Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy
So real people might not be irrational for doing so, too.
Stranger Apologies
Philosopher at MIT, trying to convince people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think.
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Latest posts
A majority didn't vote for a liberal nightmare
On misperceiving the other side
No, post-election punditry isn't hindsight bias
Let the pundits be pundits
Ambiguity Drives Hindsight Bias
New experimental evidence
Only Fools Avoid Hindsight Bias
Why news usually provides evidence that you expected it
The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 2: Social Media)
Why social media makes us sad.
The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 1)
Why public discourse should be negative even when things are going well
Centrists are (probably) less biased
Why we should expect those in the middle to be more sensitive to evidence
Ideological Bayesians
Why limits on attention can lead reasonable people into bias and polarization.
Representativeness is Rational When Memory is Limited
It makes sense to prioritize remembering stereotypical outcomes