Trump to Zelensky. “You don’t have the cards…”

On 28 February 2025, President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky had a now famous Oval Office altercation in full glare of a global audience. The pugnacious Zelensky, arguably Ukraine’s Churchill, debated point for point with the equally pugnacious Trump, with Zelensky butting in just as Trump butts in. Trump didn’t like this. His put down to Zelensky was “You don’t have the cards…!’

Now, some 16 months later, Zelensky’s Ukraine seems to hold a strong deck of cards. It’s Putin whose hand is looking weak. This is a flip on what many assumed: ‘little’ Ukraine could never prevail against the might of Russia. Given Trump’s ‘card’ comment it can be guessed that Trump and his advisers held this view.

In this Substack article I’ll give an update on my October 2025 assessment Is Ukraine’s Drone Warfare beating Putin’s Russia? First, a big qualifier. I’m not a war analyst specialist. Rather my assessment is based entirely on online commentary, much of which is on the ground in the war zone, some clearly pro-Ukraine, others pro-Russian and others seeking to put facts given the usual fog of war constraints. Given that, treat my assessment with the same caution with which I make it.

The reason for an assessment now is that there seems to be a developing consensus about the state of play in the Ukraine-Russian war. This consensus developed particularly during June this year. Pro Russian commentaries have gone quiet. The independent military analysts seem to be agreeing with pro Ukraine commentators.

The current state of play seems to be the following:

Ukraine

• has effectively neutered Russia’s great Black Sea fleet. Ukraine has substantial free access for its trade ships through the Black Sea to global markets.

• is striking deep into Russia itself. Now, striking Russia’s Baltic Sea naval fleet around the St Petersberg region. This has emboldened European countries to raid and take command of Russian shadow oil vessels that no longer have Russian naval escorts.

• claims it has taken out some 42 percent of Russia’s oil production capacity. There seems to be wide debate on this figure. Russia now has domestic oil shortages and has been importing some of its oil from its oil rich neighbours suggesting the oil attacks are effective!

The really big news is that Ukraine

• is in the process of putting the Russian occupied Crimea under siege. There’s a strong view amongst military commentators and analysts that Ukraine is progressively putting the squeeze on the choke points of road and rail, with sea born supplies to Crimea already neutered. If I can gauge the sentiment of fast-moving events during June, I get the sense that Ukraine is rapidly building to sealing off Crimea closing its northern and southern transport routes. (I show maps below)

In summary, Zelensky is looking more and more like he’s holding some strong cards and his hand is improving. Where does this leave President Trump in his geo-global playbook?

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Quick Recap.

In October 2025 I reported that the front line was essentially frozen. In spite of persistent predictions, mostly emanating from the USA, that Russia was on the verge of big breakthroughs, this had not happened. The line since October has barely shifted. Any Russian ‘advances’ have been over areas the size of a football field and at the cost of massive Russian causalities and loss of Russian equipment. Quite recently, Ukraine is claiming to have recaptured some territory, measured in hundreds of square kilometres. Military observers are not sure of the accuracy of this claim but are not prepared to ignore them.

Most dramatically, by October last year it was clear that Ukraine, without a navy, had damaged the ‘great’ Russian Black Sea fleet, sinking the Russian navy’s flag ship Moskva. So effective was the Ukrainian operations that the Russian navy fled the key Crimean port of Sevastopol to hole up in the Russian territory port of Novorossiysk.

Ukraine Controls the Black Sea

Since October, Ukraine has eliminated much of the air defences around Novorossiysk, drone bombed the port, sinking or disabling a Russian submarine and several Russian surface naval ships. Ukraine continues to attack the port. The Black Sea fleet has mostly been neutralised as it now dares not leave port. This is militarily significant in that Ukraine has demonstrated unexpected expertise. Economically this is important for Ukraine. As one of the world’s major grain producers, Ukraine has for some time been exporting grain unhindered through the Black Sea globally via Istanbul.

Crimea

Putin took Crimea without a shot being fired in 2014. Arguably, Crimea played the critical role in Putin’s occupation of Eastern Ukraine as the key launch pad for attacks. Crimea’s ongoing military role for Putin has been as a base for largely unhindered bombing of Ukrainian cities, infrastructure and support for the Eastern Ukraine offences.

Ukraine is building to a situation where it can seal off Crimea. Putin’s engineering pride, the Kerch Bridge was first bombed in October 2022 damaging the rail and road but not crippling the flow of traffic.

Subsequently, Ukrainian underwater drones exploded at the base of the main, critical support pillars weaking the structure such that heavy traffic is supposedly restricted. Ukraine had already destroyed the 3 ferries and loading facilities that also linked Crimea to the Russian mainland. June reports indicate that Ukraine has been further bombing those ferry facilities. Importantly, the air defence (anti-drone) installations around the Kerch bridge have been under relentless Ukraine drone attack. Speculation is that those defences are near eliminated. There’s a growing view that Ukraine is positioning to take out the Kersh Bridge at a timing of their choosing.

In Northern Crimea, supplies must come through a restricted number of roads and bridges in terrain that is boggy, marshy and otherwise impassable. Ukraine has recently disabled several of the bridges and successfully attacked Russian train and road conveys.

Further, Ukraine has been taking out Russian radar, drone tracking and defence installations and attacking Russian airfields, electricity and petrol infrastructure. A view is strongly forming that Ukraine is close to being positioned to deny Russia control of the Crimean airspace and to seal off all access routes into Crimea.

Ukraine doesn’t have to reoccupy Crimea. It can starve Crimea through a siege. Putin has some 50,000 troops in Crimea and there’s a population of some 2.5 million non-military. Already the Crimean Governor has stopped the supply of oil for non-military use in Crimea. There’s said to be heavy traffic across the Kerch bridge out of Crimea, people leaving while the bridge still stands. This includes military.

The sealing off of Crimea by Ukraine would be a humiliation for Putin. Crimea is the jewel in the Russian invasion crown. It’s a critical, central military centrepiece. More, it’s a symbol of Putin’s power over his neighbours. At this stage, Ukraine doesn’t need to occupy Crimea but by sealing it off, Ukraine effectively controls Crimea and with it the entire Black Sea and more.

The Baltic Sea

Crimea is not the only card that Zelensky now looks like holding. Ukraine has turned its attention to the Baltic Sea. Kiev in Ukraine is some 1700 kms from St Petersberg in Russia at a point in the Baltic Sea, the same distance from Melbourne to Brisbane. Ukraine has launched massive successful drone attacks of the major Baltic Sea port facilities in the St Petersberg area. Key targets included oil terminals, a Russian naval vessel in dry dock and more. In addition, Ukraine has destroyed or disabled several major Russian naval escort ships.

The significance of these Ukrainian attacks is that Ukraine is causing massive disruption to Russia’s shadow oil fleet. The shipping of oil from St Petersberg through the Baltic Sea is arguably Russia’s most important revenue route. Without Russian naval escorts European nations have been seizing these Russian oil ships to enforce the trade embargoes on Russia. Progressively, Zelensky is adding strong cards to his deck.

Belarus

Evidence of Zelensky’s strong hand is the recent poker game with Belarus.

Under its long time President dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has been and is a vasal state of Russia. Russia has been using relay equipment located near the Belarus-Ukraine border to guide drones and missiles on bombing missions into Ukraine. During June Ukrainian President Zelensky threatened Lukashenko that if Lukashenko didn’t close down those relay stations that Ukraine would take them out. Lukashenko was faced with a choice. Adhere to the dictates of his ‘boss’ Putin or concede to Zelensky’s demands. Lukashenko switched off the relay stations. Zelensky now has a reputation of acting on his threats.

Oil

It seems incredible but if true, Ukraine’s claim to have disabled 42 percent of Russian oil capacity is massive. Even if the actual figure is around one third as other analysts claim it is still huge. Oil is Russia’s economic lifeblood and revenue from oil sales feeds the Russian war machine. Ukraine claims to have attacked 11 different Russian oil refineries and targets in June alone.

Russia is Counter Punching.

Russia’s battlefield efforts appear to be in a stalemate with Ukraine at best. But the loss of personnel is staggering. It is Estimated that 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed throughout the war, part of the total of 1.4 million casualties. These estimates calculate that Russia is losing 30,000 soldiers a month but can only recruit 27,000. With such an ongoing slaughter of humanity you’d wonder how long the Putin war can continue.

Putin’s biggest and most effective counter punch appears to be in the ongoing persistent heavy missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian targets. As just one example in the last few days Russia destroyed an apartment block in Kyiv killing 30 people. At least 28 missiles were fired at Kyiv in just one night. This is just one night in one Ukrainian city. The situation for Ukraine is desperate in this respect. Ukraine is pleading for patriot missiles which are the only effective defence against these Russian assaults.

Moscow Under aAttack

Ukraine is stepping up its drone and missiles assaults on Moscow in what is supposed to be the most heavily protected city on the globe. A recent attack hit a major oil refinery and forced the evacuation of Russia’s largest airport. In particular this is bringing the reality of this war home to the heart of Russia and the Russian people.

Conclusion

Reporting on and making comment on what is happening in the midst of the fog of war must always be treated with caution. I treat my reports and commentary here with caution. But one of the more cautious commentary outlets I follow is from Washington DC, The Hill. In a recent article they quote a former Russian deputy minister of energy and an economist describing Russia as in ‘a crisis.’ Further the head of Russia’s largest bank issuing a warning that the war must end. Such criticism is normally dangerous in Putin’s Russia. The Hill describes Ukraine’s long range targeting of Crimea and deep inside Russia as delivering to Zelensky ‘strategic and psychological victories over Putin.”

Cards

Zelensky is demonstrating that he’s no card trick magician. He’s playing a long game, building his card deck with increasing strength.