How Do Other Major Geopolitical Powers Influence The Balkans?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Russia In The Balkans

3. Turkiye In The Balkans

4. China In The Balkans

5. The Balkans Looking Forward

6. Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

• Russia’s Declining Influence - Russia’s energy and political influence in the Balkans is likely to weaken as Serbia and other states become increasingly connected to Europe. However, Russia can still support pro-Russian political actors, exploit Serbia-Kosovo tensions, and support Republika Srpska’s autonomy ambitions. Russia may therefore try to slow Western integration, even if its capacity to do so is constrained by the war in Ukraine.

• Türkiye’s Strategic Position - Türkiye has strong historical, cultural and geographical connections across the Balkans, but its immediate strategic focus remains the Middle East. Despite this, Türkiye can maintain relationships with the United States, EU and other emerging powers while acting as a strategic partner to Balkan states. This could give Türkiye an important role as the region becomes more connected.

• China’s Balkan Investment - China has expanded its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, including major investments in Piraeus and infrastructure across Serbia. These projects connect the Balkans to China’s wider European trade networks and provide alternative trade routes through a strategically important region. Unlike Russia, China is not necessarily responding to Western moves, but pursuing its own long-term economic and supply-chain interests.

• A Multipolar Balkans - The United States and European Union are unlikely to be direct rivals in the Balkans, although disagreements over issues such as Bosnia’s next High Representative and energy policy can create tensions. Instead, the region is likely to see European integration alongside U.S. security, energy and technological influence, while China, Türkiye and Russia remain relevant in the region to different extents, and for different reasons. Ultimately, the Balkan states themselves are also not passive actors, and the hope is that they could use this period of change to maximise their own strategic options.

Introduction

On Monday, we explored the United States’ role in the Balkans.

This is connected to NATO, which remains active in Kosovo via KFOR, and the EU, with many Balkan nations EU candidates for accession. The United States’ influence, the rise of Balkan states towards the EU, and a slow calming of tensions and fragmentation across the Balkans are trends I expect to see over the coming years, as we’ve established over the last few weeks in our discussions.

However, other geopolitical actors are relevant in the Balkans.

Today, we will discuss how Russia, Türkiye, and China are active in the Balkans, and whether these nations will affect the future direction of the Balkans, or if the United States, NATO, and the European Union will be the biggest geopolitical actors contributing to the region’s future direction. Let’s dive in below.