Reading · Geopolitics Explained

Contents

Introduction
The United States and History
The United States and Business Deals
Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

The United States And Balkan Intervention - The United States became a decisive geopolitical actor in the Balkans through its involvement in the Bosnian and Kosovo Wars. From NATO intervention to Dayton, IFOR, and KFOR, U.S. influence shifted from military intervention towards peacekeeping and long-term security. Today, KFOR remains active in Kosovo, and the legacy of US intervention continues to shape the region.
Energy As Geopolitical Power - The United States is increasingly using economic and energy relationships to make moves across the Balkans. A $6 billion LNG agreement with Albania and the proposed Southern Interconnection pipeline between Bosnia and Croatia could reduce the region’s dependence on Russian energy. In the Balkans, can energy infrastructure create geopolitical influence for the United States?
United States Investment In The Balkans - U.S.-linked investment is also expanding into tourism, technology, infrastructure and real estate, from Jared Kushner’s Albanian developments to proposed AI infrastructure in Croatia. But recent protests surrounding the Albanian projects and opposition to the former Yugoslav Army headquarters development in Belgrade highlight that U.S. economic influence is not always welcomed. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions against Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS show how economic power can be weaponised to challenge Russian energy influence in the region.
A New Form Of Influence? - Based on these recent pursuits, the United States has seemingly moved from military intervention in the Balkans towards a broader combination of security, energy, investment and economic power. Whether these relationships develop into a deliberate strategy for expanded geopolitical influence remains uncertain. Also, other major powers could respond.

Introduction

Last Thursday, we discussed Kosovo and how domestic issues and relations with Serbia and Albania will affect its future trajectory.

However, there are further states to consider when it comes to the future direction of not only Kosovo, but the entire region of the Balkans.

Today, we’ll discuss how major geopolitical powers will drive changes in the Balkans, with a specific focus on the United States. How are recent pursuits driving change in the Balkans today, and where will these actions take the region in the coming decades? Let’s discuss below.

The United States And History

The recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and Iran, and considerations surrounding Greenland and Cuba, aren’t a new trend for the United States. Throughout history, the United States military has intervened in states around the world, and the Balkans are no exception.

The Bosnian War between 1992 and 1995 saw initial reluctance from the United States, but over time, they pushed more and more for a settlement.

In 1995, the United States got directly involved when NATO conducted airstrikes against Bosnian Serbs. The Dayton Peace Agreement then heavily involved the United States. In the aftermath, NATO deployed the Implementation Force (IFOR). IFOR was replaced by SFOR in 1996, but was ended in 2004. The EU then took over the stabilisation role through EUFOR Althea.

In 1999, the Kosovo War saw the United States involved once again. NATO conducted airstrikes, which led to Yugoslav forces withdrawing from Kosovo, and the creation of the Kosovo Force (KFOR). KFOR remains active today, with over 4000 troops from 31 countries present in Kosovo. In June 2026, NATO announced a gradual reduction of KFOR’s position since security in Kosovo had improved. If the security situation deteriorates, NATO has made it clear it will reverse the decision. But this does imply some of the more promising scenarios we discussed last Thursday could become reality.

Over these years, the United States went from limited military intervention in the Balkans to supporting peacekeeping and state-building. This has seen them remain somewhat influential in the region today. But is the United States today trying to turn this influence into economic influence, especially under the Trump Administration?

The United States and Business Deals

In the last few months, we’ve seen some economic developments in the Balkans.

The four examples are a $6B LNG agreement in Albania, the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline, Croatia’s nuclear energy projects and AI infrastructure, and recent development projects in Albania. Let’s break these developments down in more detail.

In April 2026, US LNG producer Venture Global signed an agreement with Albania’s Aktor LNG. This $6B deal will span a 20-year period, and it details U.S. LNG exports to Albania.

This begins to reduce the Balkans’ dependence on Russian energy sources. As such, this U.S. pursuit of economic and trade relationships has geopolitical consequences without the typical forms of direct geopolitical intervention that we’ve seen the United States is willing to pursue.

This also highlights how the Trump Administration wants to boost LNG exports. Ultimately, energy is life, and nations need energy to function in modern-day societies. Nations that are self-sufficient in energy have options. They can use their energy sources to protect themselves, or they can trade that energy and hope to establish trade relationships with others. This trade of energy can make other nations dependent on these energy sources if they rely on them too much. Nations on the other side of these relationships need to consider how they could be coerced if dependence grows too deep.

This is one thing that Trump has been doing during his Presidency. He has been seeking to boost U.S. resilience, both domestically via industrial buildout, and globally through trade and energy.

By some indicators, the United States is a declining superpower. Debt levels are skyrocketing, education quality is declining, and internal political tension is elevated. Trump’s moves here to boost resiliency are hence necessary.

Also on the energy front, we’ve seen the Southern Interconnection as a proposed gas pipeline connecting Bosnia and Herzegovina to Croatia’s gas infrastructure. This project is financially backed by the United States and is valued at above $1.5B. AAFS Infrastructure and Energy is the key investor and the project leader. Interestingly, AAFS is led by Jesse Binnall, who is a former Trump lawyer, and Joseph Flynn, who is the brother of a former Trump national security advisor. By connecting Bosnia to Croatia, one huge geopolitical consequence will once again be reduced Russian energy dependence for the Balkans.

The United States’ pursuit of gas infrastructure is opposed by some environmental groups in Europe, who argue that Bosnia has renewable energy potential. However, nations ultimately will rely on energy sources that they possess, or energy sources that are the cheapest. Nations also value reliable energy sources. Natural gas is more reliable than intermittent energy sources, despite the cleanliness of renewables.

Nations have different economic profiles, with developed nations pursuing renewables in a different position when compared to developing nations. Developing nations would need to be incentivised to pursue renewable sources; otherwise, cheap and reliable sources will be preferred. This could be contributing to this tension here.

The difference between the European energy vision and the American energy vision in Bosnia and Herzegovina is yet another area where the United States and Europe are pitted on opposite sides of a singular geopolitical issue in Bosnia. The appointment of a new High Representative in Bosnia is still splitting the Americans and the Europeans.

Croatia is also pursuing nuclear energy projects with the United States’ help, which further embeds American energy in the Balkans and undermines the Russians. Also, Croatian company Rade Koncar and U.S. company Pantheon Atlas signed a letter of intent for an AI data centre project valued at close to €50B. This could also mark the beginning of U.S. technological influence entering the Balkans via infrastructure buildout.

And then we see the recent activity of Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners. The Sazan Island and Zvernec development projects in Albania aren’t the only stories. In 2024, Affinity Global Development agreed to a 99-year lease of the former Yugoslav Army headquarters in Belgrade. The proposal was to turn this site into hotels, apartments, and offices, but Kushner’s company withdrew from the project in December 2025 due to tension surrounding the project. Both this Serbian project and the protests in Albania highlight that economic influence from the United States isn’t always accepted in the Balkans.

But the United States’ position as an economic superpower can also be weaponised. Serbia’s oil company NIS is majority owned by Russia’s Gazprom. As Serbia’s only oil refinery, it is pivotal to Serbia’s energy profile.

The United States sanctioned NIS in 2025 due to this Russian connection. This sees the United States attempting to reduce the Balkans’ energy connection to Russia even more, but this time, through sanctions.

In 2026, Hungary’s MOL company was negotiating to purchase the Russian stake, with a provisional agreement from January 2026 not yet finalised. The United States has continued to grant extensions for negotiations, likely hoping for this deal to grow into a successful purchase.

And so, some only see Trump as pursuing business deals to help his friends and family; but he is also pursuing energy, technology, infrastructure and economic projects in the Balkans for the United States. This is a pursuit that the Trump Administration has openly admitted to pursuing, hoping to expand influence in the region.

How will others respond to these moves made by the United States? It’s this that we’ll discuss on Thursday.

Concluding Remarks

The United States is making moves in the Balkans. Whether these strategies in energy, technology, and investment turn into pursuits of expanded geopolitical influence will be told with time. But, often, we see other nations respond to geopolitical moves, even if they wouldn’t lead to dramatic geopolitical shifts in isolation.

On this front, we’ll next discuss how Russia, Turkiye, and China influence the Balkans, and if they will make moves to support or rival the United States. From there, we’ll analyse how all of these nations will shape the future of the region. Keep an eye out for this discussion, which will be released on Thursday.

How Does The United States Influence The Balkans?

Comments