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Dr. Juan Camilo Orduz · Mar 11, 2025

Prior Predictive Modeling in Bayesian AB Testing

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In this notebook we generate a simulation to reproduce the results of the great blog post “The Bet Test: Spotting Problems in Bayesian A/B Test Analysis” , where Tyler Buffington discussed about some caveats of using Bayesian AB testing when not thinking about the prior predictive distribution on the key metrics of interested. If you haven’t read it yet, please do it before continuing ;) 
 In…

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