Introduction to Bayesian Power Analysis: Exclude a Null Value

Recently, I have been thinking a lot about data-driven decision-making, particularly in the context of experimentation. Why? I am uncomfortable with the common practice of using p-values and frequentist null hypothesis significance testing to make decisions. I don’t feel confident about the approach. I think it is because I do not get it. For instance, when I am forced to explain the definition of a confidence interval precisely, it does not come naturally. I always need to check with a trustworthy source (it is common to find wrong explanations online). If I do not understand it, I cannot use it, especially for decision-making. I always play this exercise when thinking about business recommendations in real applications: “Would I bet my salary on this?” Whenever I work with p-values, the answer to this question is no.