INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

August 14^th, 2026

Greetings!

On Wednesday, I headlined our bulletin that it was a small world. Today, as I circle the globe once again in this edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, I am realizing that it is getting a lot smaller and not in a good way.

Jon and I have long warned that ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022, that the world is at war. It is not Hollywood’s version, as we have often said; meaning no nukes, mushroom clouds and nightmare day after Doomsday scenarios.

Photo credit: The Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 13^th wearing a navy uniform while purportedly aboard the Guards missile cruiser Varyag, the flagship of the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Rather it is a global war against the West by a thousand cuts. This past week, as we head into the weekend, is a perfect example of how that is playing out.

Putin is playing games in the Kuril Islands in Japan. 50,000 plus American soldiers are tied down in the Middle East defending U.S. interests and allies, the Russians are continuing their hybrid war against Europe, and 50,000 North Korean forces are headed to Eastern Europe.

Let’s get started examining those stories and more as I take a 360-degree look around the world identifying threats.

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NORTH AMERICA

Earlier this week on Wednesday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order entitled Expanding Capabilities to Combat Transnational Cyber-Enabled Crime. Notably, it authorizes private U.S. companies to “carry out government-sponsored cyberattacks against foreign criminal hack groups.”

In effect, the order is weaponizing certain companies to fight back against cyberattacks under U.S. government supervision. They are allowed to “breach computer systems to conduct surveillance and manipulate or destroy digital or physical infrastructure.”

However, under its provisions, the U.S. companies are not allowed to target “foreign governments or [take] actions that result in the “loss of life” or “serious injury.” Ostensibly, the order allows American companies to ‘hack back.’ Previously, only U.S. intelligence agencies conducted these types of counter-operations against transnational criminal actors and organizations.

Given that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea all use ransomware to conceal ongoing espionage, disrupt critical sectors of the economy – as I pointed out Wednesday against U.S. water facilities – and scam billions of dollars from Americans, the risk is in acting fighting back they may in actuality be going one-on-one with a foreign country.

As the Insikt Group pointed out last October, ransomware has become a “state-sponsored weapon” of choice. Notably, the Kremlin has written the book on this. According to Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, Russian cyber criminals alarmingly “make up nearly half of [its] most wanted list.”

Rosie the Riveter helped the U.S. win World War II. Joey or Sally the hacker – working perhaps at Amazon or JP Morgan – may help win World War III.

***

Yesterday, Trump also imposed a 100% tariff on the import of drones and drone components. According to the White House, the move is designed to onshore drone production while “primarily target[ing] popular Chinese-made drones.”

There are carve outs for drones or parts manufactured in the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Taiwan. They will be subject to a 15% tariff, while United Kingdom imports will be hit with 10%.

Notably, there was no mention of Ukraine whose companies are rapidly reshaping the modern-day battlefield with their leading-edge drone technologies. The U.S. should be bending over backwards to get Ukraine’s drone expertise and not imposing 100% tariffs on it.

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CARIBBEAN

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Cuba on X that ‘ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE – to include military options.” He added that “Cuba would be wise to PAY ATTENTION to the willingness of President Trump to assert American strategic prerogatives, and their certainty is NO MATCH for the United States of America.”

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, as I noted here on Wednesday, may be quietly speaking to China while carrying a big stick; however, Hegseth – his boss – is taking the opposite approach and speaking loudly while threatening a big stick.

I find that strange. Tough words are needed for China. For Cuba and its decrepit army? Not so much.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Hegseth, speaking yesterday in Panama City, Panama, said that the Pentagon has authorized U.S. military ground operations against drug cartels operating in Latin America. Hegseth stated that newly elected Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella has invited the “United States to join the fight against narco-terrorism by authorizing joint military operations to destroy terrorists and terrorist networks.”

Photo credit: Matias Delacroix / AP. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth field questions at The Americas Counter Cartel Coalition in Panama City, Panama on August 12^th.

While Hegseth is finding willing partners in Bogotá and Argentina, Mexico is pushing back. After Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, said in March that “cartels that operate in [the Western] hemisphere are the ISIS and al-Qaeda of this hemisphere and must be treated just as ruthlessly,” Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of Mexico, made it clear that there will be no U.S. boots on the ground in her country.

Pointedly, she said, “The last time the United States came to Mexico with an intervention it took half the territory.” She was referring to the U.S. seizing the land that is now Texas, California, New Mexico, and Nevada.

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EUROPE

Earlier today, as part of Putin’s war against Western Europe, The New York Times reported how the Russian president in 2025 during a secret meeting designated 2026 as the year to cause the “collapse of NATO and the EU from within.” Interfering in Moldova’s referendum on joining the EU was intended by Moscow as the first blow.

As long-time readers might remember, Jon and I warned at The Hill less than three months after Putin invaded Ukraine that Russia – if its armies defeated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals – likely would be headed to Moldova, the tiny country situated between Ukraine and Romania.

According to the New York Times, to destroy NATO and the EU from the inside out, Western intelligence officials concur that Moldova is “central to this effort.” They added that, “In the hierarchy of Kremlin priorities, the Western intelligence officials say, conquering Ukraine is first, and taking control in Moldova is second.”

Fortunately, Moldova has its own ‘Iron Lady’ in the spirit of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has spearheaded her country’s efforts to join the EU as her top priority.

Photo credit: Daniel Mihailescu /Agence France-Presse. Moldovan President Maia Sandu in an undated photograph.

Despite Russian-organized “vote buying, cyberattacks, disinformation, and payments to Orthodox priests to promote anti-EU messages,” Sandu prevailed in the referendum that greenlighted her efforts for Moldova to join the EU.

Notably too, training for the Russian campaign extended beyond Russia. According to the report, pro-Russian Moldovans were also trained in Serbia and Bosnia. Putin’s tentacles still run deep into the Balkans.

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For now, officials in Italy and Bulgaria are claiming that signs point to accidents being responsible for two explosions at arms plants producing ammunition for Ukraine. That said, call me suspicious. Like my good friend Joe Lindsley said on X, “Two arms plants. Four days [apart]. Both tied to Ukraine.”

JP Lindsley | Journalist@JPLindsley

Two arms plants. Four days. Both tied to Ukraine. A massive explosion hit KNDS's military plant in Colleferro, outside Rome — a company that supplies Ukraine's defense forces and produces inside Ukraine. Four days earlier, the same kind of blast hit Emilian Gebrev's plant in

5:30 PM · Aug 14, 2026 · 20.7K Views

29 Replies · 369 Reposts · 720 Likes

That alone warrants deeper investigation. Especially given the vast number of Russian sabotage efforts that I detailed here on Wednesday.

***

Putin, however, is not just fighting Europe from within. He is also, as we have noted previously here, using forces from without to aid in his war against Ukraine. As Zelensky warned earlier this week, North Korea is preparing to send another 50,000 troops into Putin’s meatgrinder in the Donbas.

I raise it again because it may, in part, also explain Putin’s trip to the Kuril Islands which I will address below. Putin, in my view, is signaling his support to both North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping and their mutual grievances against Japan and its own ‘Iron Lady’ – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

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AFRICA

The ongoing civil war in Sudan is continuing to create acute food insecurity throughout the war-torn country. Much of the country is either in crisis or emergency status when it comes to food shortages, especially for refugees.

FEWS NET has an interactive map wherein you can examine the extent of food insecurity across the country.

Screenshot of FEWS NET interactive map. Map details the extent of food insecurity across war-torn Sudan.

I wanted to highlight this given a press release earlier today by the World Food Programme. They are urgently warning that “more than 650,000 refugees and asylum seekers in South Sudan risk losing further access to lifesaving food, nutrition and other assistance due to critical funding shortfalls.”

According to the agency, it has an “immediate” $37 million shortage and an “overall funding shortfall of $258 million for the remainder of 2026.” Any famine in Sudan, beyond the human suffering, would also create a refugee crisis in neighboring countries, including Egypt.

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MIDDLE EAST

Earlier today, Trump stated that he is getting ready to declare that the “Hormuz Strait [is] a territory of the United States.” He can try, however, given that it is an international waterway, he is not going to succeed.

Clearly, in my view, it was just rhetoric. Tehran was unimpressed.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on X that the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be seized by tweet, nor by aircraft carrier, nor by issuing an order, nor by an election speech.” He added that the strategic waters have always “been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian.” Likewise, his assertion runs counter to international law.

Essentially, it is a standoff. As I noted on Q News in Cairo, Egypt yesterday, no one fully controls the Strait of Hormuz at this point. The U.S. certainly dominates it; however, Iran is able to tactically check it.

***

My good friend Jason Brodsky penned a great piece today for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) detailing “Iran’s wartime military and security shakeup” in its Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and elsewhere.

Mohsen Rezaei was the biggest change. He replaced Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the secretary of the SNSC. It is not yet clear why Zolghadr was demoted to only a political adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Perhaps most significantly, as Brodsky points out, in 1988, Rezaei said that nuclear weapons are “among the necessities of modern war.” For now, Team Trump cannot even get the Strait of Hormuz fully open. It is hard to see how they are going to strike a nuclear deal with Iran now that Rezaei is the secretary and primary adviser to Khamenei.

If you have time, I urge you to read Brodsky’s UANI piece. To help keep track of who is who, I am including a screenshot of a SNSC chart created by Iran International.

Chart credit: Iran International. Chart showing the members of the Supreme National Security Council.

My net takeaway? Despite Trump’s repeated claims of achieving regime change in Iran, while faces have changed, the regime itself is as hardline as it ever was, if not arguably, even more hardline now as a result.

***

INDO-PACIFIC

Yesterday, Putin showed up in the Kuril Islands. During the final days of World War II, Soviet forces seized the four islands – Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, Habomai – and have occupied them ever since.

Tokyo, correctly in my view, maintains that under international law, the islands – which are known as the Northern Territories in Japan – are sovereign Japanese territory. Takaichi stated on X that Putin’s visit was “absolutely unacceptable.”

高市早苗@takaichi_sanae

本日13日、ロシアのプーチン大統領が択捉島を訪問したと報告を受け、先程、公邸でぶら下がり記者会見を行いました。 2024年1月にプーチン大統領が北方領土を必ず訪問する旨述べて以来、日本政府としては、ロシア側に対し、大統領による北方領土訪問が行われないよう、累次申し入れてきました。

8:02 AM · Aug 13, 2026 · 10.3M Views

5.22K Replies · 13.9K Reposts · 99.1K Likes

Putin argues that Russia’s rights to the disputed islands stem from the Treaty of Peace that was signed on September 8^th, 1951. Pursuant to Chapter II, Article 2, Japan did relinquish all “right, title, and claim” to the Kuril islands; however, Russia did not sign the document nor did the treaty award Moscow the islands.

Japan maintains that the four islands in dispute were not and are not part of the Kuril Islands thereby rendering the Treaty of Peace irrelevant.

Beyond the dispute itself is the timing of Putin’s visit to Etorofu (which the Russians refer to as Iturup). He made the trip ahead of next month’s Duma elections which will take place between September 18^th and 20^th in Russia.

He cannot conquer Ukraine, so showing up in the Kuril Islands is somehow in his mind the next best thing. Quite the opposite, in my view, it makes Putin appear weaker than ever. Especially if you factor in China and North Korea.

Putin, as Jon and I argued in The Hill last week, is a cornered man in Ukraine. He needs Xi’s and Kim Jong-un’s help to continue his war. By traveling to Etorofu, Putin is poking Tokyo’s eye to benefit Beijing and Pyongyang.

My how the mighty have fallen. Putin, once the senior leader, has now become the Axis of Evil’s messenger boy.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE

I am scheduled to appear on TVP World tomorrow (Saturday) at 21:20 CET (3:20 PM ET) to discuss Putin’s visit to the Kuril Islands and more.

You can watch it here. The program will be in English.

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ICYMI #1

Yesterday, I appeared on Q News, the English-language network of Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt. We discussed who really controls the Strait of Hormuz given competing claims between Washington, D.C. and Tehran.

You can watch it here. Please note, this program was interrupted about halfway through due to breaking news. The network did not return to us.

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Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.