It's a very unfortunate time to be Pierre Poilievre

To begin, this piece is not concerned with whatever you think of the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. You do you, and roast him in the comments if you like. This piece is about an incredible sequence of bad luck, bad advice, bad messaging and bad timing that has resulted in one of the more hilarious turnarounds of political fortune I can remember.

At this time last year, as you well know, Poilievre was “Canada’s Next Prime Minister”—and not just in his own party’s messaging. It was also confirmed by all the polls everywhere, basically, that whenever an election was called, the Conservatives would win a majority, and Poilievre would indeed become PM. Everyone impacted by that result was already planning for it.

This is why, once the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement collapsed, Poilievre began pushing for an election with his every public statement, on every platform.

And then things…started getting a little weird.

First, the NDP continued to prop up the Liberal government, despite ending the agreement, which is one of the more hilariously weak decisions made by Jagmeet Singh in a career of them. But hey, the NDP was broke, so ok, sure.

Then, Donald Trump won the US election. And at first glance this was seen by some as a great sign for Poilievre. After all, the resurgent right was capturing elections around the world! Trump was on his side! Both of them were united (along with much of the Canadian electorate!) in their hatred of Justin Trudeau.

Poilievre’s rhetoric was not far off from Trump’s of course, which the Liberal party had long been hoping would eventually be seen by Canadians as disqualifying. Still, at the time, it must have seemed like he was riding the right wave. Hence, you got clips from QP that must have seemed pretty innocuous at the time — referring to Ukraine as a “far away foreign land” —but don’t, uh, look so good now.

And please remember, none of this mattered at the time. Back in December, Conservatives could drop like 15 points in the polls and still easily win. All the “Canada is broken” messaging had worked. “Axe The Tax” was a winning slogan for a “Carbon tax election”. The “Canada first” foreign policy was … fine by voters who were indeed focused on their own pockets. Relentless ripping on a hated Prime Minister was right in line with where a lot of Canada was at.

Poilievre and the Conservatives had defined the terms of the next election, on favourable ground against an unpopular opponent, and with global political momentum on their side.

Again — I don’t care if you like him or hate him, but it’s hilarious that this was less than 100 days ago. Fate is funny, man.

Then Trudeau resigned. Leading to another long delay before any possible election, which would then be against a new Liberal opponent.

Soon, Trump would turn on Canada with tariffs that would promise to decimate the economy. And, beyond that, he began talking about making us the 51st state. It takes a lot to get Canadians—who are, beyond social media, pretty devotedly politically apathetic—really, really angry. This did it.

And before the CPC could switch its messaging, which probably took a lot of discussion and polling and consultants and whatnot, a creature of pure political instinct grabbed the obvious spot as Captain Canada—that would be Doug Ford of course, who probably never discussed the nuances of the strategy with anyone beyond telling them to get him a hat.

Ford then used his renewed popularity to call an Ontario election, which took place before a new federal Liberal leader had been chosen, was won handily by the PCs and probably sapped a lot of the energy and gumption from the army of Conservative staffers and volunteers who will also be needed in Ontario for the next federal campaign.

Soooo…not great. Impossible to imagine 100 days ago, maybe, but not great for Poilievre. Or for the world, I should mention. None of this is good for the world, but if I don’t laugh I’ll cry.

Now here’s the final kick in the teeth. With Ford owning the economic protectionist lane, no Trudeau to run against, and a renewed commitment from the world to protect Ukraine and see the American administration as Russia-aligned…rather than a “far away foreign land”, Poilievre has to stand up, for both a Canada that is “united” rather than “broken” and for a world that stands with Ukraine against Putin (and Trump). And because of who he’s spent the past few years courting, this is what happens when he does:

If you have a few minutes, take a trip through the replies to that tweet. They’re a perfect example of just how badly the past few months have utterly screwed the next would-be PM.

He very well may still win the next election. If it were held today, he’d likely lead a minority government. But hooo boy, this man had it all laid out in front of him, and then the universe just said … “naaaah”.

Now, if you would like to make the point that perhaps had he taken real positions that were designed with values and governance in mind, rather than just spouting whatever it seemed would stoke the fire burning under the feet of his opponents … well, like I said, this piece is not about concerned with whatever you think of Pierre Poilievre. But you might have a decent point.

Anyway, it’s just funny.