Reading · Intrep360 with Sweet & Toth

Jonathan Sweet, INTREP360 WITH SWEET & TOTH, Mark Toth · Intrep360 with Sweet & Toth

August 27th, 2026

Greetings!

We’re at Day 181 of the war – or whatever you want to call it – with the Islamic State of Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is still an obstacle.

When asked today on Cairo’s Al Qahera News Channel about who actually controlled the Strait, my answer was U.S. Central Command.

I based my answer on the U.S. Army Field Manual No. 1-02.1 Operational Terms definition of control:

1. The regulation of forces and warfighting functions to accomplish the mission in accordance with the commander’s intent. (ADP 6-0)
2. (Army) A tactical mission task in which a unit maintains physical influence over an assigned area. (FM 3-90)
3. An action taken to eliminate a hazard or to reduce its risk. (ATP 5-19)

On Tuesday President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:

“I have just been informed by the United States Navy that all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed. Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the Strait ... There is a Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect.”

According to Axios, the U.S. military established a shipping corridor in and out of the Strait of Hormuz several weeks ago. 15 – 20 tankers enter and exit the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman “based on U.S. military guidance” with U.S. Air Force fighter jets providing protection against Iranian cruise missiles and drones.

The result? About 10 million barrels of oil a day — roughly half the pre-war volume — have been transported out of the strait and injected into the global energy market.

√ Regulation of forces
√ Tactical mission
√ Eliminate a hazard or reduce its risk
√ Control

According to one U.S. official, “We have been controlling the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz for two months now. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) can be a nuisance, but they don’t control the strait.”

But they don’t have to – they just need to influence operations in the Strait asymmetrically via drones, mines, and speed boats. Just the threat of action is enough for many shipping companies – and their insurers – to stay out of the Strait, even with a U.S. escort.

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AND THAT’S EXACTLY HOW THEY RESPONDED

FOX News reported this afternoon that Iran attacked another vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

Watch the video here: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6404151777112

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre said it received a report of a tanker being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was “hit by an unknown projectile causing fire to the vessel which has since been extinguished.” There were no reported casualties or environmental damage.

There have been no reports concerning retaliatory strikes – or any reports coming out of CENTCOM lately for that matter. Their last Public Release was on August 15th.

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A SHIFT IN U.S. TACTICS

Photo Credit: Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with counterparts of allied countries about the Iran war.

Axios reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told several of his foreign counterparts in recent days that “for the time being” the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran. Instead, he said the focus would be on “other means” of pressure – likely Operation Economic Outcast that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled on Monday.

The economic instrument of national power would take lead, with the military and diplomatic instruments playing supporting roles. Rubio made it clear that the U.S. isn’t planning a return to major combat operations, but didn’t rule out strikes if Iran attacked first.

Bessent described the operation as “an economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe. Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.”

The U.S. naval blockade is depriving Iran critical revenue.

The rial dropped to 2.02 million to the U.S. dollar when trading opened Monday morning. Today it closed at 2.022 million.

The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that “Iran’s inflation rate surged for the eighteenth consecutive month, with point-to-point inflation reaching 84.4 percent in August.”

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott told Axios that “The Iranian economy is in free fall … and we are cutting off every financial lifeline the regime has remaining.”

According to another U.S. official, “Right now we are not negotiating with Iran. We are squeezing them. The pressure could drive the Iranians back to the table.”

The Iranian economy is starting to look like December 2025. As we questioned this morning in our National Security column in The Hill, “By recreating deplorable economic conditions in Iran similar to those in January 2026, is the intent to incite an uprising to overthrow the regime?

That is one course of action – and probably the best outcome for the Iranian people and their Gulf State neighbors.

The mathematic equation to the shift in tactics has become: (S)anctions + (B)lockade + (T)ime = X. With X being the unknown – bring Iran back to the negotiation table, unconditional surrender, an Iranian revolution, regime change, or other.

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BUT IRAN GETS A VOTE

Last week, Chinese Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said “all relevant parties [need] to take responsible measures and resolve the problem through political and diplomatic means.”

Okay, but just who are the ‘relevant parties’ in Iran?

We count at least three:

1. The ‘hardliners’ – led by IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi, and assuming he is still alive, Supreme Leader Mojtaba ‘the hidden Imam’ Khamenei and his posse of Mullahs. For them, its still death to America and Israel. There is no room for compromise on the Strait, enriched uranium, or support to their proxies.
2. The ‘moderates’ – led by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They prefer a negotiated solution with the U.S.
3. The ‘Iranian people’ – there are no visible leaders in the country; however, exiled former Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi is prepared to return to Persia and establish a pro-western government.

For now – the hardliners are running the show, and Trump is prepared to wait them out exercising the Economic instrument of power.

Like it or not, THE 2nd and 3rd order effect of his objectives for Operation Epic Fury – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – will be his legacy.

Meanwhile, the regime hardliners continue to resist while they negotiate with Oman on a framework that would establish a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz - with conditions.

But a shipping route through the Strait already exists – and it’s controlled by CENTCOM.

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CHANGES IN ATTITUDES

Jimmy Buffett’s 1977 hit song “Changes is Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes” captures how many are feeling right now:

It’s Those Changes In Latitudes, Changes In Attitudes
Nothing Remains Quite The Same
With All Of Our Running And All Or Our Cunning
If We Couldn’t Laugh, We Would All Go Insane

The beat goes on.

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ICYMI. Mark and I each made an appearance on Cairo’s Al Qahera News Channel today o discuss the current situation in the Persian Gulf:

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ICYMI #2. If you didn’t get a chance to read our Thursday National Security column in The Hill this morning, you can read it here.

Mark and I look at Operation Epic Outcast and ask the question – is this regime change by another means?

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ICYMI #3. Poland’s TVP World used portions of Mark’s interview concerning CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow in an article.

You can read it here: https://tvpworld.com/95046130/expert-cia-chiefs-moscow-trip-a-serious-message-to-putin

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