FIFA World Cup Semifinals Preview⚽️

All but four matches are in the books and we got the final four everybody (except for the losing countries) wanted.

Dare I say my leans from the quarterfinals preview were pretty good:

• France to get tested and under was where I was most off. The only test was when they’d score eventually and this should have gone over.

• Spain to win 2-1/3-1 with some bumps along the way was spot on. I ended up selling the both teams to score, which did hit (but was rather lucky to do so).

• England to come through in a slow game was spot on as well. I got shaken out of the under in-play, but it was definitely the right read and bet.

• Argentina win to nil failed (yet again), but I was right about the match being similar to their R32.

Good analysis, my execution was so-so. But all four favorites came through, and that’s what mattered most. Let’s see how these semifinals shape up.

France’s first test ended up being no test at all. They bossed their quarterfinal from start to finish, putting up a stunning 3.69 xG, which is close to 3 xG even without the missed penalty. Morocco did in fact have more of the possession as I suspected they might (52%), but almost none of it was when or where it mattered (8 touches in opposition box). This was as comprehensive a win as they come and on another day France could have scored four or five. I got very lucky here with the under that I managed to progressively offload in the first half, before switching to the handicap and over 1.5 in-play and over 2.5 after the second goal. They didn’t get the third but overall satisfied given I was quite off about Morocco being able to put up a fight.

Spain were rather unimpressive in another late win. They did put up 1.96 xG, but 1.14 xG came off the two goals which were both tap-ins around the 6yd box. Outside of that they created almost nothing, particularly in the second half. They admittedly also conceded almost nothing at the back and this probably should’ve been another clean sheet, but it had to happen eventually. Also very notable that Spain got off the hook here with Tielemans getting injured in the warm-up and Courtois injured in the second half, which eventually ended up losing the game for Belgium.

The difference in attacking prowess between these two is visible to the naked eye: France have three world-class players up front (Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise) and another three international class players for the remaining spot (Doué, Barcola, Cherki). Spain have one world-class player (Yamal) that’s not in best shape and another international class player in Olmo. That’s also visible in the numbers:

• France: 2.13 non-penalty xG/match, 0.37 non-penalty goal vs xG/match overperformance, 0.12 xG/shot, 13.89% conversion rate.

• Spain: 1.95 non-penalty xG/match, -0.12 non-penalty goal vs xG/match underperformance, 0.11 xG/shot, 10% conversion rate.

• Yamal: 0.34 xG/match, -0.11 goals vs xG underperformance, 0.07 xG/shot, 0.22 xA/match.

• Dembélé: 0.3 xG/match, 0.68 goals vs xG overperformance, 0.10 xG/shot, 0.29 xA/match.

Spain weren’t an attacking powerhouse at the Euro 2024 either, but they sure felt like a more threatening team with an in-form Williams as left winger vs the rather pedestrian Baena. In comparison, France have upgraded massively: 2026 Dembélé is better than 2024 Dembélé, Mbappé is maybe thereabouts, Olise is an insane update to Mouani and Kanté is replaced by another class attacking player in Doué or Barcola.

Where Spain do shine is possession football and, so far, defense. Numbers provided per match:

• Spain: 66% possession, 90.4% pass completion rate, 83.9% final third passes completed, 4.5 through balls, 8.8 passes per defensive action (= pressing proficiency), 0.31 non-pen xG, -0.14 goals conceded vs xG overperformance, 0.05 xG/shot.

• France: 58.4% possession, 88.4% pass completion rate, 81.6% final third passes completed, 5.33 through balls, 12.9 passes per defensive action, 0.51 non-pen xG, -0.17 goals conceded vs xG overperformance, 0.08 xG/shot.

Spain play a bit higher up the pitch, less direct, yet press higher and rather concede a foul to get back into defensive shape. France also play possession football but can switch it up to direct counterattacking football and are overall a bit less solid in possession.

I expect Spain to have the majority of the ball and try to impose themselves on the match. France will probably not press as high as they did against Morocco, but I don’t expect them to fall back to their own penalty box either as long as the match is drawn. I do think Spain thus far haven’t really had to play a team that is willing and able to counterattack. Portugal refused (by not starting Leao). Judging by the final five minutes after the goal, they could have done more damage. Belgium wasn’t really able except for a single useful attack that ended up being the goal.

France should be physically superior, even though I think both Spanish full-backs are excellent (and underrated) and will be up to the task. Spain should have the upper hand in midfield as well. I’m less bullish on Oyarzabal seeing any kind of daylight against the best CB pairing in the tournament. I think their best chance of getting a goal is to overload Yamal’s side with Porro, which should also be the less proficient side for France in attack. France on the other hand will probably try to dispossess Spain and hit them with direct attacks through any of their front four. Either way, it should be a fantastic contest.

No absences on either side and conditions will be no factor in the semifinal. Tchouaméni will be back for France.

I watched the 2024 semi in Munich and remember thinking that France will get them back in the future (I bet France that day). I tend to think that will happen today.

I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the 2025 Nations League match. France were without their current CB pairing and Spain still fielded an in-form Nico Williams. The 2024 semi is the better benchmark in my opinion. Back then, France took the lead but Spain were clinical in taking their chances and France were the harmless attacking side that had nothing to add in the second half. Neither team had to come from behind thus far at the tournament. But I can’t help but think that France would be much better equipped to come back from a deficit. Spain played the nominally stronger teams the last two rounds. And yet, I can’t help shake the feeling that the circumstances were favorable to them. Yes, they were in full control against Portugal and Belgium for all but maybe a combined 20 minutes. But they also benefited from injuries to oppoenent key players (Nuno Mendes, Tielemans, Courtois) and scored two late winners that were not really coming. France were supposed to get tested against Morocco, but they made it look easy. I don’t think tonight will be easy by any means. But if I had to guess, I’d say France have another gear and can play at a level Spain currently can not.

I’m still overweight on Spain on the outright though, which I’ll be looking to level out at some point before/during the match. I have this at 57:43 France but France at 34-35 on the outright and Spain at 24. There’s a big premium now on France on the outright, which I can understand but still think is wrong. No real value on the match odds, as you’d expect for a semi. I’d back France at 2.7+ prematch but will otherwise just look to get my book in order on the outright. No idea about goals—I’d expect an intense but not necessarily fast-paced match. If I had to take a bet, I’d take the under. But if I had to guess a result, I’d say 2-1 France or France in extra time.

England came through the match I expected: a slow, tough grind in brutally humid conditions. They (again) didn’t play well or pretty but (again) got the job done. That’s what you hire Thomas Tuchel for. England’s best and one really good spell came in the first 15 minutes of extra time. Other than that, they looked either clueless in possession (first half) or got pushed back and defended (second half, second half of extra time). The team isn’t short on mental strength but outside of Bellingham and Kane, they look very ordinary in terms of quality.

Argentina fared no better against Switzerland. They took the lead from a set piece on their only venture forward in the first half. Instead of controlling possession in the second half to kill the game against a harmless Swiss offense, they went passive again and deservedly conceded the equalizer. Embolo’s silly double yellow let them off the hook, and they managed to deservedly win it before pens. But yet another match where Argentina seemingly wanted to take it easy or, worse, just couldn’t play better before their backs weren’t against the wall.

Both of these teams are kind of one-trick ponies that heavily depend on their star players. That’s not the worst thing in international football, but it doesn’t bode well for whoever goes through to the final.

• England: 1.56 non-penalty xG/match, 0.27 non-penalty goal vs xG/match overperformance, 0.10 xG/shot, 11.96% conversion rate.

• Argentina: 1.74 non-penalty xG/match, 0.93 non-penalty goal vs xG/match overperformance, 0.11 xG/shot, 17.02% conversion rate.

• Kane: 0.56 xG/match, 0.39 goals vs xG overrperformance, 0.16 xG/shot, 0.16 xA/match.

• Bellingham: 0.46 xG/match, 0.59 goals vs xG overperformance, 0.15 xG/shot, 0.17 xA/match.

• Messi: 0.89 xG/match, 0.46 goals vs xG overperformance, 0.16 xG/shot, 0.57 xA/match.

Kane and Bellingham are two thirds of England’s entire offense, Messi is about half of Argentina’s (and these numbers are leaving out pens, which both teams have taken a number of). England do have a threat down their flanks, at least in theory. Saka, Gordon, and Madueke are capable players, but none have shown much except for spells in individual games. Argentina have Alvarez and/or Martinez as goal-scoring threats, but almost all of their creativity from open play comes from Messi dribblings or Messi through balls.

On the defensive end, I think England are the slightly more solid side despite being more direct:

• England: 57.2% possession, 88.8% pass completion rate, 78.3% final third passes completed, 4.33 through balls, 11.4 passes per defensive action (= pressing proficiency), 0.68 non-pen xG, 0.15 goals conceded vs xG underperformance, 0.06 xG/shot.

• Argentina: 60.1% possession, 90.4% pass completion rate, 80.8% final third passes completed, 6.5 through balls, 10.9 passes per defensive action, 0.57 non-pen xG, 0.43 goals conceded vs xG underperformance, 0.07 xG/shot.

I really don’t think there is much between these two. Either of them will be a solid underdog in what I expect to be a more lopsided final than the semifinals. Neither has much of a leg up in terms of travel or accumulated fatigue either. England had to go through one extra humid extra time, fight through 100 minutes in Mexico City, and play the full 90 minutes against DR Congo. Argentina had their own humidity extra time against Cape Verde, their own stoppage time winner against Egypt, and another arid extra time in Kansas City. I’d expect both teams to be at a significant disadvantage in the final, even more so if this match goes 120 minutes as well.

No heat problems this time and England will have all players available except for the suspended Quansah. Argentina have no absences.

I’m currently overweight on Argentina on the outright, even though I expect England to make the final. England are ever so slight favorite for me here, but I’d put this at 51:49 and not the 55:45 the market is currently offering. I’m not sure where this bullishness on England is suddenly coming from after they’ve been doubted all the way to the semis. Yes, Argentina looked pretty pedestrian again playing a nominally mediocre team, but that doesn’t mean they’ll suck as bad against England. There’s currently still a 4c spread between England and Argentina on the outright market on Polymarket (was even 5c)—I’d expect that to close by kickoff. My fair value is actually slightly positive on Argentina, because I’d rate them a tad higher in the final. Goal line looks fair, this should be a very tight contest that I expect to go to extra time. I might have a stab at the draw here. Best guess is 1-1 after 120 minutes and England win it on penalties (yes, really!).

Just sit back and enjoy! I don’t think this is the round to force a bet if you have no good read. My intuition is that we’ll get a more obvious play in the final (and maybe in the third play playoff as well). Good luck!