2026 Redraft / Best Ball Thoughts & Notes

Hey Everyone,

I still have work to do for my official redraft model and big off-season project but i wanted to share a few of my big redraft / Best Ball thoughts with some stats.

Trigger warning: I am not nice about Parker Washington.

Going to cover: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden, Jameson Williams, Parker Washington, Jordan Addison, and Terrance Ferguson.

Enjoy!

The core upside argument: When Joe Burrow is healthy, the Bengals pass the ball. When Joe Burrow passes the ball, Ja’Marr Chase’s ceiling is unmatched.

In 2025, when Burrow started games, Ja’Marr Chase averaged 20.12 FPpG in games where the Bengals were basically out of playoff contention. In 2024, Chase had a full season with Burrow and averaged 23.7 FPpG.

From 2021 to 2025, Burrow was healthy enough for 20+ pass attempts in 64 games. In those games, Cincinnati had a Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) of +5.69. +5.69 would have ranked #1 in the NFL in 2025. Zac Taylor was the play caller for all of those games and is the play caller for CIN heading into 2026.

[POTENTIAL GRAPH of 2025 PROE]

Definition note: PROE is simply a team’s actual pass rate minus their expected pass rate (calculated based on down, distance, time remaining, the score, and the yard line)

64 games is about as good of a sample size as one can get in the NFL and this trend seems spoken for. When Burrow and Chase are healthy, the Bengals pass the ball.

Joe Burrow PFF Passing Grades:

• 2021: 91.1 (#1 in the NFL, min 200 dropbacks)

• 2022: 91.0 (#1 in the NFL, min 200 dropbacks)

• 2023: 76.8 (#17 in the NFL, min 200 dropbacks)

• 2024: 92.9 (#2 in the NFL, min 200 dropbacks)

• 2025: 91.3 (#2 in the NFL, min 200 dropbacks)

The Bengals were mostly irrelevant in 2025 and it’s easy to forget how much of a dominant passing threat they can be when Burrow is healthy.

In 2025, we saw a major downward shift in PROE for almost the entire league, even in a season where Burrow was hurt, the Bengals finished in the top 5 for positive PROE. I assume this can only improve with a healthy Burrow at the helm and with the league shifting towards the run, Chase could become an even greater advantage for fantasy purposes.