INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

August 11th, 2026

Aloha from Oahu!

Photo Credit: Ricardo Arduengo/Reuters. People fill containers with water at a distribution point during government-imposed water rationing amid a severe drought, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Aug. 7, 2026.

Plenty of rain here on these islands – not so much back home on my island of Puerto Rico though. Drought conditions have depleted water reservoirs to the point where the government is struggling to meet demand – imposing water restrictions of 48-hour rolling water supply shut offs and the rationing of water.

El Niño is putting a big hurt on the island.

Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s suspense to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give up their enriched uranium and nuclear weapon programs expired this time last week.

That’s right – last Tuesday. Seven days ago without any consequences.

President Donald Trump said U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) was “locked and loaded” to launch an operation against Iran that would have been the “biggest attack since World War II.”

He also told us this was Tehran’s “last chance” and that they faced “decapitation” if they didn’t make a deal.

But all Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander – and de facto leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran – now Maj. Gen. Ahmad Validi heard though was yada, yada, yada.

More empty threats aren’t going to work.

It’s starting to sound like the Three Little Pigs fable – a lot of huffing and puffing by the President (the big bad wolf), but the regime (the brick house) is still in place and Iran is now dictating conditions to reopen the Strait while Vahidi taunts the President by saying “Iran will continue working on nuclear weapons as long as the U.S. and Israel possess them … As long as the U.S. and Israel possess nuclear weapons, we will continue working on them for our national security … If they disarm, we will disarm.”

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AND THE WHITE HOUSE RESPONSE?

Underwhelming.

On Saturday, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, issued a statement laying out Iran’s requirements for reopening the strait:

1. Never threaten Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of this nation;

2. End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever;

3. Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran;

4. Pay the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran without any reduction or reduction;

5. Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation; and

6. Unconditionally release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people.

On Monday the President responded with another post on Truth Social:

I see that Representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran are asking for compensation for the damage done to them during the last five month Military Conflict (started because, THEY WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON), even though it was never mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings! But it is an interesting idea because now I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous, as led initially by General Soleimani, including the families of those killed on the USS Cole, and thousands of others killed in combat. Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years, not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last five months. I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations.

That’s likely to have zero impact on Iran’s decision making process; however, Adm. Brad Cooper’s visit to Israel to meet with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and other senior military officials didn’t go unnoticed. After their meeting, the CENTCOM Commander departed for the U.S. – likely to brief the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the President.

Was this messaging or final planning and coordination for the “biggest attack since World War II?” We’re going to have to wait and see – but don’t hold your breath.

On Sunday the President seemed to reverse course, telling Axios he is “low-keying it” when it comes to the war with Iran – “prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to mount” – as opposed to ordering a new military offensive.

A decision that mirrors a scene from a Seinfeld episode where George Costanza dramatically quits his job on a Friday by insulting his boss only to show up on Monday morning acting as if nothing happened.

“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money” adding that Iran “is in very bad shape” economically and has no money to pay its troops. The U.S. naval blockade has exacerbated the Iranian regime’s economic crisis.”

Passing messages through intermediary countries – not directly or semi-negotiating with them – is the way Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described it. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and Vice President J.D. Vance isn’t even in the room as Iran and Oman were negotiating on their ‘deal’ to reopen the Strait.

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MIRROR IMAGING

Mirror imaging is a cognitive bias that occurs when “individuals project their own beliefs, perspectives, and motivations onto others, assuming that they think and act in the same way. It involves assuming that others have the same values, desires, and decision-making processes as oneself, without considering the possibility of different cultural, social, or individual factors that may influence their behaviours.”

When combined with the Rational Actor theory – that “individuals are rational decision-makers who evaluate all of the information and options available to them to make choices” – bad conclusions and decisions can be made.

Retired U.S. Army General and Fox News Senior Strategic Analyst Jack Keane didn’t use those terms specifically Monday during his interview with Larry Kudlow on the Fox Business show – but did explain Iran’s decision making brilliantly.

As the General explains, Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic asset and they aren’t going to give it up willingly. He doesn’t believe – and neither do we – that Tehran is going to “bend to our will.” In their minds, they believe they have the upper hand – “bending the U.S. to their will by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.” And they are intent to drag this out with unacceptable conditions and possibly more attacks on shipping and their Gulf State neighbors in order to reopen the Strait, believing the midterm elections will force Trump’s hand.

Everything the President has said about the effectiveness of the U.S. blockade, Iran’s economic situation and the status of its conventional military is accurate – only it doesn’t have the effect Western minds (reasonable actors) want to assign to it.

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THE U.S. HAS COME TO A DEAD END

It’s worth saying again: Tehran is willing to take the beating.

The regime – the “different group” Trump refers to – isn’t threatened. They don’t care about their people – only the survival of the regime.

Diplomacy and economics don’t motivate them. It’s going to take a punch to the face.

Therefore the regime and its center of gravity – the IRGC – needs to be put in CENTCOM and Israel’s crosshairs … again. As we wrote on Friday, it’s time to implement a Plan C.

Take away Iran’s leverage – the Strait – and remove the regime.

And while Gen. Powell’s warning to President Bush remains valid –“if you break it, you own it” – this regime simply cannot remain in power.

The pros outweigh the cons. When this regime is removed, Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear, ballistic missile and drone programs, support to proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias in Iraq – threats to their Gulf State neighbors and their own citizens, and safe passage through the Strait can be resolved with a succeeding government.

The White House needs to acknowledge that this regime – led by Vahidi and legitimized by reports that their ‘Hidden Iman’ Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive – is the root cause of most of the issues in the Middle East and needs to stop trying to negotiate with it.

Finish the job.

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ICYMI. Neither one of us had any media engagements yesterday. Mark will be on Egypt’s Al Qahera News later this evening and will post in tomorrow’s INTREP360.

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Mahalo and thanks for reading!

We’ll see you tomorrow for another Hump Wednesday.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.