FIFA World Cup Final Preview⚽️

The World Cup is almost over and the final two matches await!

Writing these previews has cost me 10 subscribers or so, but that’s ok since I long abandoned plans to make this Substack anything else than an occasional diary. This will be the last sports post for a good while, so hang in there.

My semifinals preview was solid on analysis, not so great on predictive value. I took a sizable loss in the first match when I was too bullish on France being able to stage a comeback. The second was a minor loss, mostly on goals.

I’ll do a shorter preview for Saturda’s bronze match, aka ‘the loser’s final’. Scroll down for the preview of Sunday’s final, which I think will be better than many expect. We rarely see this fixture in international football and I think it’s preferable to another Spain-England repeat.

France thoroughly disappointed in their semi. I wouldn’t call them overrated, but they picked the wrong day to make mistakes and never recovered from going a goal behind. Hard to say how this would’ve gone if Digne hadn’t given away an amateurish pen. Either way, Spain outclassed them in midfield and this was never close once France went behind. Lucky for France, they get a mentally and physically beaten up opponent to say adieu to Deschamps with a win.

England did what England always do: take the lead and bottle it. My entire football timeline relitigated this match and Tuchel’s choices for two days afterwards. My humble short take: England weren’t as good as the press made them out to be in the first half. The match was a dead even foul festival with no chances at all. Argentina came out of the dressing room with more attacking intent, but England scored on the counter. Then they inexplicably dropped far too deep, even before Tuchel tried to do what worked against Mexico. His subs did maybe more damage mentally rather than tactically, given the players’ comments afterwards. But to me this looked mostly like a physical problem: England apparently had nothing left in the tank to defend higher and in a more proactive way. Like Klopp said, it’s easy to blame Tuchel with the benefit of hindsight. Anyway, I wonder whether the good chemistry between Tuchel and the players will survive this implosion.

I think neither side will be amped about the loser’s final, according to French sources and Tuchel himself. Still, the matchup is a good one for France. We can drop the stats for this one since both teams will probably rotate quite heavily. But France are the better side even with heavy rotation. This possible starting 11 would be a handful even for a fully rested, unrotated England:

France also come in with one more day’s rest and a lighter schedule over the previous seven matches. One player that will be motivated is Mbappé since he still plays for the Golden Boot and has a decent chance of overtaking Messi again.

I didn’t find reliable sources on England’s rotation, but I would still expect Kane to start, not so sure about Bellingham. Almost everyone else could be benched. I expect Rice to be dropped, we’ll see about the rest. England return to the Miami heat and humidity they played in against Norway, so I’d expect the starters that do not get rotated to be less than excited about it after their deflating defeat.

The loser’s final is traditionally loose and one of the highest-scoring games, surprisingly only beaten by the final itself:

Taking 1998 as a totally arbitrary cut-off, we had the following results:

• 2022: Croatia 2–1 Morocco (two surprise semifinalists, even matchup)

• 2018: Belgium 2–0 England (one surprise semifinalist, one deflated tournament favorite)

• 2014: Netherlands 3–0 Brazil (two deflated tournament favorites, one giga-deflated host coming off a historic 1-7 embarassment)

• 2010: Germany 3–2 Uruguay (one in-form team coming off a loss against the tournament favorite, one soft surprise semifinalist)

• 2006: Germany 3–1 Portugal (tournament host vs expectedly beaten semifinal underdog)

• 2002: Turkey 3–2 South Korea (surprise semifinalst vs tournament host)

• 1998: Croatia 2–1 Netherlands (surprise semifinalist vs deflated co-favorite)

The 2026 edition imo most closely resembles 2014, when the Netherlands, who were co-favorites after their 5-1 win over Spain and the 2010 final, beat Brazil, who came off the legendary 1-7 massacre against Germany. Almost all other editions featured either surprise semifinalists or tournament hosts — sides that still had some motivation to play for a win. 2002 was maybe the only one with a truly surprising winner. Belgium were 2.25 favorite to win in 2018. The Netherlands 3.6 underdog, but again, not a surprising result considering the circumstances.

I think neither side will be overly motivated, at least until they’re a good bit into the match. The conditions won’t help. Particularly for England, who I expect to be on heavier legs (depending on the extent of the rotation). There was a good bit more of dirty laundry being aired from the English locker room about Tuchel’s choices in the semi. France at least play their last match under Deschamps, so I’d expect them to be more proactive in this match, more than they would already be anyway.

I don’t like the over for the aforementioned reasons (conditions, motivation). This could be a good bit less open than other loser’s finals, unless we get a quick opener. But I ultimately think France’s quality will prevail. The odds should get a good bit more volatile until kickoff, but I’d make France 1.85 to win it.

Spain were clinical in their precise dismantling of the French offense in the semifinal. The first 20 minutes were very much like those of the other semi: a non-event. But they took their first chance from a foolishly conceded penalty and never looked in trouble afterwards. My only question at this point remains whether Spain can come from a goal down when they really need to find a goal. They still weren’t incisive against France, but they didn’t need to be. I thought France could rally from a goal behind, but that was dead wrong. For what it’s worth, Spain should not even have to answer this question if they continue playing as they have been.

Argentina came through a rather exciting second half by staging yet another Messi-boosted comeback. The first half was mostly a dud with no shots and only fouls. They conceded a goal rather against the run of play, but then Messi quite literally took over and set up several chances even before assisting the two goals for the deserved comeback in regulation. The last 30 minutes or so were among the best Argentina has looked in attack in this tournament, much aided by how deep England defended. It was a bit reminiscent of Tuchel losing 1-2 after a 1-0 lead with Bayern in the Bernabeu in 2024. As much as I dislike the non-stop fawning over Messi, credit where it’s due. He’s been terrific the entire tournament. Without him, I doubt Argentina would even have made the quarterfinal.

When we look at the stats, there is actually not a whole lot between those two teams. Spain creates a bit more, but Argentina converts a lot better, mostly thanks to Messi’s ridiculous 25% conversion rate. Spain is also better at the back, where Argentina underperforms due to their weaker players I’d say. There’s not a whole lot between them when it comes to possession.

• Spain: 1.79 non-penalty xG/match, -0.08 non-penalty goal vs xG/match underperformance, 0.10 xG/shot, 10.08% conversion rate.

• Argentina: 1.72 non-penalty xG/match, 0.86 non-penalty goal vs xG/match overperformance, 0.11 xG/shot, 16.51% conversion rate.

• Spain: 63.9% possession, 89.8% pass completion rate, 83.5% final third passes completed, 4.0 through balls, 9.0 passes per defensive action (= pressing proficiency), 0.31 non-pen xG, -0.16 goals conceded vs xG overperformance, 0.05 xG/shot.

• Argentina: 60.7% possession, 90.5% pass completion rate, 81.8% final third passes completed, 5.71 through balls, 10.7 passes per defensive action, 0.57 non-pen xG, 0.43 goals conceded vs xG underperformance, 0.07 xG/shot.

My armchair analysis says this match will be won or lost on the wings, and specifically, Argentina’s right wing vs Spain’s left wing:

Both teams are rather narrow and get most of their creative play either from their right wing or a through ball in the middle. Spain won the penalty in the semi through a long ball out to the right and scored the second with a brilliant comination and a darting run from their RB. Argentina’s right side is also their stronger wing, with Messi dropping often to the right to make runs inside (but not always as England found out).

I think Argentina will try to do the same in the final: get the ball to Messi, try to draw Ruiz and Laporte out of position and beat them on a run or win a set piece or open up space in the middle for Fernandez or Alvarez. If Spain can effectively restrain Argentina’s right side, there are no real other creative outlets. What’s more, Spain can try to attack down their nominally weaker left wing themselves and open up space for their much more dangerous right side with Yamal and Porro. Messi naturally doesn’t do much defensive work these days and Spain should look to exploit that by winning the ball in the opponent half and creating space for Ruiz to make a run or shoot from distance. I don’t think either will find much success in the middle of the pitch. Both teams are too secure in possession for that.

Yamal and Porro didn’t train with the team as a precaution but they will start. No absences for Argentina.

Spain are solid and deserved favorites, but I find it hard to make a case that odds should be higher than 60-40 to win it. I’d expect Argentina to run out of good luck and xG overperformance at this stage and Messi to face a defense that can choke off Argentina’s offense. But it’s still a final and as good as Spain are, I don’t quite think they’re 2008-2012 Spain great. Then again, even 2010s Spain won most of their matches 1-0 despite the legendary lineups:

Argentina look a bit like Djokovic making one deep, dramatic run to a slam final to pull off some GOAT feat, only to run into a younger and fitter opponent. They’ve had the much more difficult route to the final and have one day’s rest less — not significant but not nothing. Still, in terms of style there isn’t much between these two sides, so I’d expect both to struggle to find an opener from open play.

I’m a bit torn between whether this will be closer to the 2010 final against the Netherlands (1-0 a.e.t. when Spain were 2.1 favorite) or the 2012 EURO final against Italy (4-0 as 2.15 favorite after taking an early lead). Could we get an upset? Sure. If Argentina take a lead, preferably late rather than early, and Spain’s offense turns out to be as toothless when they’re desperate for a goal as the haters said after their first match. If Spain take the lead, I’d be supremely confident they win it in regulation.

One bet I like is Messi to win the Golden Ball at 1.12 on Rollbit (Polymarket lower now). This should be 1.05 at best. Messi has been the MVP of any side by a country mile and lifted Argentina almost single-handedly into the final. His impact is far greater than Modrić’s in 2018. Even if Rodri scored a brace to win it for Spain, I think Messi would and should get it. I also like Cubarsí to win the young player award. The Polymarket is quite illiquid, but I got some money down around 3. Rollbit has 2.5 on solid liquidity, which I think is decent but not a home-run. Yamal could win the final for Spain and would likely take the award in that case, but he’s been subdued thus far. This is maybe 55% Yamal for me at this point, with the caveat of the most important match to come.

On the match odds—I don’t consider the current odds insane value. Maybe a few ticks — Spain could come in to 2.2-2.25 for my liking. I’ll be riding out the most part of my Spain outright, but if I had to go adventurous, I’d go with Spain-1 at 3.8. If (and that’s unlikely) Spain take an early or first-half lead, this could turn into a repeat of 2012. I don’t think Argentina have the legs for another comeback. Their best bet is a goal in the second half or weathering the possession avalanche to win it on pens. But the most likely result imo is still a one-goal win for Spain.

That’s the last of my football previews for at least two years until EURO 2028. Hope at least some of you enjoyed. The World Cup is special, no matter how much FIFA shakes it down for money. I didn’t plan on watching almost every damn match, but I don’t regret I did.

The final should be special. A Finalissima between the reigning European and South American champions is a first, and this fixture is rare. I think it will be exciting, even though it probably won’t be anywhere near as spectacular as the 2022 final. Enjoy, we luckily only get them every four years. Vamos!