I write for The Athletic now!
I wanted to take this time to go over my 2026 season schedule of content and where you can find each piece of it. PLUS, I am going to create a glossary of terms for you to know all the gibberish I spout during the season.
REDRAFT RANKINGS / MODEL is my number one goal right now. I am working on it literally as I type this. I want the best for y’all and I am being a bit of a perfectionist here.
Website updates. Once that is done I have lots of website updates planned
Redraft Models (Posted on Substack)
Trade Value Chart and initial values (Posted on The Athletic)
A reluctant Week 1 writeup (Posted on Substack). I generally hate trying to predict week 1 because I am not good at it. I have no data and teams change so much that its tough for me. I will put something together
Early Predicted Pressure Table (Patreon) — Just a table and very light analysis
Early CIWO (Patreon) — Just a table and very light analysis
Early RBH (Patreon) — Just a table and very light analysis
Trade Value Chart (The Athletic) — this will either be weekly or bi-weekly I think
Coach, I Was Open (CIWO) Article (The Athletic) — This is a trial run. This may or may not stay on The Athletic
Route-Based Heroes (RBH) Article (SUBSTACK) — SUBSTACK
Week 2 Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value (SUBSTACK) - The crown jewel
COMMENT any terms you want to see defined here
PROE = Pass Rate Over Expectation … ETR has a good writeup here
Basic idea: lots of ways to split up PROE, but the basic idea is “who is passing the ball more than we expect?” I (and many other analysts) like to look at Neutral PROE. So in situations where the win probability is 20% to 80%, how much are you throwing the ball more or less than expected.
WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating — good fantasy life article here about tons of air yards related stats.
1.5 * Target Share + 0.7 * Share of Team Air Yards
Basic idea: Target share alone is very strong and tells us a lot about the pecking order. blending some air yards in there helps us gauge value.
Predicted Targets & Predicted Air Yards — Metrics that I created using route level data.
Basic idea: what if a receiver SHOULD have earned a target but didn’t? there is signal there. We can use machine learning to predict the probability a player SHOULD have earned a target based on the features of the route and play they were a part of.
Share of Predicted Targets (SPT) & Share of Predicted Air Yards (SPAY) — Metrics that I created using route level data
STP = Player Predicted Targets / sum of Team Predicted Targets
STAY = Player Predicted Air Yards / sum of Team Predicted Air Yards
Basic idea: using the predicted counting stats, we can create ‘predicted versions’ of the stats you know and love. The beautiful thing is that they are typically more predictive than the stats we are used to.
PWOPR = Predicted Weighted Opportunity Rating — A metric that I created
1.5 * Share of Predicted Targets + 0.7 * Share of Predicted Air Yards
Basic idea: We can take this predicted targets thing a step further and create a “Predicted WOPR” … This is a great indication of your skill level and expected opportunity in an offense. its very stable and is very useful in modeling.
Predicted Pressure — I don’t have a good writeup for this one
I created a model that uses QB tendencies + oline + defense information to predict a QB’s EXPECTED pressure in their upcoming matchup.
Basic idea: find QBs who are really good when kept clean and have upcoming matchups with low predicted pressure.
My ‘Terms’
‘Coach I Was Open’ (CIWO) — Share of Predicted Targets is more stable and more predictive of future targets. If a player has a far superior Share of Predicted Targets than ACTUAL Target Share in Week N, their probability of seeing more targets in Week N+1 is better. I will often refer to these players as “CIWO" players”.
CIWO = Week N Share of Predicted Targets > Week N Target Share
‘Route Based Heroes’ (RBH) — This is a bit more complex, but basically, when a player has a high Predicted FPpG (based on their PWOPR, WOPR, and some efficiency stats) than their ACTUAL FPpG they will eventually become an RBH
RBH = Predicted FPpG > Actual FPpG
Single Coverage Monster (SCM) — I am not sure if this will be back in 2026
Basic idea: some WRs are MONSTERS in single coverage situations. you know the ones.We find WRs who have an increased target share in single coverage → find WRs who are about to see a lot of single coverage → they become a monster.
First Read Beast (FRB) — I am not sure if this will be back in 2026
Basic idea: some WRs are BEASTS in earning first read targets. Some defenses give up a lot of first read targets. We find WRs who have an increased target share in first read situations → find WRs who are about to see defenses who struggle against first reads → they become a beast.
If you have any other terms you want defined here or think other people should know, LET ME KNOW in the comments or a message. I just put some of the big ones.
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