Some 800 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf by Iran’s closure of the Strait, and despite the terms of the ceasefire requiring it to be reopened, passage remains subject to logistical and safety considerations according to the IRGC.
Iran says that the Strait is not in international waters and therefore safe passage requires the goodwill of Iran and Oman. The new safe routes are within Iranian territorial waters enabling the IRGC to visually verify ship details. Iran has not ruled out charging a toll.
With the status of the ceasefire still unclear, shipping companies are likely to exit the Persian Gulf only when it is safe to do so, in order to use their vessels elsewhere in the world and are unlikely to return while the likelihood of the ceasefire breaking down remains high, meaning supply disruptions are likely to continue for some time.
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