Deciding Between The Running Backs At The 1-2 Turn

Today, we’re going to go through each RB profile that sits at roughly the 1-2 turn, expanding this “turn” phrasing a bit from the back half of round 1 into the middle of round 2. That leaves us with nine (9) names to talk through, listed here below in ADP order (using half ppr redraft ADP from FantasyPros real-time ADP tool):

• Jonathan Taylor (6.9)

• James Cook (9.1)

• Saquon Barkley (11.9)

• Ashton Jeanty (13.4)

• De’Von Achane (15.5)

• Omarion Hampton (15.6)

• Kenneth Walker (15.8)

• Chase Brown (16.0)

• Derrick Henry (18.7)

I’ve heard many say that getting these names right will be possibly the biggest decision in fantasy drafts this year, and while I think that point is a bit vague, it is inherently true that these decisions will make-or-break drafters slotted in the back half of the 1st round.

So, what I’m going to do for each of these guys is put together a (relatively) quick write-up on my thoughts on them and their outlook for 2026. Then I’ll close out with how I’m handling them this year at their respective costs with a “Verdict” line at the bottom of the write-up.

Before we hop into it, just a few notes about were you can find my other content, Discord access, and where the data I’m pulling is coming from…

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Data: You will see several basic and advanced stats throughout this article, most of which have been pulled from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. You can check out their comprehensive data suite by clicking that link.

RB4, 6.9 ADP

Taylor is a really tough guy for me to get behind in 2026 at his much more expensive mid-round 1 price, as opposed to late round 2 ADP last year. Yes, he had an incredible 2025, but things broke perfectly for him and a lot of the same 2025 concerns still somewhat prevail in 2026. I actually already wrote a separate article on why I’m fading Taylor again in 2026, which you can check out here. But to give you the super short version of that, I’m of the opinion that 2025 was the perfect runout for him. The main driver of that runout was the offensive environment, which was expected to be near the bottom of the league (26th in implied PPG) but ended up being a top 2 unit for the majority of the year. Not only would that be a massive boost for any RB, but particularly for Taylor who is one of the most game script-dependent RB s in all of fantasy (led all RBs in FP differential in wins vs. losses).

In 2026, I have a lot more concerns about this offense dropping off substantially, with Jones’ achilles issue being the primary driver of that as well as a much declined receiver core (Pittman gone, Pierce hobbled). I also have concerns of Taylor’s chronic ankle issue flaring up (3 straight years of high ankle issue from 2022-2024) with another year and another 369 touches under his belt, although that may be a little more nitpicky. Not only do the concerns from pre-2025 still loom, but you have to pay a substantially greater price in 2026, as Taylor has jumped from a later round 2 to mid-round 1 pick.

VERDICT: He’s a hard fade in the middle of the 1st round, in all formats.

RB5, 9.1 ADP

Cook’s ADP is a little pricier in redraft as opposed to best ball drafts, but I have hard time being actively bearish on Cook despite that. I understand the downside cases in terms of the lacking receiving volume for an RB going this early in drafts, as it theoretically limits him from true RB1 overall upside.

However, starting with that receiving work, there’s reason to be optimistic that Cook’s role in this area could get notably larger in 2026 (similar to his 2023 season with 54 tgts, 445 rec yds, and 4 rec TDs). New OC Pete Carmichael has a long history of heavily involving his RBs in the pass game, working with notoriously heavy RB-targeting coach Sean Payton in 19 of his last 20 seasons. There’s been tons of buzz in camp on the Bills RBs seeing more passing game work as a whole. And an ode to Ben Gretch’s piece on RB air yards, James Cook has finished top 15 among RBs in air yards in each of the last 3 years, finishing as 2nd among all RBs in 2023. Furthermore, as a collective, Allen has finished top 2 in targeted RB air yards in 2 of the last 3 seasons (top 12 in all 3). Point being, the receiving volume might not have to be quite as high as other RBs for Cook to smash there, if he gets some more targets and retains the more downfield role here in comparison to other RBs. Bigger plays downfield = less receptions needed for high-end receiving production.

On top of that, I think the raw rushing volume and upside for production in that regard in such a potent/explosive offense is probably still somewhat underrated. Even with a modest receiving role, Cook has finished inside the top 8 RBs by FP/G in each of the last 2 years. He won the rushing title in 2025, and has totaled 14 or more TDs in each of the last 2 seasons (18, than 14). He’s apart of this uniquely high-ceiling Bills offense as well. The Bills by far lead the NFL in % of games above 30 points in the last 2 years, at 61.8% of their total games while only one other team sits above 50%. They’re also, with the Lions, in a tier of their own in terms of just average PPG over this time (both 29+, next closest team sitting at 27.7 PPG). When an RB is a bit more reliant on the run game, it helps when they are very live to lead the NFL in both rushing/TDs AND naturally have high-end spike weeks on that rushing/TD production alone, which are aided both by Cook’s explosive run ability and even more so the offensive environment.

All the above considered, Cook is still a bit flimsier of a profile in round 1, likely without a high-end receiving role and a QB can eat up a bunch of rushing TDs. The offense likely has to remain top-of-NFL with outlier rushing production for Cook to be a big hit here. And ideally, receiving volume improves as well, but that’s another “if”.

That being said, any of these RBs outside the top 3 will require some outlier to occur to reach RB1 overall status. Cook’s path to returning a league-winning season at this cost very much exists, I think more so than the aforementioned Taylor and similarly so to anyone else in this range.

VERDICT: I think Cook is a solid pick in late round 1 and the conversation can start at 1.08 (all of the top 7 are clearly above for me, and I have one RB below here ahead of him in my ranks), but I’m not reaching any higher for him. Full PPR and/or 3 starting WR slots would likely have me taking Jefferson/Lamb over him as well.

RB6, 11.9 ADP