Strate𝔾 Update - Week 31 | Q3 | 2026

The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.

• MARKET PULSE

• BITCOIN

• ALTCOINS

• STOCKS

• FOREX

• SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)

Later today a lot of important economic figures will be released: the main Fed gauge for inflation (Core PCE) and the GDP Growth rate. The US economy remains in very good shape. Important is that the ISM PMI remains above 50, which reflects an expanding economy.

The input to the economy, oil, has now fully retraced the volatile upswing since the US-Iran war started, gearing up again. All-in-all oil remains in its consolidation range.

Extreme fear is cooling off as BTC goes sideways for a long period of time.

Long Term Holders are still holding and not capitulating. I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.

Bitcoin is struggling with the lower trendline through the weekly closes, similar to the COVID dip and the 2022 bear market bottom. From an Elliott Wave perspective the major count remains that a wave (5) is still written in the stars, targeting the upper trendline at +-$400k.

There’s no decisive push-through to the upside or to the downside just yet. Clearly some liquidity was grabbed below $60k first, followed by an attempt of BTC break the red horizontal resistance at $66k. It’s really boring, and stil undecisive.

The battle between the 2025 lows and the 2021/2024 highs is far from over. Bitcoin remains caught between these key support and resistance levels, while stronger performance in equities continues to tempt holders to rotate out of crypto. Megaphone patterns are perfect for adding fear, uncertainty, and doubt about whether a bull market is truly over — keeping traders on edge while the trend continues.

For now, this looks like a consolidation phase rather than the start of a broader macro trend shift.

On another hand, despite the recent weakness, long-term holders remain far from capitulation and almost back into Optimism (yellow).

The broader risk-on rally remains solid as well. With the Russell2000 back up and above the recent ATH-zone. In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.

The current BTC sell-off is also reflected in the chart w.r.t. money supply M1, retesting again the 7-year horizontal resistance (2017-2024).