A look at why the United States and Iran may be on the brink of renewed military conflict. I unpack Donald Trump’s stepped-up pressure campaign and the limits of his sanctions-based leverage, Trump’s rejection of a fleeting opportunity to negotiate, and why pressure to capitulate hardens Iran rather than bends it. From there I get into why Iran may increasingly see escalation as its least bad option, and the reasons the UAE could again become a primary regional target.
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