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Escalation Trap

Escalation Trap tracks the trajectory of the Iran war in real time, equipping you with frameworks to recognize shifts in escalation, anticipate what comes next, and understand the strategic and economic consequences before they become conventional wisdom.

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IRAN’S STRATEGY FOR THE U.S. MIDTERMS: MAXIMUM POLITICAL PRESSURE ON TRUMP

Escalation Trap This Week — August 17, 2026

LAST CALL: New York Strategy Seminar — August 19

The response to the New York Strategy Seminar has been fantastic, and I just want to make sure everyone who is interested has a chance to sign up.

Announcing the New York Strategy Seminar — August 19

Iran and the Most Dangerous Midterms in Our Lifetime

IRAN’S ENDGAME: WAIT OUT TRUMP

Breaking Analysis — August 13

How to Become a Founding Member

I have received a number of questions from readers asking how to become a Founding Member—and I realize I have not explained clearly enough how the subscription options on Substack work.

A New Benefit for Founding Members

When I launched our Substack, many of you took a chance on this project before there was any guarantee of where it would go.

Trump’s Unilateral Demands, Iran Doubles Down on Hard Power — A Collision Course

Escalation Trap This Week – Staying Ahead of the Risks

THE EXIT TRAP

Five questions from my subscribers that reveal what comes next in the Iran war

Live with Prof Robert Pape: Assessing Pape Currie Conversation 3 Weeks Later

A recording from Prof Robert Pape's live video

Link for Today's Live Briefing at 2pm ET

In 55 Minutes