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Janky Thoughts

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July 18th, 2026: Weekend Thinking Cap

As the ML/LLM capex boom expands ever larger, a useful exercise is to spend some time thinking about how large this can go, and when or what can potentially derail it. To that end, a post I came across recently puts a lot of things in perspective.

May 14th, 2026: Strait of Hormuz

The Iran war has been going on for about two and a half months now, and despite the ceasefire, I am getting concerned. Again.

Circuit breaker != limit up

What is the difference between the circuit breaker and limit up/down rules? How do these affect pricing between ETFs and their underlying assets, especially with respect to arbitrage?

May 9th, 2026: Weekend video binge – Dire straits

The Wall Street Journal goes over the high level problems with regards to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis

Some think of it as voodoo magic, others think of it as crayon drawings on price charts. But does technical analysis actually work? If so, why don't more people do it?

AI

The world is ablaze with talk and speculation on Artificial Intelligence (AI), with untold billions of dollars poured into AI related companies.

Tariffs

The SPX just had its worst week since 2020. You know, the year where everything shut down. Because of tariffs that everyone was warned about, for almost a year now. What happened?

March 16th, 2025: Weekend video binge – Sequence of Returns Risk

Ben Felix, an actual financial advisor, is out with a video about sequence of returns risk, a topic that we covered somewhat Monte Carlo.

SPY vs VOO

SPY is the first S P500 ETF ever listed, and because of that first mover advantage, it has amassed a large number of shareholders. However, VOO, a competitor from Vanguard now beats SPY by net asset value, even though it launched much later. Should you switch?

January 19th, 2025: Weekend Video Binge – Monetary policy, fiscal policy and central banks

Richard Koo, celebrated economist who has worked in the Federal Reserve and is now chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, joins Adam Taggart in this fascinating and detailed look into monetary policy, fiscal policy and central banks.