Running against a clock: Trump and Iran harden their positions

As the United States seeks to strangulate Iran economically, the question is whether the policy, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports at its core, is pushing the Islamic Republic toward collapse or hardening its resolve. I suggest that Trump’s economic strangulation policy and calls for regime change may close the door on diplomacy. If anything, the president’s maximalist approach and rhetoric play into Iran’s survival narrative and undermine Iranian proponents of a negotiated end to the war, while strengthening the country’s hardliners. Finally, I look at whether sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic’s political, military, and economic elite may prove more effective than the United States’ sweeping economic blockade that penalises ordinary Iranians the most.

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