August 17th, 2026
Greetings! Hope everyone had a great weekend.
Photo Credit: Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images. A vehicle approaches a downed utility pole dangling above Mamalahoa Highway during Hurricane Lala near Ocean View, on Hawaii’s Big Island, on Aug. 15, 2026.
Our thoughts and prayers are with our friends on Hawaii’s Big Island who endured a direct strike from Hurricane LaLa on Saturday – and the rest of the island chain who experienced strong winds and substantial levels of rainfall and flooding.
Island life – you take the good with the bad. Preparation is key. Wishing our fellow islanders a speedy recovery!
It was another busy weekend in Asia and the Persian Gulf as well. It came from a different kind of storm though, as Trump Diplomacy raised its ugly head again. This time South Korea and Oman felt the wrath of “The Don.”
These types of emotional outbursts from the Commander-in-Chief are not helpful for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or the Commander’s of U.S. Central Command (Adm. Brad Cooper) and United Nations Command, Republic of Korea / U.S. Combined Forces Command and United States Forces Korea (Gen. Xavier Brunson).
***
SOUTH KOREA
Photo Credit: Kim Soo-hyeon/Reuters. U.S. soldiers take part in a U.S.-South Korea joint river-crossing exercise near the demilitarized zone separating South and North Korea in Yeoncheon, South Korea, on March 14, 2026.
Photo Credit: Kim Soo-hyeon/Reuters. U.S. soldiers take part in a U.S.-South Korea joint river-crossing exercise near the demilitarized zone separating South and North Korea in Yeoncheon, South Korea, on March 14, 2026.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump instructed the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea, citing the cost of the drills and Seoul’s refusal to take part in actions against Iran. But it was the “good relationship” part with Kim Jong Un that has many people scratching their heads.
On Truth Social the President stated:
“Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises! While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!”
Maybe someone should remind the President that this is the same Kim Jong Un who provides Russia with ballistic missiles to bomb Ukrainian cities and kill civilians. They also provide the Kremlin artillery rounds, 122mm D-74 howitzers, 107mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), 240mm MLRS, 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery systems, and soldiers to fight and die for Putin.
These soldiers, their equipment and weapon systems are being tested on the battlefields of Ukraine. That experience – for those who survive – and the lessons they learn will be brought back to North Korea.
Whatever “good relationship” the President thinks he has with Kim Jong Un is irrelevant. It cannot exist at the potential cost of a decades old alliance we have with South Korea, or any more innocent civilian lives in Ukraine.
The President should be demanding that Kim Jong Un withdraw his troops from Russia and stop providing the Kremlin with ballistic missiles instead of trying to punish South Korea for not supporting his actions in Iran.
The U.S. fought alongside our South Korean allies against a Communist North Korean army backed by China and the Soviet Union from June 25, 1950 to July 27, 1953. Over 36,000 Americans died defending South Korea. Our alliance is built upon the mutual defense of South Korea from another North Korean invasion – not the Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, the two countries are still at war. The war concluded with an armistice, not a permanent peace treaty.
Joint Exercises are essential to maintaining readiness, interoperability, confidence, and in-depth knowledge of battle plans. They are defensive – not offensive – there is nothing “inappropriate or hostile” about them. That is a North Korean narrative that the President should not be repeating.
***
OMAN
Earlier today, the President turned on Oman, warning officials against getting “in the way” of the U.S. during negotiations with their Iranian counterparts over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
He told Fox News’s Trey Yingst that “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the sh*t out of them.”
Just last week the President told Axios “We are low-keying it. We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”
He went on to say that the Islamice Republic of Iran “is in very bad shape” economically and has no money to pay its troops, and that the “U.S. naval blockade had exacerbated the Iranian regime’s economic crisis.”
So how is Oman getting in the way of U.S. negotiations? According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, “Iran is not holding direct negotiations with the U.S. and that it would not restart diplomatic talks until Washington agrees to certain conditions and stops violating the terms of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.”
According to Araghchi, Tehran is simply passing messages through intermediary countries – Pakistan and Qatar – but indicated that the conversations are not direct negotiations, adding that Iran’s separate discussions with Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz are in “final stages.”
That “final stage” came on Monday when Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters that the two Iran and Oman had reached “an understanding” regarding the “map of the transit route” in the strait.
Neither Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner nor Vice President J.D. Vance are even in the room. Iran chose to not give them a voice.
***
BACKDOOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE IRGC
Photo Credit: Ahsan Mohammed Ahmed Ahmed/Anadolu via Getty Images. Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani served as a backchannel to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Earlier today the President confirmed a report by Axios that the White House has been involved in backdoor negotiations with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through NechirvanBarzani – the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq – trying to reach a deal.
Interesting that they didn’t try to reach Iran’s “Hidden Imam” – the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
The administration finally came to the conclusion that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi “were not empowered to cut a deal and were being overruled by the IRGC” – the “different group” that Trump had mentioned before.
According to the Axios report, Barzani spoke directly with IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Vahidi on 14 May via an encrypted phone and that Vahidi said “I fully support them [Ghalibaf and Araghchi] and this is also the position of the IRGC. We prefer to solve this crisis through negotiations.”
Adding yet another layer of Iranian dysfunction. As Abbot and Castello would say, “Who’s on first? What’s on second. I don’t know is on third.”
Clear as mud – just like Iran wants it to be. And the White House continues to play by Iranian rules.
Middle East adviser Brett McGurk concluded that the issue is not the mediator; rather, “It’s Iran’s policy on the Strait, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.”
***
IRAN THREATENS TO ESCALATE IF US DOES NOT HONOR DEAL WITHIN WEEKS
Reuters reported this afternoon that Iran has threatened to “escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and beyond, and launch an attack if the U.S. fails to implement an interim peace deal fully in a matter of weeks.”
If the U.S. does not meet that deadline and diplomacy fails, Tehran will conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the U.S. naval blockade on the Islamic Republic.”
According to one Iranian official, “Tehran [is] shifting its policy from defense to offense as it was losing confidence in the merits of diplomacy with Washington. It is a proven fact that the U.S. is not serious about a ceasefire and won’t commit to any, so putting pressure on the enemy or relying on mediators in the hope of reaching a permanent ceasefire is not realistic.”
Oman is not the problem – like most every other issue in the region, it’s Iran.
As we said in our Thursday National Security column in The Hill:
“The pros of regime change outweigh the cons. When the regime is removed, Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear, ballistic missile and drone programs, support to proxies, threats to their Gulf State neighbors and their own citizens, and safe passage through the Strait can be resolved with the succeeding government.
Iran is the root cause of conflict throughout the Middle East. The White House needs to stop trying to negotiate with it.”
***
ICYMI. Mark and I had a pretty full weekend as well – conducting interviews with news outlets in Egypt, Poland and Pakistan.
***
Thank you for reading.
Hope to see you again tomorrow.
Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.