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High Stakes Fantasy Baseball/Football Analyst · Aug 22, 2026

2026 Fantasy Football: Undervalued & Unstoppable: Constructing the Perfect Value Team

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Shawn Childs · High Stakes Fantasy Baseball/Football Analyst

Winning in fantasy football requires finding edge players, staying healthy, and finding value options in each draft. Each fantasy format has a different draft flow, and each cast of drafters will have a different view of the player pool and their team builds. Here’s a look at my list of top value players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end:

Over the past week in the National Fantasy Football Championship Primetime event (five drafts), Murray is the 18th quarterback off the board with an ADP of 162 (min: 151 and max: 171). His early price point in drafts this summer was partly due to some of the fantasy market wanting confirmation of him winning the Vikings’ starting quarterback job.

Murray has the services of a top-10 wide receiver (Justin Jefferson), who has the talent and ceiling of the best wideout in the game. Jordan Addison brings big-play and scoring upside, while Jauan Jennings has flashed a much improved floor over the past two seasons, along with the ability to post elite games at times when game flow breaks his way. A healthy T.J. Hockenson gives Kyler a proven checkdown option to move the chains, and Murray looked for the tight end position many times over a couple of seasons in Arizona, thanks to the amazing success of Trey McBride.

Throw in a reason rushing floor, and the Vikings’ new starting quarterback has an exciting opportunity to post his best fantasy football year since his sophomore campaign in the NFL (4,790 combined yards and 37 touchdowns). The Vikings’ coaching staff wants to throw the ball, but Murray’s offensive line has to be much better than in 2025 (60 sacks allowed).

I have him ranked sixth at quarterback, which gives me a flashing green light to target him as an upside QB2 in my fantasy leagues. The folks over at Fulltime Fantasy have Murray listed as their comeback player of the year. I placed him in the value category, but he should really be in the mix for a top breakout player in 2026 despite his seven seasons of experience in the NFL. His first hurdle is staying healthy for 17 games (27 missed starts over the past four years).

Two seasons into his NFL career, Nix finished eighth (367.45) and seventh (357.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. His rookie season ended with a luster down the stretch (22 touchdowns across nine starts while averaging 23.82 FPPG). He led all quarterbacks in passing attempts (612) last year, and Denver added another talented wide receiver (Jaylen Waddle) in the offseason. Nix has 63 combined touchdowns over his first 34 games in the NFL.

Despite his winning expected floor in fantasy points in 2026, he gets a knock for gaining 6.7 and 6.4 yards per pass attempt over his first two years, while also posting an uninspiring finish to 2025 over his final eight starts in the regular season (one passing touchdown or fewer than in seven games), despite passing for over 300 yards in three matchups.

As the 14th-ranked quarterback in the NFFC in the third week of August, Nix already has backed value in his ADP. The Broncos’ receiving corps is four deep at wide receiver, and Evan Engram has enough experience to be more active in 2026. His recent resume is more proven than Kyler Murray’s, putting him in the cheat QB1 category if draft flow doesn’t break right to land another quarterback before him. He scored 20.00 fantasy points or more in half of his starts over the past two seasons, giving him a 50% floor rating and some micromanaging at times.

Barkley comes into 2026 with a “Last Year’s Fantasy Bum” tag. He was an absolute beast two years ago when Barkley could have broken the NFL record for most rushing yards if he didn’t sit out Week 18. His final day off allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to pass him in PPR fantasy points (364.90 to 351.30).

In one easy season, Barkley went from 2,283 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 33 catches to 1,413 combined yards with nine scores and 37 receptions, or a drop of 119.00 PPR fantasy points. As a result, he draws a second-round ADP (19) in the high-stakes market, ranging between 15 and 24 across five Primetime drafts in the NFFC in the middle of August.

Based on his ceiling and floor, Barkey appears to be the running back value or tier dropoff in the second round. I’d love to see a few more catches to help his consistency factor, while Jalen Hurts will continue to snipe rushing scores. I expect the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator to rely heavily on their star running back in 2026.

Based on my early projections, I’m living on an island with my outlook for Harvey this year. Over the past week in the National Fantasy Football Championship, his ADP (93 – min: 80 and max: 98) ranks him 36th at running back, one draft slot behind the often-injured J.K. Dobbins.

The 2026 fantasy market is also intrigued by the direction of Johan Coleman, whose ADP (122, with a range between 109 and 128) has risen in August. I’ve been stating all summer that it is imperative that if I land Harvey (who I will fight for in front of his ADP), I must handcuff him with Coleman. This opinion is more of a bet against Dobbins while also offering protection for my investment.

Last year, Harvey ranked 19th in PPR fantasy points (12.27) despite only being on the field for 43.9% of the Broncos’ plays. He averaged 8.6 rushing attempts and 2.8 catches per game. His ability to score (12 TDs) and reasonable floor in catches (47) allowed him to score over 15.00 PPR fantasy points in seven matchups.

Sean Payton has a history of featuring his running backs in the passing game in New Orleans, suggesting more catches for their backs in 2026 (87/616/5 on 118 targets last year). In the last update of my projections, I have Harvey having 24 rushing attempts more than last season, along with eight catches, while repeating his value in scoring (12 touchdowns).

In essence, I upped his opportunity by about 15%. He brings speed to the table, but Harvey must make bigger overall plays in the run game (only 3.7 yards per carry). Denver has a top-rated offensive line that underperformed expectations last year in the run game. In the end, Harvey is mispriced this summer if he can stay on the field for 17 games. In the old days of the World Championship of Fantasy Football, pass-catching backs offered sneaky playable value. I see this with Harvey in 2026.

Moving to Buffalo should be a big win for Moore in 2026, and I identified him as value at wide receiver early on based on his early ADP (49 on 7/17) in the NFFC. With each passing set of ADPs I’ve run for the National Fantasy Football Championship, he has moved up draft boards at every stop. Unfortunately, his last ADP (36, with a min: 35 and a max: 36) puts him in a backend WR2 conversation now, compared to a mid-tier WR3 over a month ago.

In the end, Moore now plays with the top-drafted quarterback in fantasy, and he has the tools to help Buffalo regain some of the lost recent momentum in the passing game. Allen will get him the ball downfield, and Moore has the resume to move the chains close to the line of scrimmage. His best season came with Justin Fields (96/1,385/9) in 2023, which seems attainable in a much higher-scoring offense. Only five wideouts beat him in fantasy points that season.

I expect Moore to still be a value in home leagues, and the bet here is on Allen and Buffalo’s ability to score more touchdowns. I can’t dismiss a WR1 outcome, so keep an open mind about his ceiling.

Reed has lost fantasy momentum to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden this fantasy draft season despite opening his NFL career with two productive seasons (64/912/10 and 55/1,020/7). A foot injury last August put him on a diminished path, followed by a Week 1 shoulder injury crushing his fantasy value.

When at his best in 2023 and 2024, Green Bay gave Reed only 5.1 targets per game, along with 31 rushing attempts. He’s gained 20 yards or more on 24.3% of his touches over this span, but he did have eight drops in 2024 while still maintaining a high catch rate (73.3%).

This draft season in the high-stakes market, Reed comes off the board as a mid-tier WR4, which is well below his ranking in 2023 (215.20 – 25th) and 2024 (199.00 – 29th) in PPR fantasy points. He brings big-play and scoring upside, with the bonus of some rushing attempts. His resume and potential fit well with his more favorable price point this year. The emergence of TE Tucker Kraft in 2025 also adds a fourth wheel in the Packers’ target rotation this year.

Playing on the opposite side of Justin Jefferson created an explosive opportunity for Addison across his first two years in the NFL (70/913/10 and 63/895/10 – two missed games). His ability to score and make big plays gave fantasy teams an explosive WR3 or WR4 over this span, depending on team builds.

His demise last year was quarterback-related, along with self-inflicted, due to his three-game suspension at the start of the year. His success in his rookie season was helped by Minnesota ranking fourth in passing attempts (631) and second in completions (424). The Vikings threw the ball 83 fewer times in 2024 (548), followed by only 484 pass attempts last season.

The addition of Kyler Murray should improve Minnesota’s ability to pass, but his running value suggests closer to the league average in pass attempts. A healthy T.J. Hockenson and the addition of Jauan Jennings add more competition for looks, but Addison should also see plenty of single coverage.

He brings a WR2 profile and ceiling, but his opportunity this year may be more in the WR3 range, which still leaves some value in his ADP (WR50 in mid-August, with a range between 93 and 108 in the NFFC). I see a half dozen wideouts drafted ahead of him that have unproven resumes.

It’s hard to believe that 24 tight ends are being drafted in front of Hockenson in mid-August in the National Fantasy Football Championship. In 2023, he was the second-best fantasy tight end (95/960/5 on 127 targets), helped by him playing in a high-volume passing offense.

Over his last 85 games, Hockenson averaged 4.7 catches for 48 yards and 0.28 touchdowns, which comes to 11.18 PPR fantasy points per game. This output over the past four seasons would rank 4th, 7th, 6th, and 5th in PPR scoring if he played 17 games.

Hockenson’s demise last year was tied to poor quarterback play while coming off a significant injury (torn ACL in his right knee in 2024). His past resume screams value at the TE2 position. His scoring option is limited, but Kyler Murray will give him plenty of short catches to pad his stats.

My most over-protected team in the NFL last year was the Minnesota Vikings, and this year’s drafter have reflected their offensive failure by weighing too much on last year’s problems rather than gauging their potential in 2026. Minnesota plays the Lions and Commanders at home in Weeks 15 and 16, followed by a road matchup against the Jets in Week 17. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of more Vikings players on an overall winning roster in 2026.

Read the original on fantasyanalyst.substack.com

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