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Escalation Trap · Aug 12, 2026

A New Benefit for Founding Members

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Prof Robert Pape · Escalation Trap

When I launched our Substack, many of you took a chance on this project before there was any guarantee of where it would go.

You were among the readers who helped make it possible for me to build something different: a publication focused not simply on what is happening in the world, but on understanding the strategic forces driving what happens next.

I want to recognize that support with a new Founding Member Benefit Package.

Beginning now, Founding Members will receive:

• Live Briefing Intelligence Decks
After each of my Live Briefings, Founding Members will receive a copy of the slide deck, including the maps, analytical frameworks, key arguments, and forecasts presented during the briefing. These decks will give you something you can return to after the live discussion and build into a growing strategic archive. This starts with my most recent slide deck presented last weekend on the most plausible scenario for $6 gas.

• A Quarterly Founders-Only Strategic Briefing
Once each quarter, I will hold a private briefing exclusively for Founding Members: the Quarterly Strategic Outlook.

These briefings will be different from my regular Live Briefings. Rather than focusing primarily on the immediate news cycle, I will step back and examine the larger strategic picture: what has changed, what I have learned, where my analysis has been wrong or needs revision, and what I believe we should be watching in the months ahead.

There will also be substantial time for Founders-only Q&A.

Our first Founders-only briefing will be:

I will provide Founding Members with the Zoom information and additional details as we get closer to the date.

This Benefit Is Permanent

Most importantly, this is not a limited-time promotion.

As a Founding Member, you will receive these benefits for as long as you remain a Founding subscriber.

Over time, I hope the Quarterly Strategic Outlooks and Live Briefing Intelligence Decks become something more than individual subscriber perks. Together, they will create a growing archive of how I was thinking about major strategic questions at particular moments—and how that thinking changed as events unfolded.

That is particularly important to me.

The goal of our Substack has never been simply to predict tomorrow’s headline. It is to develop better ways of understanding escalation, power, strategy, and the choices that shape international conflict.

You supported that project from the beginning.

This is one way I can give something back.

Thank you for being Founding Members—and for helping build this community with me.

I look forward to seeing you on September 27.

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