Three Players I've Come Around On This Offseason

I think a hallmark of a good fantasy analyst or player is to not be too rigid in your stances. While it’s similarly important to take stands and be confident in what you’re saying/thinking/doing, being too rigid and not seeing both sides of the equation (how you can get burned) is a major flaw in analysis. It shows a lack of humility and nuance as a fantasy player to be so firm, and more so just a lacking understanding of the high-variance nature of fantasy football. Countless curveballs hit the fantasy landscape every year.

That all being said, and maybe only adjacent to today’s article, I wanted to take you guys through three players I’ve actively changed my mind on throughout the 2026 offseasons. Exercising that ability to adapt to new information, ADP changes, or even just ceding that I was missing the full picture on a player’s outlook

But before we hop into it, just a few notes about were you can find my other content, Discord access, and where the data I’m pulling is coming from…

Discord: If you want a place to talk fantasy with myself and others, get updates on articles and X posts, to get answers to questions you may have and more, join the subscribers Discord HERE.

Website: If you want to access my player rankings (best ball, redraft, dynasty, and rookies), my models (for rookies, year 2, and upcoming season fantasy points), dynasty tools (trade calculator and team analyzer), best ball tools (exposure tool), and my 2026 draft guide, click HERE to access my website which has all of that.

Data: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link.

Allen has gradually shifted downward in ADP throughout drafting season. His price has dropped from the early/middle round 3 to the back of the round, and he’s pretty consistently available in the beginning of round 4 (have drafted him in the middle of round 4 as well). In this range, Allen feels like a much more enticing pick, as the opportunity cost of drafting a QB here as opposed to an early-mid R3 pick is much less discouraging.

As a fantasy asset, Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 in fantasy points in EACH of the last SIX years.

In 2026, I think one of the major concerns that are shying people away from Allen are passing volume concerns. However, Allen has already dealt with near league low pass rates in the past three years (bottom 6 in each of these years). And the fantasy production hasn’t faltered as seen with his fantasy finishes above. You can also see it in the fantasy scoring by year:

• 2020: 24.8 FP/G

• 2021: 24.8 FP/G

• 2022: 26.1 FP/G

• 2023: 24.3 FP/G

• 2024: 24.2 FP/G

• 2025: 23.6 FP/G

A very slight drop in scoring with the coinciding dip in passing volume, but still top-of-position performance which resulted in Allen being a solid-to-very strong pick at cost in these recent seasons. Even in his worst season of the last six in 2025, he was still a top 30 player by wins above replacement (WAR).

The passing volume concerns are fair given Allen’s far and away QB1 ADP, but they’re probably overblown. Even with a 31st-in-NFL pass rate last year, Allen was still 9th in passing TDs and 11th in passing yards. We also know there’s room for much more should the pass rate climb some, given the outlier-level rates and an OC change in 2026 along with just Allen’s raw ability as a passer.

The rushing floor is also just so strong, with the goal line role he has AND in such a potent offense. Allen is one of just two QBs that’s accounted for greater than 40% of his teams inside the 5 rush rate since 2021, with the rest of the QB crop not even close to this mark. He’s also top 2 in rushing TDs in this time (54 total), and top 5 in rush YPG among QBs. The rushing role around the goal line has actually improved in these last few years despite Allen getting a bit older (relatively speaking) (largely due to more overall production from the offense), as Allen has tallied 12+ rushing TDs in EACH of the last 3 seasons!

I think some are more averse to Allen because he’s in a tier of his own price wise (although only a bit over a round above Lamar now on Underdog), but he’s rightfully in a tier of his own in my opinion. He’s the only QB without any real question marks on hitting QB1 overall upside (Lamar rushing decline, Daniels passing upside, Maye top-tier rushing + schedule getting harder, Burrow no rushing, etc). That’s not to say I don’t draft those other guys, particularly Maye and more so Daniels who I like a lot, but Allen is a different level of profile from these guys. And on that note, his ability to produce league-winning spike weeks is second to none:

I rounded up the top 3 scoring weeks of ALL QB seasons since 2023, and averaged them. Here are the results (top 5):

1. Josh Allen (2024): 41.5

2. Josh Allen (2025): 39.8

3. Josh Allen (2023): 35.1

4. Joe Burrow (2024): 34.8

5. Lamar Jackson (2024): 34.7

To clarify, this means Allen holds ALL THREE of the top ceiling game averages (avg. 3 highest FP scoring outputs in a given season) over the last 3 years, in seasons where his overall output is actually slightly declined from the prior couple of years. No QB in any individual season has matched even his lowest top 3 game average over the past 3 years.

Allen also has 6 of the top 12 overall single-game fantasy performances of the last three years, and 7 of the top 15. No other QB has more than one single performance in this range.

The combined passing upside given Allen’s ability and the potency of this offense, along with the near certain rushing production, gives Allen an unmatched ceiling/likelihood of hitting said ceiling.

Into round 4, I’ll start grabbing a lot more shares of Allen, who we’ve seen be one of the most valuable players in fantasy multiple times over the past half decade (by WAR). The opportunity cost in this range becomes a lot less worrisome when you’re drafting him over the Tet, Javonte, or Kyren types as opposed to the Rashee, Olave, Devonta range, in my opinion.

And last thing to note, this is much more of a best ball take than a redraft one, as his late round 2 ADP in redraft is way too rich for me. If you can get him late round 3 in your redraft league, that’s a move I’m willing to make.