAME KPIs” as a particularly strong signal. At this stage, CPI is almost secondary. You are not trying to prove that you can scale yet. You are trying to prove that the product deserves to scale.

How to softlaunch a game properly

This is where the CPI vs. LTV relationship gets really interesting. We normally assume that scaling spend means increasing CPI: buying more users, reaching less efficient audiences, paying more. But the presentation showed that this isn’t always the case. Once a game has proven its economics and enters aggressive scaling, CPI can remain relatively stable and, in some cases, actually drop significantly compared with the testing phase. That completely changes the equation. If your validated LTV gives you room to spend and your CPI improves as volume increases, suddenly a game that looked only moderately attractive during testing can become extremely profitable at scale. Looking at CPI without understanding LTV can therefore give you completely the wrong signal about a game’s potential.

Understanding the CPI vs. LTV equation

·

October 2, 2024

In the competitive landscape of mobile gaming, understanding the dynamics between Cost Per Install (CPI) and Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for optimizing user acquisition (UA) strategies and maximizing revenue.

The playbook is beautifully simple: test small, validate deeply, scale hard. Spend as little as necessary to understand whether the game has real retention and monetization potential. Once the 2–3 month ROI proves the model works, don’t spend the next six months slowly increasing budgets by 20% every week. Open the floodgates and use the next 1–2 months to capture as much profitable traffic as possible while the opportunity exists.

This “traffic credit card” mentality is especially interesting for smaller studios because it separates product validation from scaling: protect your cash while you’re uncertain, but once the data gives you confidence, move with speed. In today’s market, the biggest mistake might not be scaling too aggressively. It might be finding a winner and scaling it too slowly.

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True detective-like exploration of creative trends and historical influences. Delving deep into the world of creatives to uncover hidden patterns and inspirations:

🕹️ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁! Supercell is no stranger to experimenting with playable ads, but this month they introduced something 𝗜 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗻’𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲. 👇

Instead of showcasing the familiar base-building or combat mechanics of Clash of Clans, they borrowed one of gaming's most iconic gameplay loops: 𝗧𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝘀.

The playable opens in a familiar Clash of Clans village under attack. Your defenses are struggling, and the tutorial quickly introduces the core mechanic. Instead of collecting resources in the traditional way, you play a game of Tetris. Players rotate and place wall-shaped blocks onto the board, completing horizontal lines to earn gold. Once the Tetris round ends, the gold is automatically invested into upgrading your village’s defenses before the next enemy wave begins.


Some say it’s a surprisingly elegant way to connect two completely different genres. 𝗜 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲. Maybe that's a good thing. Frustration is a strong motivation ...

https://payhip.com/b/tu4nk

Yours truly, Cornelius.

One of my industry friends amused me with his direct and honest TL;DRs, so we agreed to share it here, too! My friend remains anonymous as Dr.Doom!

“It seems the king of killing games is not even able to kill games anymore, duh! After the trainwreck launch and 2 reboots they are considering a - drumroll - another reboot🤣Maybe if it would actually have a working item system? nah, just throw in more cosmetics 😅 this time will be different” Sincerely, Dr.Doom (https://mobilegamer.biz/supercell-says-mo-co-is-underperforming-and-will-be-rebooted-again-but-killing-it-is-an-unlikely-scenario/)

Because life is too short to be serious.

Thank you for reading Brutally Honest by Matej Lancaric. This post is public so feel free to share it.

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𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 $𝟰𝟬𝟬𝗞+ 𝗮 𝗱𝗮y. 🤑 Bus Traffic Fever = Marble Sort and the bus-jam arrows game into one brutally slow puzzler. Scaling, but not for long. This game "should" have ~𝟭,𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘄. It has ~20 👇

Bus Traffic Fever (by GooDroid, a CyberAgent subsidiary in Tokyo) 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀 - Marble Sort's bench-sorting up top, bus/traffic-jam arrows on the bottom into one annoying-but-genuinely-sticky machine. The design insight is uncomfortable but real: the frustration IS the monetization. Levels are punishingly slow with no speed-up, so the sunk-cost fallacy does the work — after 30 minutes invested, you watch the ad instead of restarting.

Felix's 𝗮𝗱-𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 makes it a $200K+/day game: ~$70K/day IAP plus an estimated ~$131K/day in ads (about 75% of revenue), with revive-after-fail alone driving ~60-70% of that. Correct for Sensor Tower's recent DAU under-counting and it's plausibly a $400-500K/day title. Soft-launched in March, ~2M+ DAU, US-heavy IAP with tier-3/4 volume traffic.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺: 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗔 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝘅𝗮 𝗔𝘄𝗮𝘆 - 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗼. ~20 new creatives in 30 days on ~400K downloads/day, running ~85% AppLovin, with basically nothing on Google, Moloco, or Mintegral. For numbers like these you need roughly 20 fresh unique concepts a week - 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟬-𝟯𝟬𝟬 𝗮 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀. This game "should" have ~𝟭,𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘄. It has ~20. That's ~100x under where it needs to be. AppLovin-only scales beautifully for two or three months, then the CPIs blow out, you hit the moon, your competitors hit the moon, and the game dies. We watched it happen to Hexa Away.

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UA Review Bible: How to do it Properly

·

Aug 4

A practical field guide for CMOs, UA Directors, and UA Managers who want reviews that actually change things. Built on two real accounts: a $1.19M geo puzzle, and a mature social app navigating a major spend decision.

Playable Ads Trends in Mobile Games & Apps - July 2026

·

Aug 18

As the UA landscape evolves, so do the creative trends that shape how games communicate with their audiences. With the rise of Applovin and increased spend on SDK networks, I’ve decided to bring you a monthly trends review of top-performing playable ads

📖​The Playable BIBLE: Winning recipe for 2026

·

Mar 1

Playable ads in 2025 stopped being a “cool side format” and quietly became the backbone of serious UA, especially once you plug them into video‑led funnels, AI workflows, and brutal creative volume.

Today was a good day.

Yeah, I think you def need more + the sum was for the whole batch, but I can split it now and then work on more stuff

Sounds good!

Honestly, this is more a project to help you to get things going. I am not making money on it

Yessir, I appreciate that! (and if we make it work you’re definitely getting more business from us :D)

Well, we will! It’s already looking very solid..

Today was a good day.

“Probably wants to send you some criticism for being successful - Felix, 2.5g chat

The AI revolution is here, and it’s transforming the way we approach mobile games marketing.

From creating scroll-stopping ad creatives to optimizing user acquisition strategies, AI is the game-changer we can’t ignore

Ask Matej AI a question. It’s actually quite good!

We produced one more episode at 2.5 Gamers. Check it out now:

We started a new segment. Give it a go:

We are opening up a Slack channel for everybody. It is the most inclusive slack for the gaming industry. Female, male, non-binary, juniors, mid-level, seniors, vendors, developers = EVERYBODY! We are waiting for you ♥️

Feel free to join here!

Please do me a favor and share this with someone in your network who you think would benefit from the insights and brutal honesty. It would mean a lot to me!

Take care, everyone! See you next Monday!

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Read the original on lancaric.substack.com

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