"Global companies need strategies built for several futures at once"

“In today’s world, global business success belongs less to the companies that predict the future than to those that prepare for multiple futures.”

I made this point in previous posts and again on Thursday, August 6 when I spoke to the 200+ senior business executives at the Executive Next Practices ReINVENT Conference at the University of California, Irvine. My presentation was titled “Global Business: Never Been So Many Things Moving at Once.”

That is exactly what I see around the world today. For much of the past 70 years, companies could build an international strategy around a reasonably predictable base case. Estimate economic growth, currency movements, market demand, even geopolitical issues and costs. Build the plan. Adjust as circumstances changed.

That approach no longer works very well.

The problem is not simply that the world has become more uncertain. It is that several major forces affecting international business are moving at the same time and frequently in different directions.

Consider what an international company has to monitor today. At least six things are moving at once:

Tariffs and trade policy. Tariff rates and trade rules can change the economics of a market remarkably quickly. Companies are increasingly being forced to decide whether to absorb higher costs, pass them on to customers, restructure supply chains or reconsider markets altogether. New multi-country trade alliances.

Energy. LNG prices have demonstrated again in 2026 how quickly geopolitical events can alter energy costs. At the same time, substantial new LNG capacity could eventually push prices in the opposite direction. LNG imported into Asia countries runs the factories that produce the products they export to the US. Their costs impact consumers in the US.

Shipping and logistics. Overall container capacity may look manageable, while a geopolitical event, port disruption or congestion surcharge suddenly changes the economics of an individual trade lane. Like imported LNG, the cost of the containers that bring the Asian produced goods to the US impacts what US consumers pay.

Government economic policy. Slower trade growth, fiscal pressure and rising business insolvencies mean companies need to look beyond GDP growth. The financial health of local partners, suppliers and customers matters just as much.

Currencies and capital flows. Currency volatility can change margins on royalties, imported products, equipment and repatriated earnings faster than many companies can adjust prices.

Geopolitics. A disruption at a place such as the Strait of Hormuz can simultaneously affect energy, shipping, currencies, inflation and consumer confidence.

The important point is that these are not six separate risks. They interact. They stack. And that is where traditional international planning can break down.

Don’t Build One Forecast. Build Several Futures.

After more than five decades working internationally, I have learned to be very cautious about predictions. Currencies move suddenly, governments change policy, borders close, supply chains break and markets that looked highly attractive on paper turn out very differently in practice. The answer isn’t to become better at predicting which surprise comes next. The answer is to build a strategy that can survive being wrong.

For companies operating or expanding internationally, I recommend you consider six things:

1. Build three or four genuinely different scenarios.

Don’t simply create “optimistic,” “base” and “pessimistic” versions of the same forecast. Build different operating environments. What happens if tariffs rise but energy prices decline? What happens if currencies stabilize but shipping costs spike? What happens if economic growth remains strong but political relations deteriorate? Those are different futures. You need to be ready for any of these with a plan how you will respond.

2. Pressure-test any deal before signing it.

Run proposed investment levels, development schedules, royalties, supply-chain assumptions and contract terms through each scenario. A deal that only works if your base-case forecast is correct is a very fragile deal today.

3. Build flexibility into agreements that relate to doing global business.

Investment commitments over time, defined renegotiation mechanisms, currency provisions and clearly defined performance triggers can become extremely valuable when conditions change. Flexibility negotiated before the problem occurs is far easier than flexibility negotiated during a crisis. And have ‘robust’ Force Majeure clauses.

4. Identify which risks are connected.

Energy, shipping and currencies can move together. They can ‘stack’. Tariffs can alter sourcing, pricing and consumer demand simultaneously. Companies should understand where one event could hit their international business from several directions at once.

5. Make someone in your company responsible for watching the scenarios.

Scenario planning cannot be a presentation prepared when management approves international expansion and then put in a drawer. Someone needs to monitor which scenario appears to be emerging and tell management when assumptions need to change.

6. Revisit the scenarios regularly.

For an active international business, I recommend at least quarterly. The question should not be:

“Was our forecast right?”

It should be: “Which future appears to be developing — and what should we do about it now?”

The Advantage Goes to Companies That Are Ready

This is the real lesson for global business leaders in 2026 and probably going forward. Multiple futures are no longer simply a planning technique for dealing with uncertainty. They are the operating reality of international business. Companies that prepare for several plausible outcomes can move when circumstances change. Companies that bet everything on one prediction are forced to react. There is an important difference. The first company still has choices. The second company has surprises.

I have lived and worked as an operating executive in seven countries across the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, and have advised 40 companies across 12 business sectors in more than 30 countries. One thing that experience has taught me is that the future never arrives exactly as the spreadsheet predicted. The companies that succeed internationally aren’t necessarily the ones that predict it best. They are the ones that are ready when it arrives. This requires considering the impact of different futures up front so you are really to pivot when change occurs.

William “Bill” Edwards, CFE AFS, is founder and CEO of Edwards Global Services (EGS), an international market-entry and strategic advisory firm. Bill also serves as a Global Trade Advisor to companies and government organizations.

Sources

McKinsey Global Institute, “Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update,” March 2026.

Avalara, “Tariffs in 2026: How new trade rules impact your business,” 2026.

KPMG, “2026 Tariff Survey: A Year into Tariffs, U.S. Businesses Navigate Declining Margins,” March 30, 2026.

IEEFA, “Price volatility: A double-edged sword for the LNG industry,” 2026; Energy Connects, “The market outlook for gas and LNG in Asia,” June 2026.

Drewry, “World Container Index,” accessed August 6, 2026.

Suaid Global, “Ocean Freight Rates 2026: FCL & LCL by Route,” 2026.

Allianz Trade, “Global trade in 2026: navigating volatility,” 2026.

[Allianz Trade, “Global trade in 2026: navigating volatility,” 2026.

FinancialContent, “The Dollar’s Wild Ride: Inside the 2026 Currency Volatility Reshaping Global Trade,” February 2026.

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